Yes, you heard me, Houston, Texas is now blue.
Houston joins the ranks of other blue Texas cities, namely Austin, Dallas, and El Paso. See a a trend? Well, you should. All of the largest population centers in Texas are becoming far more favorable for Democrats. If this trend keeps up, and by all predictions it is expected to, Texas will undoubtedly become more competitive in Congressional, Gubernatorial, and Senate races.
Numbers and details below the fold...
For those of you not from Texas, Harris County is home to Houston and most of its 4 million residents - to put it in perspective, it's more populous than some states.
So, how did we fare this cycle?
The Good:
For the first time in decades, a Democratic Presidential candidate and a Democratic Senate candidate won the county. We also won the straight-ticket vote by an excess of 47,000 votes (Republicans won by an excess of 45,000 in 2004), despite the underwhelming albeit record-breaking turnout (62.6%, up from 58% in '04) and low new-registrations.
With regard to county-wide races, Democrats flipped 24 of 27 Republican judicial seats, as well 3 out of six administrative seats: County Sheriff, County Attorney, & District Clerk. Couple that with our amazing Democratic Mayor, Bill White, and our majority-Democratic City Council, and you have a BLUE city!
Area Democratic Congressional Representatives Al Green, Shiela Jackson Lee, and Gene Green all kept their seats.
Fort Bend County, former home to Tom DeLay, which includes a few cities within the Greater Houston area, also experienced record Democratic turnout (67.6%). Dems won the day with respect to straight ticket voting, edging out Republicans by a few thousand. With rapid development and strong minority growth, expect it to switch in coming years.
Similar victories were seen all across Texas. Democrats netted +3 seats in the Texas House, while Republicans lost 6, bringing the total to 76-74 (R-D) - though that number may change to 75-75 as a result of a recount. Again, to put things in perspective, this is our third straight cycle of positive gains - the trend is in our favor. Republicans lost 6 seats.
The Bad:
Rep. Nick Lampson (TX CD-22) lost his one-term seat to Pete Olsen, despite superb congressional performance and a fierce campaign. The loss was expected, as the district was drawn by DeLay and his ilk to deliver Republican victories. Michael Skelly (TX CD-7) failed to unseat Republican Rep. John Culberson, despite Skelly's incredible ground-game, fundraising prowess, and strong Democratic turnout. Again, these districts are not seriously competitive the way they're currently drawn.
County Judge Ed Emmett, who latched onto the aurora of Mayor Bill White, defeated his Democratic challenger, David Minceberg, as did Tax Collector / Assessor Paul Bettencourt (R). Republican D.A., Pat Lykos, narrowly defeated former Houston Chief of Police, Clarence Bradford by a margin of only a couple thousand votes.
Why didn't we sweep the entire county? Low turnout.
Grossly substandard Hispanic turnout (40-50%), a probable result of the bruising primary, and average general turnout (only +4.5% since '04) prevented Democrats from sweeping as many had projected.
What's next:
The trends are in our favor. Democrats have been making consistent gains for the past few election cycles. Major urban centers have turned blue, and with Houston finally joining in, it appears Texas will undoubtedly become more competitive in Congressional and Senate races, and possibly in the Presidential.
Based on rapid Hispanic and Asian growth in the area, I'd wager that Harris County should turn fully blue within the next few years.
Redistricting is due to occur in '11, after the Census in '10. Harris County will likely gain one new Congressional District. If we keep up our amazing progress in taking back the Texas House, we should have the majority in time for redistricting. If that happens, and I'm confident that it will, expect Culberson, Olsen, and McCaul to face grave threats.
For those of you who'd like to learn more, I strongly recommend you check out the following Texas blogs:
Off the Kuff
Burnt Orange Report