The Associated Press has called MD-01 for Frank Kratovil.
ANNAPOLIS, Md. (AP) - Democrat Frank Kratovil has defeated Republican Andy Harris to win a seat that has been held by the GOP for 18 years in Maryland's tight 1st District congressional race.
With the first of two rounds of absentee ballots counted, Kratovil had 49 percent of the vote to 48 percent for Harris and 2 percent for Libertarian Richard Davis.
Kratovil's election-night lead of 915 votes more than doubled to 2,003 after the first absentee ballot count was completed Friday.
About 4,800 provisional ballots will be counted Monday and an unknown number of absentee ballots will arrive by mail for a final count Nov. 14, but it would be nearly impossible for Harris to reverse the trend in which he has been losing nine of the 12 counties in the district.
I think it's way to early to do so, but who am I to question the Associated Press?
Now, I do think it's WAY too early to call. There are 5,000 provisional votes, and the AP keeps saying "unknown amount: of absentees. The Kratovil campaign speculates it's 6,000. My figures from the Board of Elections site say it's closer to 8,000.
From Wednesday morning:
Frank M. Kratovil, Jr. Andy Harris Richard James Davis Other Write-Ins
Anne Arundel 25,523 28,373 1,357 54
Baltimore 13,880 19,659 825 24
Harford 24,074 33,959 1,626 44
Caroline 6,175 5,426 369 16
Cecil 18,643 17,992 1,189 31
Dorchester 7,605 5,498 385 9
Kent 5,728 2,846 150 11
Queen Anne's 11,545 9,457 368 13
Somerset 5,179 3,474 160 3
Talbot 9,523 7,378 328 16
Wicomico 20,591 15,487 708 31
Worcester 12,448 10,449 459 25
160,914 159,998 7,924 277
329,113
From Friday's report with ALL Round 1 absentee vote totals:
COUNTY KRATOVIL HARRIS DAVIS OTHER
Anne Arundel 27,166 29,996 1,452 64
Baltimore 14,854 20,776 890 24
Harford 25,384 35,517 1,752 53
Caroline 6,470 5,639 385 17
Cecil 19,541 18,800 1,245 32
Dorchester 8,016 5,783 409 9
Kent 6,281 3,133 171 12
Queen Anne's 12,281 10,059 400 16
Somerset 5,448 3,626 166 4
Talbot 10,452 8,186 357 20
Wicomico 21,901 16,442 784 34
Worcester 13,703 11,537 507 27
Totals 171,497 169,494 8,518 312
349,821
So, given the county by county numbers, and the amount of absentees received, here's what I get for what's still out there:
| AB REC'D | FRIDAY MINUS WEDENSDAY | AB LEFT? |
Anne Arundel | 4,297 | 3,371 | 926 |
Baltimore | 2,839 | 2,156 | 683 |
Harford | 4,464 | 3,003 | 1,461 |
Caroline | 792 | 525 | 267 |
Cecil | 2,450 | 1,763 | 687 |
Dorchester | 1,149 | 720 | 429 |
Kent | 1,027 | 862 | 165 |
Queen Anne's | 1,872 | 1,373 | 499 |
Somerset | 726 | 428 | 298 |
Talbot | 2,635 | 1,770 | 865 |
Wicomico | 3,484 | 2,344 | 1,140 |
Worcester | 3,074 | 2,393 | 681 |
| 28,809 | 20,708 | 8,101 |
Anyone help me find the real number of absentees still out there?
I just hope the AP hasn't jumped the gun on this one.
UPDATE: Thanks to Von Nugget for showing me the error of my ways. I mistakenly assumed all returned absentee ballots would have Congressional votes on them. That's not necessarily the case. For there to be about 3600 ballots out of the 28000 returned with no Congressional choice is entirely reasonable, considering what we saw in Election Day results. I knew I was missing something! Thanks Von Nugget!