Then (NYT, Jan. 20, 2008):
It has been in vogue throughout the Bush years for Democrats to assert that the South is unredeemable and politically unnecessary. I remember seeing Kerry speak at Dartmouth College in the days before the 2004 New Hampshire primary, when he flatly told the audience that a Democratic nominee could win the presidency without worrying about the South. (He went on to test the formula; it didn’t work out so well.)
Two years later, Thomas F. Schaller, a political scientist and liberal blogger, won over a lot of his fellow progressives with an entire book devoted to the premise that Democrats should ignore the South and instead focus their finite resources on the growing and more diverse states in the West and Southwest. In "Whistling Past Dixie," Schaller marshaled a pile of statistics to argue, essentially, that the region’s long legacy of prejudice left it hopelessly blind to the nobility of the Democratic cause.
Now (NYT, Nov. 11, 2008):
"I think that’s absolutely over," said Thomas Schaller, a political scientist who argued prophetically that the Democrats could win national elections without the South.
The Republicans, meanwhile, have "become a Southernized party," said Mr. Schaller, who teaches at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County. "They have completely marginalized themselves to a mostly regional party," he said, pointing out that nearly half of the current Republican House delegation is now Southern. (Emphasis added.)
Tom, as some of you may know, covered the 2004 elections as a front-pager for Daily Kos. He's also been tirelessly promoting the ideas in his book, Whistling Past Dixie, for years. Hopeless tradmed schnooks like Matt Bai waved away all of Schaller's arguments, convinced that past was prologue.
And many others have tried to dismiss Schaller's point by angrily insisting he wants Democrats to "write off" the South entirely. That strawman, needless to say, is utterly bogus - Tom simply wanted to make sure we focus our resources where we can have the most success. Obviously there can and will be opportunities for us in the South (eg, Kay Hagan), and we should exploit those when possible.
But as the NYT recognized, Barack Obama's victory utterly vindicated the core of Schaller's thesis. Congrats, Tom - you earned this. You were ahead of the curve, and I'm glad to see you get proper recognition for it, at long last.
Now, what's next? :)