Lets role play, your name is Karl Rove, you have an IQ of 180 and no guiding moral principles. You have just been hired by the GOP to salvage the Republican brand after the disasters of 2006 and 2008. How would you go about this enormous task? You pour yourself a nice warm cup of coffee, grab your portable Machiavelli, and get to work. You ask yourself three important questions...
What went right?
The Republican brand sure did not do well this year.
Reaganomics are no longer selling. Economic conservatism resulted in the current crises and even the GOP endorsed almost a trillion dollars in a rescue package. The idea that government should stay out of the economy is not going to win you any new friends in 2010.
The neoconservative wing of the Republican party is even less popular. The war in Iraq is widely recognized as a disaster and until that conflict is resolved (which will not be any time soon) warmongering will remain a sure way to lose elections.
Lastly we come to social conservatism. Here results are mixed, on the abortion/contraception/sex education/euthanasia front Republicans again lost. Euthanasia spread from Oregon to Washington and California. South Dakota and Colorado defeated anti-abortion measures. But wait... A ray of hope. Three states passed man-woman marriage amendments in an otherwise progressive landslide. Arizona passed an amendment despite being the only state to previously defeat one, Florida passed its amendment reaching the 60% required to amend the Florida constitution, lastly liberal California passed its amendement despite blunt language that plainly stated the measure would eliminate existing rights. Clearly the anti gay marriage brand still sells, even at the worst of times. BINGO.
How do we make them fight each other?
Gay marriage is the perfect wedge issue. You could not invent a better way to divide the Democrats and make them fight one another. Black vs White, educated vs uneducated, urban vs rural, religious vs secular, old vs young. The possibilities are endless. With the Democrats making headway into the South and Midwest they are uniquely vulnerable to bludgeoning on the gay rights issue. AWESOME.
Where is the passion?
The Democrats had a near monopoly on excitement this election cycle. Hope and change became the official slogans of the campaign. Thousands gathered to listen to Obama's speeches. Did the Republicans run out of passion? No, they just did not have any for McCain. Two candidates managed to mobilize and inspire the Republican base this year, Mike Huckabee in the primary, and Sarah Palin in the general election. What do these two have in common? Huckabee is an economic liberal, Palin is an all around moron, but they share one important trait, both are staunch social conservatives. If the crowds gathered for Palin rallies are any indication, this is what the base wants. CASE CLOSED.
Ok enough role playing, my predictions for 2010 and beyond; despite what some pundits say about the GOP needing to move to the center, they will do just the opposite, they will dial up the culture war to 11 and especially focus on opposition to gay rights for reasons stated above. This strategy will allow them to mobilize and whip up their base into action while at the same time creating numerous divisions in the Democratic tent. They will follow this course because that is the one area of politics where the majority still supports them, even in liberal states. So those that think that gay marriage will become a non-issue in a year or two, better prepare for a long war.
The real question is, will this pay off in the long term? My guess is that no, it will not. People are slowly getting used to the idea that gay people exist and are not going away; the youth is especially supportive of gay rights. Democrats like to talk about the youth vote being overwhelmingly liberal, this is misleading, as people grow up their priorities change and they become more conservative. But I dont think this will be true for gay rights. I can see how someone who begins to work and earn money will turn to the party that advertises low taxes, but I just dont see what could possibly change a gay right supporter into a homophobe. So I am cautiously optimistic, but it will be a tough few decades.