(Crossposted from The Field.)
The three big-name candidates mentioned for Obama's potential Secretary of State are New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and Indiana Senator Richard Lugar.
At the jump, we vet them and others being mentioned...
(You can probably ignore the right-wing efforts to put peter-principle hacks like Rand Beers and Richard Holbrooke on the short list: Obama's going to need someone with a pre-existing high profile because the appointment is also about sending a message to the rest of the world, and he needs a Secretary that the other 700 members of the campaign's foreign policy team will not attempt to subvert or roll. Obama needs a Bigfoot in that position. And while Senator Hillary Clinton of New York is also mentioned in the media short lists, I'll just say this: As the vice presidential hunt went, so goes the search for a Secretary of State. Not. Going. To. Happen.)
From a cabinet diversity standpoint Richardson, as a Mexican-American, and Lugar, as part of that endangered minority known as Republicans, each would embody a symbol that Obama will want to send in his overall cabinet roster. Still, there are other high profile Hispanic-Americans (Federico Pena?) and Republicans (Colin Powell?) that may fill other key administration posts.
Here's Kerry's big advantage over both Richardson and Lugar, in two words: Joe Biden.
Biden will be involved in the Secretary of State choice - he probably will even have veto power - because he's going to be Obama's wing man on foreign policy. He'll want someone he can work with easily and daily. Given the "I'm more experienced" warfare in the Democratic primary debates for president between Richardson and Biden - they didn't seem to appreciate each other much - the New Mexico governor is probably in a weak position for this post (and since foreign policy isn't Richardson's only area of policy dominance, there may be other major roles for him should he want to join the administration).
Biden and Lugar have been the ranking members for their parties on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. They have a very good working relationship. Each has served as the ranking minority member under the other as chairman, and they've worked particularly closely together on global warming and Pakistan policy. Lugar has also worked closely with Obama on nuclear nonproliferation policy. But I'm not sure that Lugar would accept a situation with Biden as the shadow secretary looking over his shoulder, and nor do I think that appointing Lugar would fulfill the "America's Back" message of Obama's ascendancy.
Lugar has a relatively paltry record on human rights - his appointment would signal a buzzkill to important parts of Obama's coalition, including the best members of his foreign policy team (Samantha and Zbignew, among them, who carry the human rights flag high), and a subplot drama would begin churning almost immediately upon his appointment that could derail much of the work ahead - compared to Kerry or Richardson.
By default, Kerry is the front runner and I opine that by every yardstick he ought to be: From the teamwork perspective, a Secretary of State Kerry in tandem with a Vice President Biden have a long-built synergy that would allow them to boldly remake America's role around the world. Both of them, although they're not widely seen as such, are visionaries on foreign policy. If I had to bet which of the three - Kerry, Richardson or Lugar - has the biggest list of new ideas for what he would take to the position, I'd put all my chips down on Kerry and the probability that he's already put it in memo form. If Biden agrees with those ideas - and chances are good that he does - we may see Kerry quickly named to the position as one of the first major appointments of the administration.
Press hackery and speculation aside: It won't be because Kerry went out on a limb and endorsed Obama before everybody else got on the bandwagon (but that doesn't hurt, not at all; and probably even more compelling for Obama is that Kerry is the guy who gave him the 2004 keynote speech slot that rocketed him into contention), but because Kerry would be the most qualified and enthusiastic workaholic for the position; one that knows in minute detail where the damage has been done - and where the bodies are buried - over so many years by disastrous US policy across the world and who has a plan to fix it.
If Obama and Biden are seeking a pro-active and self-motivated Secretary of State in harmony with their own visions, one that will command immediate respect, almost no second-guessing, and have a unifying effect on the rest of the foreign policy wonk world seeking to join the administration, Kerry is looking better and better for the position every day.
In sum: Kerry provides Obama and Biden the fastest route to making real change without provoking unwanted turbulence.
He's the no drama option.
Update: Another factor, because there is a kind of musical chairs going on in the US Senate with committee chairmanships provoked by Biden's ascension. The next three Democrats in line for the chairmanship of the Foreign Relations Committee are, in order of seniority, Chris Dodd, John Kerry and Russ Feingold. It's highly possible that Dodd won't want to let go of his Banking chairmanship, and thus a Kerry appointment could also result in the Senator from Wisconsin becoming the new leader of that key committee. From a progressive standpoint, all three of those guys would be pretty good chairmen, but Feingold perhaps the most interesting.