According to CNN - whose numbers also appear in Kos' election results tracker - Republican Steve Stivers holds a commanding twelve-thousand-vote lead over Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy in the hotly contested race for the right to represent Ohio District 15 in Congress. These figures are incorrect; Stivers' lead is less than 3% of that reported by CNN.
District 15 includes over half of Franklin County, including most of the city of Columbus. Unfortunately - for Democrats, anyway - it also includes all of largely rural Madison and Union Counties, located west of Columbus. Madison and Union account for only 10-15% of the district's population, but those votes have proved crucial in the past. Two years ago, Kilroy defeated Deborah Pryce in the Franklin County portion of the district, but lost overwhelmingly in Madison and Union. Pryce eked out the win by 1,062 votes out of over 220,000 cast.
According to CNN, the current District 15 figures are as follows:
Franklin County, Stivers 123,322, Kilroy 123,001.
Madison County, Stivers 9,363, Kilroy 5,014.
Union County, Stivers 14,222, Kilroy 6,477.
Total District 15, Stivers 146,907, Kilroy 134,492.
So, Stivers leads by 12,415 votes, right? Well, actually, he doesn't. The figures CNN is reporting for Franklin County are actually the district totals. According to the Ohio Secretary of State's web site, the real numbers are these:
Franklin County, Stivers 99,737, Kilroy 111,510.
Madison County, Stivers 9,363, Kilroy 5,014. (unchanged)
Union County, Stivers 14,222, Kilroy 6,477. (unchanged)
Total District 15, Stivers 123,322, Kilroy 123,001.
The upshot of all this is that CNN double-counted heavily Republican Madison and Union Counties when calculating the district totals. Just like that, a narrow 321 vote lead (out of more than 270,000 votes cast) turned into a formidable 12,415 vote advantage.
According to the Columbus Dispatch, which had reported CNN's figures earlier today but has since corrected them, there are still thousands of provisional and absentee ballots to be counted. It may take at least ten days before the final figures are available, and both campaigns are optimistic that their candidates will prevail.
http://www.dispatch.com/...