There is a battle royal brewing in the governor's race. It appears that Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson will challenge Gov. Rick Perry for the governorship of Texas in the spring of 2010.
This is will expose the major fault lines of of the current GOP. Rick Perry is very much in the cultural conservative camp. (This despite his initial backing of giving all girls of a certain age the HPV vaccine.) He is a culture warrior and part of the religious right.
Sen. Hutchinson has a reputation of being more in the country club set. Many in the GOP wanted her to challenge Perry back in 2006. In a recent interview she said the reelection of John Cornyn is helping her make up her mind.
All of this is occurring with the background of President-elect Obama increasing the Democratic vote totals in Texas by 670,000.
Texas had its three major population centers flip and turn blue this presidential cycle. African-American turnout was high, but in Harris County (Houston) Hispanic vote totals were disappointing. Even with that, Harris County flipped and, with continued work, stay blue.
All that said, the GOP primary battle will tell us a lot about how the single most important state to the Republican presidential chances is heading.
The GOP primary features some of the states most conservative voters. Sen. Hutchinson is very popular and Rick Perry was reelected in a four-way mess back in 2006. It is against that back drop the potential primary battle takes shape. Can Perry rally his base to keep his job or can the popular, but not ultra-conservative, Hutchinson turn out enough moderate GOP voters to kick Perry out in the primary?
The direction of the GOP may be determined in this battle AND if major fractures become full scale schisms, can the Democrats flip Texas faster than expected? March of 2010 is a long time away, but the ground work for that primary is being laid now.