Just like WA-08, it's still a squeaker in Oregon, tied at 47, but Smith has a lead of some 3,400 votes. But, the remaining ballots to be counted are primarily in heavily Democratic Multnomah (Portland) and Lane (Eugene) counties. That's about 32% of the total vote still out there.
Sources tell me that an overly long ballot is reportedly the problem with the count in Oregon, too. The longer ballot, chock full of intiatives, doesn't go through the machines as easily.
Long time politics watcher and pollster Tim Hibbits--the most reliable of the state's pollsters is standing by his prediction of a Merkley win.
"I still think Merkley is going to win," Hibbitts said. "But it's going to be tight, and a lot tighter than I thought it was going to be. We shall see."
Hibbitts said that in his 32 years as an election analyst, he has incorrectly predicted only two out of 900 races. "This could be a third," he said. "But I still feel confident that Merkley will win."
...
Hibbitts said this morning that he expects the remaining 190,000 Multnomah County will tip the race in Merkley's favor.
"If you look at the composition of the voter base that's still out, it's going to favor Merkley. But it is possible I will have to eat crow on this one."
More as the ballot counts trickle in.
Update: And more just came in. We're now at 80% counted, and Smith's lead is cut to just about 1,400 votes. Just over 30% of Lane Co. remains to be counted and 40% remains in Multnomah. That's a significant chunk of votes in very, very Democratic parts of the state.
There's ongoing discussion on the race in sarahlane's recommended diary.