There are already thousands of analysis of what went wrong and what went right for the Obama campaign and the McCain campaign. Let me foolishly add another analysis into this amazing story. Inspired by Michael Hart's the 100 and subsequent influence lists in hundreds of publications, I am going to list the most influential persons in making a president Obama, and I'm going to rank their level of influence.
Well, of course you all have been influential in making president Obama. You guys in this community have volunteered, spent time to call and money to donate, things that I unfortunately could not do as an observing foreigner. You have talked to your families and friends and co-workers and have had your yard sign stolen. But we have to admit that there are several individuals who disproportionately influenced this turn of event more than you, for better or worse.
Of course, many would disagree with my list and think that my argument is false. You are most welcome to disagree and air your opinion and inform me if I'm misinformed. Most likely you have your own list in mind, so let us all know for fun.
The first list will be numbered from the most influential to the least. In the second part I will have the honorable mention list that I will not number because I think it's difficult to ascertain their level of influence. And of course, Barack Obama himself is absent from this list.
1. John Kerry
I have to say that if it were not for John Kerry, this day would never be here. His single act of selecting Barack Obama as the keynote speaker in the 2004 Democratic convention is enough reason for him to be on top of this list. What if John Kerry didn't select Obama? Obama would probably still be a senator, as his opponents dwindled and reduced to one Alan Keyes. But would he gain such prominence without the speech? There is not much chance to showcase Obama in a national scene, and he might had to pursue his chances in other years, which might not have the same condition as it is this year: 8 years of Bush administration and an economic crisis.
It's true that there are people who pushed and persuaded John Kerry to pick Obama as the keynote speaker, but in the end it's John Kerry himself, after meeting with Obama, who made the choice. John Kerry is in my mind, and without doubt, the most influential person in creating a president Obama.
2. George W. Bush
I think it was Chris Rock who said: "George Bush fucked it up so bad that Americans are willing to try a black man by the name Barack Hussein Obama." Obama impeccably has a great sense of timing. He truly understands the "urgency of now" - it is the reason that Obama chose to run for the presidency in 2008 and not to postpone it in any other year. George Bush really really messed things up. Two wars: one based on deceit; A record budget deficit; unbelievable level of incompetence; and America's economy in recession.
If Obama were to run in 2012 or 2016, it would not be after the Bush administration. And if Gore won back in 2000 or Kerry won back in 2004, there would not be a president Obama. George Bush is very influential in creating Obama presidency as a historical accident.
3. David Axelrod & David Plouffe
The brains behind Obama's campaign strategy and tactics, Obama is truly blessed with their no-nonsense approach and a relatively small ego for people as powerful as them. I put them together because before any authoritative book on the campaign is out, it is hard for me to imagine which one of them has more influence in the campaign. If separated, I would probably put David Axelrod first before Plouffe. However, I think it's fair to put them together.
We might not know exactly their day-to-day work, but we can judge the result from the image of Obama: calm, cool, collected, with great judgment and temperament to be envied. We know now how Obama managed to beat the Clinton machine in the long-fought primary, from state to state. We've seen the leaked spreadsheet and learned how prescient someone is inside Obama campaign.
Obama's presidential campaign will be studied for years to come, not just in US but in the whole wide world. And behind that well-oiled machine, beside the captain Barack Obama himself, are David Axelrod and David Plouffe.
4. John McCain & Sarah Palin
John McCain made many decisions that helped paved the way for an Obama presidency, all of them misguided. Yes, Bush helped Obama much more than any Republican candidate could, but McCain helped Obama get at least 349 electoral votes.
You might wonder why I put him high in the influence list. Wouldn't the result be the same if it were any other Republican candidate running? It's hard to say. It might had been tougher with Huckabee or a Romney (say what you will about Mormons, I believe Republicans will always vote for their candidate, whether it's Giuliani or Mickey Mouse). But here's what certain: there are so many points in the campaign where it felt that an Obama presidency became more certain, many of them coming from McCain's ill-advised decisions: selection of Sarah Palin, suspension of Campaign, his ever negative campaigning, and so on.
I think Sarah Palin shouldn't be in a separate entry because whatever she does, it's inexplicably linked to John McCain's judgment. Any moronic statements she made only reinforced McCain's poor judgment. She might be more detrimental to the ticket and actually lost McCain more votes than McCain's antics, but it was McCain who made that fatal decision to pick her out of Alaska. In other words, Sarah Palin is nothing without John McCain.
5. Hillary Clinton
If Hillary Clinton didn't run this year and Obama had to fight, say, John Edwards, for sure the path to victory would be much different and probably harder for Obama in the general election. Hillary's resilience in the primaries really gave Obama the baptism by fire - and a bunch of gray hairs.
Name them all: Wright, Ayers, Rezko, all have been shot at Obama and he managed to deflect them with grace and, in the case of Wright and Rezko, came out stronger than before: by giving the speech on race and by meeting the editors head on to answer everything about Rezko. He immunized himself from the same attacks for the general election, all thanks to Hillary Clinton.
But that might still happen even without Hillary Clinton in the democratic primaries. Hillary's influence in shaping Obama's ascent is actually her name: Clinton. People could see for themselves how Obama ran his campaign compared to the supposedly experienced veteran. Obama's primary win was much more impressive than if it were against a Richardson or Biden. It also prepared Obama's campaign for the fifty state strategy as the primaries dragged to the very end.
I don't know where to put Bill Clinton as I don't know the extent of his influence in Hillary's campaign. No doubt he played a big part. But if he were to be mentioned at all, he would be put together with Hillary (as where he belongs).
6. Howard Dean
Doctor Dean was the first to try the grassroots movement in modern politics. He was the proponent of the fifty state strategy. He understood the power of the internet to organize and tried it. All of which were exploited to perfection later by Obama.
As the head of DNC, he also had some influence with super-delegates to support Obama. It also seems to me that Howard Dean thinks that Obama is his "political heir." I don't know exactly what he does behind the scenes in the primaries, but I am sure that it is quite influential.
7. Oprah Winfrey
This might be a controversial pick, but I believe that she is quite influential in the early stages of the primary. Her endorsement gave Obama some airtime in the media and she might have swayed some voters early in the primaries and caucuses. It is difficult to ascertain the influence of endorsements in general, but I think early endorsements were much more influential that late endorsements, especially in the primaries. That is why I put her in this list.
Honorable Mention List
I am unable to list their influence in order of importance because there are still many things not yet revealed in this campaign, and so it's very difficult to ascertain the level of influence these individuals gave in the making of Obama's presidency.
Michele Obama
Obviously belonging in the influential list somewhere, but I don't know yet how influential she is in the daily running of Obama. Is she a close confidante to Obama in the whole campaign? Is she more passive and only acted as general adviser to Obama? I do not know whether her actions made the difference or not in Obama's chances in the election, so I couldn't put her in the list.
Jeremiah Wright
He's the man who gave Obama his Christian identity. He's the man who gave Obama "hope." He's also the man who almost sank Obama's presidential chances. But that also gave Obama the chance to rise to the occasion and brought the question of Race into the race, forcing many people to ask themselves about racial relations. What surprised me was how Wright became unhinged in his press conference, which prompted Obama to severe relations with Wright and his church. As I've mentioned it before, I believe that it was a deliberate ploy by Wright to give Obama a perfect excuse to once and for all deal with this potential problem by severing a very close bond. But I don't know whether it would make a difference in Obama's chance for better or worse to become president. What do you think?
Colin Powell
Colin Powell, a moderate Republican, gave a ringing endorsement to Barack Obama, giving him a bump in the poll. However, I think that this influence is much less than any on the list I've made. At most, I think he solidified some moderates and conservatives already on the fence.
Madelyn Dunham & Stanley Ann Dunham
Obama said that the strength he has, he got from his grandmother. Definitely they have been unbelievable influential in creating his character. Even so, I couldn't put them in any list above because I don't know what kind of direct influence they made to make Obama president.
Martin Luther King, Jr.
He will be the only historical figure I will mention, for obvious reasons. The history of Martin Luther King made the story of Barack Obama more dramatic. I cannot help but think how biblical the story is: Martin Luther King's speech a day before his assassination gave me goosebumps every time I think about it now that I see President Elect Barack Obama. But if I include him in the list above, I might have to include many other historical figures: Abraham Lincoln, Rosa Parks, LBJ, ... and I wouldn't know where to stop (Ts'ai Lun?).
You!
Just like that Time person of the year edition! Ha ha ha!
So, anyone I'm missing? Have I messed up the list? Do you have a better argument? Let everybody know!