During the last week of the presidential contest, there was a lot of interest as to which red states Barack Obama would visit. Speculation ran wild as the polls tightened in Georgia, North Dakota, Montana and Arizona. Some even went so far as to suggest that he visit Tennessee and Kentucky. Instead, Obama visited Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado. Missouri, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Florida (you remember Florida, right? with the 1st black president? or is that with the 1st real and 1st virtual black presidents?). Oh Yea. And North Carolina and Virginia. Finally, on a day in which Barack Hussein Obama would be the focal point of a defining moment of historic change, he made one more visit. Instead of going home after voting on November 4th with Michelle, Malia and Sasha in Chicago (hopefully for himself!), Barack Obama went to Indiana.
Is this ok, Michelle?
No! No it isn't,Barack! Enough of this Bi-Partisan BS! Vote for Obama!
After all, he could have gone home and celebrated...
The NCIN Primary: May 6, 2008
When Obama came within 2 points of Hillary Clinton in the Indiana portion of the NCIN Primary, I took note. Indiana? Crimson Indiana? Indiana had even stayed "Reliably Red" in 1976, 1992 and 1996 while Ohio, Tennessee and Kentucky all went blue in all three elections. Red, since 1968. But Barack did not just come within 2 points of Hillary in the Indiana Primary, he also received 39% of the "white" vote. In Indiana!
Having totally defeated Hillary in the North Carolina portion of the NCIN Primary by 56% to 42%, Obama's narrow defeat in Indiana could be taken as victory, of sorts. African Americans constituted 33% of North Carolina's Democratic Primary voters, but were only 14% of Indiana's. As "red" and "white" are often synonymous in American politics (at least since 1968 when the Republican Party adopted an anti-civil rights agenda), many thought that Obama would suffer the same fate in Indiana that Hillary had in NC - a decisive defeat. But when Barack lost the Indiana Primary by only 1.4%, it indicated that he could win just about everywhere. Many considered the Indiana result to be the final blow to Hillary's hope that she could convince enough super-delegates that Obama was unelectable in the general election due to his "inability" to attract the votes of "hard working white people".
Maverick, Not a Sidekick
On numerous occasions on Countdown w/ Keith Olbermann, Newsweek's senior Washington Correspondent Howard Fineman has referred to Obama's "Over the Horizon Vision" - his ability to see things as they will be while others are dazed and confused by current events. An excellent example of Obama's OTH-vision is his October 2, 2002 anti-Iraq War speech:
...I know that even a successful war against Iraq will require a US occupation of undetermined length, at undetermined cost, with undetermined consequences. I know that an invasion of Iraq without a clear rationale and without strong international support will only fan the flames of the Middle East, and encourage the worst, rather than best, impulses of the Arab world, and strengthen the recruitment arm of al-Qaeda.
More than five months before the actual invasion of Iraq, Barack displayed an understanding of how the world really works that was absent in more "experienced" politicans. For example, Hillary Clinton's memorable Iraqi War musings on the Senate floor a week after Obama's speech:
And two weeks after Obama's near prescient anti-Iraq War speech, while speaking at the New Hampshire Jefferson-Jackson Dinner, Senator John R. Edwards said:
I understand that there are people here, including friends of mine, who don’t agree with my vote in favor of the Iraq Resolution that has passed the Senate. I respect the honest differences on this issue, and we all should. Let me tell you why voted the way I did. I studied this issue for months as a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee. And let me tell you, Saddam Hussein has been obsessed with getting chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons for more than 20 years. He has chemical and biological weapons now, and he has used them – even on his own people – in the past. He started a war. Every day, he gets closer to nuclear weapons. I simply believe we cannot allow this to happen.
Over the last few months I’ve been very involved with the congressional investigation into whether we could have prevented the 9/11 attacks. I don’t ever want us to have to ask whether we could have prevented Saddam from getting his hands on nuclear weapons. In the end and in my heart, I believe Saddam’s arsenal of mass distraction [sic!] is a grave threat to us and our allies, and eliminating that threat is the right thing to do.
When Obama spoke out against going to war in Iraq most Americans were still looking for payback for al-Qaeda's 9/11 attacks, and any Arab would do. He refused to go along with the ensuing madness just to get along with his fellow Americans. This was an early indicator of an aspect of Obama's political personality that we would all become more aware of over the next six years. Obama often follows his own inner voice as to which course of action is going to have the most long-lasting positive effect, even when multitudes are shouting "You're wrong!" Doggonit! Is Obama a true maverick? You Betcha! Link to "maverick" due to current miss-equating with John McCain. Also.
Indiana Instead
Obama didn't do well in Indiana just because he is from Indiana's western neighbor-state. A more pertinent reason for Barack's success in Indiana was actually one of his most maveriky of moves of the entire campaign. One that truly required "OTH-vision". While everyone else was headed to Memphis,TN on April 4, 2008 to memorialize the 40th anniversary of the assassination of The Reverend Dr Martin Luther King,Jr., Obama went to Indiana, instead. Many saw this Indiana trip as a example of his "taking the black vote for granted", and a big mistake. Obama, however, was in it to win IT! With the IT being POTUS! And he knew that his path to the White House would not only require becoming the Democratic nominee, it would also require winning a sizable portion of the white vote in the general election. If he could do well Indiana it would go a long way to disproving Hillary's assertion about how "hard-working white people" would vote in the GE.
Bill Clinton won in 1992 with only 39% of the white vote, but that was in a true three-way race. Al Gore was able to win the popular vote in 2000 with 42% of the white vote; unfortunately, the other 58% of white voters didn't mind the guy who came in second becoming president-select. In the 2004 election, John Kerry won only 41% of the white vote yet just narrowly lost. So 42% of the white vote appeared to be the baseline that Obama would have to reach in the general election in order to become the 44th POTUS. Lily Iowa was nice. Without Iowa, Hillary would be 44. But Iowa's lilies had been mostly blue in the past. In all 4 presidential elections between 1988 to 2000, Iowa bloomed true blue. Iowa turning red in 2004 was the anomaly. Getting Iowa back would be nice. But getting Indiana? Lily pink for four decades Indiana? 88% white and 7% black Indiana? That would truly be the answer to many pressing electability questions.
For comparison, in the 2008 presidential elections, African-Americans made up 20% of the electorate in Virginia (whites 70%) and 23% of the electorate in NC (whites 72%).
Using Robert Kennedy's April 4,1968 campaign visit to Indianapolis as a hook, Obama visited Fort Wayne,IN (you know, while everyone else was in Memphis) and gave a speech memorializing both King and Kennnedy:
And when [King] was killed the following day, it left a wound on the soul of our
nation that has yet to fully heal. And in few places was the pain more pronounced than in Indianapolis, where Robert Kennedy happened to be campaigning. And it fell to him to
inform a crowded park that Dr. King had been killed. And as the shock turned toward
anger, Kennedy reminded them of Dr. King’s compassion, and his love. And on a night
when cities across the nation were alight with violence, all was quiet in Indianapolis.
One month before the NCIN Primary, on the 40th anniversary of the assassination of Martin Luther King, Barack Obama, much to the chagrin of many of his supporters, was in Indiana instead of Memphis. A month later, the people of Indiana returned his show of respect by giving him a de facto primary victory. Six months after that, on another "4th" that will forever be etched in the annals of American History, in u-mon our-story, Barack Hussein Obama returned to Indiana.
Seekinga transcendent victory, Democrat Barack Obama made a final-hour push for Republican-leaning Indiana on Tuesday after casting his own ballot with his young daughters at his side. "It's going to be tight as a tick here in Indiana," Obama told volunteers in Indianapolis trying to get out the vote for the Democratic ticket with only seven hours to go in the area's balloting. "So the question is who wants it more."
Obama traveled to Indianapolis for final campaign stop to encourage voters in Indiana to support the Democratic candidate from next door. He helped about two dozen members of United Auto Workers Local 550 in Indianapolis work the phones at their union hall.
"I think we can win Indiana, otherwise I wouldn't be in Indiana," he said.
Obama was targeting other swing states in the final hours of voting by doing an hour and a half of satellite television interviews from a Chicago hotel room. The interviews were with local news stations in Florida, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Nevada, Missouri.
Democratic presidential candidate, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., talks on the phone with a voter at the UAW Local 550 Union Hall in Indianapolis, Ind., Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2008. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Not Georgia, North Dakota, Montana or Arizona. Not Tennessee nor Kentucky. Needlesstosay, Obama lost these states. Just as he knew he would. That's the reason why he had to pass them by. But he won Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia. The fact that Virginia had been red in every presidential election since 1968 made Obama's victory there one for the ages (see Barack & Awe in Virginia by RenaRF for all the wonderful details). As of 2:00 p.m. EST, on Nov 8, 2008, Missouri is still up in the air. McCain lead at that time by less than 6,000 votes, by less than 0.2% of the total vote. Missouri may turn out to be Obama's closest win, or Missouri's greatest embarrassment, but Missouri was blue in 1976, 1992 and 1996. Indiana, like Virginia, was ruby red. For four decades.
Yet, Obama also won Indiana. You know, Reliably Red Indiana! And this time, unlike in the NCIN Primary, it was an actual win. He won Indiana by a little more than 25,000 votes, just less than 1% of the state's total vote. He also won 45% of the white vote in Indiana, 2% higher than the national average. Of the 9 states that Obama flippedfrom red to blue on November 4, 2008, Indiana has to be the sweetest. Kerry Lost Indiana to Bush in 2004 by 21 points. Gore lost it by 16 points. Clinton lost Indiana both times, by 5 and 6 points. Crimson Indiana? I.Don't.Think.So! Currently purple, trending blue.
We all knew that the first real black POTUS would have to be as damn close to perfect as is possible just to secure the nomination of a major party, let alone win the presidential election. And if not near-perfect, then far better than merely twice as good. He would have to be so good that Newsweek's senior Washington Correspondent would reverently refer to his "Over the Horizon Vision". So good, in fact, that when even you thought he should have gone to Memphis or Georgia or Arizona or even Montana, Barack Who's Sane Obama went to Indiana. Instead.