An editorial in the Gainesville Sun entitled "A reddish shade of blue" made some comments that relate to the diary I posted recently called "Did Obama Turn Florida Blue?"
The author admits to being surprised that Obama carried Florida. One of the premises of my piece was that anyone familiar with the 2006 statewide elections would not have been. He does agree with my assessment that this was not a watershed election and the state should be considered "purple" (hence his title). However, I can’t say I totally agree with his reasoning.
What proves how Red the state is to him is a lack of coattails for Obama. Why did the Democrats fail to unseat the "vulnerable" Diaz-Balart brothers?
Anyone familiar with these races knew they were really long shots. Raul Martinez has such a slimy past no one wanted to go near him. And while Joe Garcia was a compelling candidate, we still need to wait until more of the older Cuban generation dies off and relations with the Homeland are normalized under an Obama administration before that seat is going to change hands.
The author doesn’t mention the defeats of Ric Keller and Tom Feeney. I think these were enormous victories. Let’s not forget, FEENEY DREW HIS OWN DISTRICT! (Just as an aside, you may want to know that when Obama was in the Illinois State legislature he also redrew his state senate district. The guy is no wimp and is not shy about using any power that is available to him. As long as he uses his power to do good, that’s fine with me.)
I will acknowledge that because of our state’s size and diversity, and because of the large percentage of NPA voters, the concept of presidential coattails might be questionable here in Florida .
Of course, if the legislative and congressional districts weren’t so gerrymandered, I think we might have seen a different outcome and a greater coattail effect. Of the districts I’m familiar with, I know HD-3 had a chunk of black voters moved out, just like Bill Young’s CD-10.
But, it is precisely on this issue that the opinion piece writer and I converge. It turns out that what the author really wanted to talk about wasn’t just coattails:
Democrats gained just one congressional seat in Florida . More importantly, they hardly budged the solid Republican majority in the legislature. Republicans still outnumber Democrats by nearly two-to-one in both chambers.
So what difference does that make?
One word. Reapportionment.
[snip]
[T]he whole purpose of reapportionment is to retrench the ruling political class in power (Republicans) for another decade. That turns out to be easier than it sounds because, as it happens, the ruling political class (Republicans) pretty much have unlimited discretion to redraw congressional and legislative districts as they please.
To custom-design districts in such a way as to maximize the election of Republicans and minimize the election of Democrats.
The author mentions ways to struggle against this. Obviously, becoming the majority by 2012 is unlikely. But one possibility I haven’t been keying on is:
Or they can run a Democrat capable of beating the very popular (so far) Charlie Crist — somebody like, say, state Comptroller Alex Sink — and thus be in a position to veto any reapportionment plan that is blatantly gerrymandered.
He then describes the possibility of that happening:
Of beating Crist? Maybe better, depending on how things break over the next couple of years.
If Florida 's economy continues to get worse. Or if Floridians figure out that Crist, after all, really didn't make their property taxes and insurance premiums drop "like a rock." Or if the state's budget shortfall turns into such a fiscal train wreck that lawmakers run out of things to cut. Or if a hurricane bankrupts the state.
Or if Barack Obama's first two years as president turn out to be a smashing success.
"Part of it will depend on Obama's success," says UF political historian David Colburn. "If he's successful in addressing some of the problems, you'll see more support moving toward the Democratic Party nationally and in our state. If the Democrats can run a strong gubernatorial candidate the next time out, they can make a run at Charlie Crist."
He closes with an issue I’ve been harping on: getting the FairDistrictsFlorida.org initiatives on the ballot and passed in 2010.
Florida progressives need to understand that if something is not done about the impending reapportionment crisis, every Democratic gain that has been achieved since 2006 will be taken away in 2012.
We need to use our connections from the Obama campaign to get this job done. This needs to be the Florida Netroots major focus in the next two years. And every time we go to a gathering of cohorts from the Obama campaign we need to raise this as something worthwhile to work on.
And if you get a copy of the survey from David Plouffe about your experiences with the campaign, please bring up working on redistricting reform as a worthwhile issue for the Obama network to address here in Florida.
And as a final comment on the issue of coattails, I would like to point out that here in Leon County a political newcomer named Akin Akinyemi defeated an incumbent County Commissioner. Who would have thought it possible for a Black man with a funny name to do that? But then you can’t gerrymander a county-wide district.
Cross Posted From FlaPolitics.com