Tuesday was a joyful and sad night. We stood in downtown Colorado Springs and watched the election called for Barack and then listened to the acceptance - Anna stood and cried for joy as she listened.
Yet, the results in Anna's race really disappointed - a wider losing margin than 2006. And then the pain really hit me today when reviewing the numbers.
El Paso County improved a lot at the Presidential level this year.
In 2004:
Total presidential votes for Bush and Kerry: 239,009
Bush Votes: 161,361 - 66.7%
Kerry Votes - 77,648 - 32.11%
In 2006:
Total presidential votes for McCain and Obama: 260,584
McCain votes: 155,914 - 58.97%
Obama votes: 104,670 - 39.59%
This was a great result. Once again, the relationship of the last twenty years - get more than 38% of El Paso County votes as a D and you win statewide and national races in Colorado - held for both Barack and Mark Udall.
My sadness below:
But this did not translate down the ticket.
In 2006 (I use this because 50% of the House races were uncontested Rs in 04):
Total votes: 162,534
Votes for Rs: 105,555
Votes for Ds: 56,979
In 2008:
Total votes: 244,500
Votes for Rs: 154,024
Votes for Ds: 90,475
Please note - 10,769 of the gain is in a district that was uncontested in 2006.
So, lets assume the D in the uncontested race in 2006 would have gotten just 50% of what he got this year. That would make:
Ds in 2006: 62,363
Ds in 2008: 90,475
Net change: 28,113
Rs in 2006: 105,555
Rs in 2008: 154,024
Net change: 48,469
Net R advantage: 20,356
So while Barack had a net gain of over 70,000 votes versus Kerry, we had a net loss of 20,356 versus 2006 at the state house candidate level in a county that has seen the R registration advantage drop from 2006 to 2008.
The concern is that we saw almost 14% of the voters entering the ballot box and voting for Obama did not vote for a Democratic State House candidate. In at least three races the margin of loss was less than 9% - and if those margins were half what they were, the race would be termed competitive. On the republican side the number was a miniscule 1.2%. If the spread had just been 1.2% for the Ds, that would be 12,938 votes. Over eight districts, that would be 1,500 votes per district. If allocated in proportion to the percentage of D votes by district, it would have pushed three races to less than a 52/48 margin - well contestable in 2010.
Unfortunately, I can tell you many of the experienced candidates here are deciding there is no value in staying as active candidates. It is depressing. We are becoming a one race candidate area.