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After what seemed to be, at times, an interminable election cycle, we are literally within less than six hours of Election Day in America (at least, if you are on the East Coast). It is almost hard to believe. And, on this last day, understandably, we have a flood of polling.

We actually see relatively few individual polls today, as we get 69 individual surveys. What we have, in volume, is national numbers. And what the national numbers are beginning to tell us is that there may be a potential landslide in our midst tomorrow.

Follow me for the...SNIFF!!!!...last edition of Following the Polls for the 2008 Election Cycle.

On Election Eve, perhaps not surprisingly, we see an absolute flood of national polling. After all, this is everyone’s last chance to posit their numbers. So, we have the traditional seven daily trackers, but we also have a total of SEVEN other national polls today, including the quasi-tracker.

The verdict? A solid Obama victory, from all of them. No exceptions. Indeed, all seven new national polls keep Obama at or above 50%. They also have McCain below 45%. Without exception.

The high-end estimate goes to both CBS News and Marist, who project a nine-point Obama victory. The low-end estimate goes to (as it has all year) the quasi-tracker from GWU/Battleground, although even that lead is now out to six points. The lesson therein: there is surprisingly little volatility here: the range falls in the rather tight range of 6-9 points.

Meanwhile, there is a little more spread in the seven daily tracking polls, but even there, the range has narrowed quite a bit. As it has throughout the election cycle, IBD/TIPP is the narrowest poll, but even it spread out to 48-43 today. On the high end was Gallup, who closed out their polling for the cycle with a report late last night projecting an eleven-point Obama win (53-42).

The main point—the average lead for Obama in the seven daily trackers today stands at 7.0%. That is not only virtually identical to what it was two weeks ago (slightly better, actually), but it is more than a half-point higher than the day before.

MARIST: Obama 53%, McCain 44%
CBS NEWS: Obama 51%, McCain 42%
NBC NEWS: Obama 51%, McCain 43%
IPSOS/MCCLATCHY: Obama 50%, McCain 42%
DEMOCRACY CORPS: Obama 51%, McCain 44%
FOX NEWS: Obama 50%, McCain 43%
GWU/BATTLEGROUND: Obama 50%, McCain 44%

GALLUP: Obama 53%, McCain 42%
ABC/WASHINGTON POST: Obama 53%, McCain 44%
ZOGBY: Obama 51%, McCain 44%
RASMUSSEN: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
RESEARCH 2000: Obama 51%, McCain 45%
DIAGEO/HOTLINE: Obama 50%, McCain 45%
IBD/TIPP: Obama 48%, McCain 43%

The statewide polling today, of course, focuses on the battleground states. No shocker there: is there any need to be polling Maryland on Election Eve??!!?? So, we see a lot of polling in the battlegrounds. The Chicken Littles of the world are probably in full panic about the Rasmussen and Strategic Vision polls out today, but the preponderance of the polling today is pretty darned positive for Obama.

Shockers: leads for Obama in Indiana and Montana, plus the FP’ed Democratic poll in Alaska showing Obama down just three in the Last Frontier. Downers: Two of the three big battlegrounds have at least one poll with a McCain lead. HOWEVER...others give Obama pretty solid leads.

All in all, I’d much rather be us than them....

ALASKA #1--Hays Research (D): McCain 48%, Obama 45%
ALASKA #2--Dittman (R): McCain 56%, Obama 37%
COLORADO #1--Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 47%
FLORIDA #1--Rasmussen: McCain 50%, Obama 49%
FLORIDA #2--Strategic Vision (R): Obama 49%, McCain 47%
FLORIDA #3--PPP: Obama 50%, McCain 48%
FLORIDA #4--Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 46%
FLORIDA #5--Quinnipiac: Obama 47%, McCain 45%
GEORGIA #1--SurveyUSA: McCain 52%, Obama 45%
GEORGIA #2--Strategic Vision (R): McCain 50%, Obama 46%
GEORGIA #3--PPP: McCain 50%, Obama 48%
INDIANA #1--PPP: Obama 49%, McCain 48%
INDIANA #2--Zogby: McCain 49%, Obama 44%
MAINE--SurveyUSA: Obama 58%, McCain 38%
MICHIGAN--Mitchell Research: Obama 54%, McCain 40%
MISSOURI #1--SurveyUSA: Obama 48%, McCain 48%
MISSOURI #2--Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 49%
MISSOURI #3--PPP: Obama 49.4%, McCain 48.6%
MISSOURI #4--Zogby: Obama 47%, McCain 46%
MONTANA--PPP: Obama 48%, McCain 47%
NEVADA #1--PPP: Obama 51%, McCain 47%
NEVADA #2--Zogby: Obama 51%, McCain 43%
NEW HAMPSHIRE--UNH: Obama 53%, McCain 42%
NEW JERSEY--Rasmussen: Obama 57%, McCain 42%
NORTH CAROLINA #1--Rasmussen: McCain 50%, Obama 49%
NORTH CAROLINA #2--SurveyUSA: McCain 49%, Obama 48%
NORTH CAROLINA #3--PPP: Obama 50%, McCain 49%
NORTH CAROLINA #4--Zogby: McCain 49%, Obama 48%
OHIO #1--SurveyUSA: Obama 48%, McCain 46%
OHIO #2--U. of Cincinnati: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
OHIO #3--Rasmussen: Obama 49%, McCain 49%
OHIO #4--Strategic Vision (R): McCain 48%, Obama 46%
OHIO #5--PPP: Obama 50%, McCain 48%
OHIO #6--Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 44%
OHIO #7--Quinnipiac: Obama 50%, McCain 43%
PENNSYLVANIA #1--Strategic Vision (R): Obama 51%, McCain 44%
PENNSYLVANIA #2--PPP: Obama 53%, McCain 45%
PENNSYLVANIA #3--Muhlenberg: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
PENNSYLVANIA #4--Zogby: Obama 54%, McCain 40%
PENNSYLVANIA #5--Quinnipiac: Obama 54%, McCain 44%
VIRGINIA #1--Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 47%
VIRGINIA #2PPP: Obama 52%, McCain 46%
VIRGINIA #3--Zogby: Obama 51%, McCain 45%
WASHINGTON--Strategic Vision (R): Obama 55%, McCain 40%
WISCONSIN--Strategic Vision: Obama 53%, McCain 40%

Downballot, we see more sparse polling, since the top of the ticket is the big story today (of course). We can draw a few conclusions from the polls released today:

  1. Either SUSA has no friggin’ clue of how to poll Minnesota, or the Democrats are going to be disappointed there tomorrow.
  1. Liddy Dole, it would appear, is very much done in North Carolina.
  1. Virginia-05 just rocketed to the top of the charts for the "Upset Special" of 2008. A race that has gone from 24 points to 3 points in a month? Unreal. Go Tom Perriello.
  1. Election Day will not end tomorrow in Georgia in all likelihood.

AK-SEN--Hays Research (D): Mark Begich (D) 49%, Sen. Ted Stevens (R) 42%
AK-AL--Hays Research (D): Ethan Berkowitz (D) 49%, Rep. Don Young (R) 43%
GA-SEN #1--PPP: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 48%, Jim Martin (D) 46%
GA-SEN #2--SurveyUSA: Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 48%, Jim Martin (D) 44%
GA-SEN #3--Strategic Vision (R): Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) 48%, Jim Martin (D) 46%
GA-01--Valdosta State: Rep. Jack Kingston (R) 50%, Bill Gillespie (D) 32%
IN-GOV--PPP: Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) 60%, Jill Long Thompson (D) 37%
IN-09--Research 2000: Rep. Baron Hill (D) 53%, Mike Sodrel (R) 40%
ME-SEN--SurveyUSA: Sen. Susan Collins (R) 56%, Tom Allen (D) 42%
MN-03--SurveyUSA: Erik Paulsen (R) 46%, Ashwin Madia (D) 41%, Others 10%
MN-06--SurveyUSA: Rep. Michele Bachman (R) 46%, Elwyn Tinklenberg (D) 45%, Others 6%
MO-GOV #1--PPP: Jay Nixon (D) 58%, Kenny Hulshof (R) 38%
MO-GOV #2--SurveyUSA: Jay Nixon (D) 54%, Kenny Hulshof (R) 39%
MT-GOV--PPP: Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) 62%, Roy Brown (R) 36%
MT-SEN--PPP: Sen. Max Baucus (D) 71%, Bob Kelleher (R) 26%
MT-AL--PPP: Rep. Denny Rehberg (R) 60%, John Driscoll (D) 35%
NC-GOV #1--PPP: Beverly Perdue (D) 49%, Pat McCrory (R) 48%
NC-GOV #2--SurveyUSA: Beverly Perdue (D) 48%, Pat McCrory (R) 47%
NC-SEN #1--PPP: Kay Hagan (D) 51%, Sen. Liddy Dole (R) 44%
NC-SEN #2--SurveyUSA: Kay Hagan (D) 50%, Sen. Liddy Dole (R) 43%
PA-11--SurveyUSA: Lou Barletta (R) 51%, Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) 45%
VA-SEN--PPP: Mark Warner (D) 62%, Jim Gilmore (R) 36%
VA-05--SurveyUSA: Rep. Virgil Goode (R) 50%, Tom Perriello (D) 47%
WA-GOV--Strategic Vision: Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) 50%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

...And that, barring some late data, closes the books on Election 2008. It has been a pleasure compiling the numbers for the last month-and-change. Hope it has been useful to you. My home internet is still dead (now diagnosed as a problem with our external phone line on our second line), so if I don’t comment until tomorrow, that is why.

Those lucky enough to be off work tomorrow (this will be the first Election Day in 11 years that I can’t get off work), go finish the job for all of us. To quote the coach in one of my favorite films of all time ("Remember the Titans"):


Go get ‘em. See you all tomorrow.

Originally posted to Steve Singiser on Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 04:42 PM PST.


The Holy S&*t Poll For Today (11/3) Is....

16%12 votes
29%21 votes
6%5 votes
29%21 votes
1%1 votes
4%3 votes
1%1 votes
6%5 votes
2%2 votes
1%1 votes

| 72 votes | Vote | Results

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