The latest article by Nate Silver on fivethirtyeight.com states that Al Franken could very well win the recount, according to his projection based on regression analysis.
UPDATE: I should also point out that the title of Silver's article is: "Projection: Franken to win Recount by 27 Votes." However, I didn't want the title of this diary to be quite so definitive due to the fact that Silver himself says in the article that we should not regard Franken as any more than a very slight favorite.
Nate Silver asserts that Al Franken may well win the Minnesota Senate recount by a razor-thin margin. His analysis has mainly to do with precincts where there have been no (or little) ballot challenges versus precincts that have had a lot or a fair amount of challenges.
Consider the following. In precincts where no challenges have been issued (these are the only precincts in which, in some sense, the results of the recount can be considered to be final and "official") Franken has gained a total of 34 votes, and Coleman a total of 6 votes, for a net gain by Franken of 28 votes. Moreover, in precincts where just 1 challenge has been issued, Franken has gained a net of 31 votes on Coleman, and in precincts where exactly 2 challenges have been issued, Franken has gained a net of 32 votes on Coleman
After having analyzed each precinct, Nate Silver opines that Al Franken is in a slightly stronger position to win.
An analysis of precinct-by-precinct returns available on the Secretary of State's website, however, suggests that Franken's position is somewhat stronger than it appears, and that he may in fact be the favorite to prevail in the recount process.
Using regression analysis, Silver has reasoned that Al Franken will barely squeak across the finish line:
...That is, Franken will gain a net of .837 votes for every 10,000 cast. With a total of 2,885,555 ballots having been recorded in the initial count, this works out to a projected gain of 242 votes for Franken statewide. Since Norm Coleman led by 215 votes in the initial count, this suggests that Franken will win by 27 votes once the recount process is complete (including specifically the adjudication of all challenged ballots).
Silver does give the caveat, however, that there is a margin of error for his analysis and that Franken is just barely the favorite to win, based on his analysis:
The error bars on this regression analysis are fairly high, and so even if you buy my analysis, you should not regard Franken as more than a very slight favorite.
Oh, please, let it be Al Franken! I just cannot stand the thought of Norm Coleman going back to the Senate.
Here's a link to the article:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/...
Here are the links to the recount as is currently stands:
Star-Tribune:
http://www.startribune.com/...
MN Secretary of State: http://electionresults.sos.state.mn....