Well, the 2008 election has (finally) drawn to a close -- other than the Louisiana runoffs and a couple recounts -- concluding a campaign season that seemed to last five campaign seasons. And with President-elect Obama, Vice President-elect Biden, and the incoming Cabinet all yet to be sworn in, the timing seems perfect to jump ahead to...the NEXT campaign season!
I speak not of next year's gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia. Those will be addressed in a later diary. Instead, I'll join the already overcrowded bandwagon and talk about the Senate (since it's only been diaried 79,342 times already).
Read below the fold...
Why is everyone talking about the Senate so much? Well, it's the most interesting aspect of the U.S. government right now for most of us political junkies. Democrats have de jure 56 seats to the Republicans' 42, and de facto claim a 58-42 majority. This is a hefty majority by modern historical standards (the Republicans haven't had a Senate majority so large since the 1920s, and Democrats haven't since the 1970s), yet we complain that it is still "not large enough" because 60 votes are required to shut down filibusters, and the GOP minority already set all-time records in the 110th Congress for filibusterin' and un-cloturin' (geesh, that Sarah Palin demon has to stop possessing me when I write diaries).
Whether we really do have enough votes to shut down most filibusters is a whole other topic, but the point is (to paraphrase an obnoxious commercial) they're our 60 seats and we want them now!
A little history: Midterm elections are famously unkind to the governing party in Washington (that is, the party controlling the White House), but there is evidence that this trend is nowhere near as reliable as it once was. In both 1998 and 2002, the President's party picked up House seats despite the historical odds, and in the latter case even picked up control of the Senate. Before 1998, no President's party had gained in the House since FDR's Democrats in 1934. 2006 was of course bad for the majority Republicans, but the preceding two midterm elections do call into question the reliability of history on this issue.
Second, Senate races are a different kettle of fish from House races. The entire 435-member House is up every two years, in every district and state nationwide, while Senate seats are staggered and regionalized from cycle to cycle. It's possible that Bush's Republicans would not have done so well in 2002 Senate races had the map that year not been Class II (a Senate class that is heavy in conservative states of the South and Plains and light in "big states"). And the President's party has been known to tread water or gain Senate seats even in midterm years in which that party suffers some House losses -- examples include the Democrats in 1962 and the Republicans in 1970 and 1982.
So the bottom line is that while history points to at least modest GOP gains in the House in 2010 (and the magnitude of that will depend heavily on Obama's success in his trying first two years), the jury is very much still out on whether the Democrats can actually gain Senate ground and top that elusive 60. Since the Republicans would need 40 seats to control the House and 9 to win the Senate, we can be almost certain that Democrats will still run Congress barring a 1994-style GOP tsunami (an unlikely proposition at this juncture).
Enough rambling, let's get busy:
Alabama -- Richard Shelby (R) running for 5th term
Outlook: Safe Republican
Shelby's approvals are quite high, he's raised a ton of cash, it's Alabama for Pete's sake, and all the decent Democrats are looking at the governor's race instead. Moving on...
Alaska -- Lisa Murkowski (R) running for 2nd full term
Outlook: Safe Republican
Murkowski was very vulnerable in 2004, but Bush coattails prevented Tony Knowles from making it. As we have seen, it takes extraordinary Democratic candidates to beat even convicted felons in Alaska, and Murkowski's approvals are near Palin levels. Not a target this time, and for what it's worth, smart money bets that everybody's favorite governor will say "thanks, but no thanks" to this one.
Arizona -- John McCain (R) running for 5th term
Outlook: Safe Republican for now
President-elect Obama just had to go pick the most qualified person to head Homeland Security. Anyway, the top-tier Democratic candidates would rather retake the governor's mansion than take on the entrenched McCain.
Arkansas -- Blanche Lincoln (D) running for 3rd term
Outlook: Likely Democratic
Lincoln is pretty low-profile, but that's been a boon for her. She works quietly and doesn't ruffle feathers. She had a breezy but not overwhelming reelection in 2004, and looks set for the same situation in 2010.
California -- Barbara Boxer (D) running for 4th term
Outlook: Likely Democratic
I leave it "likely" because of the buzz about Gov. Schwarzenegger running, but really, does anyone see California ousting Barbara Boxer two years after voting 61-37 for Barack Obama? Boxer's approvals aren't astounding, but Schwarzenegger's are demonstrably worse in the wake of the state's budget crisis.
Colorado -- Ken Salazar (D) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Likely Democratic
Salazar has drawn the ire of some in this community, but has stayed decently popular at home. The Colorado GOP is reeling from three election cycles in a row that brought it from unquestionably dominant to badly outnumbered.
Connecticut -- Chris Dodd (D) presumably running for 6th term
Outlook: Likely Democratic
Don't you wish it was Lieberman who was up? Alas, Dodd's approvals were once legendary but his ties to the Countrywide debacle have brought them down to earth. He is still a strong favorite for reelection should he run; and more to the point, do the Republicans have anyone in Connecticut (very popular Gov. Jodi Rell aside) who could wage a credible race for the U.S. Senate?
Delaware special election (open) -- Ted Kaufman (D) retiring after partial term
Outlook: Likely Democratic
Kaufman was apparently chosen as a placeholder, something anyone who read his résumé could have told you. If Republican Rep. Mike Castle runs, we will likely pick up his House seat but the Senate race will be fierce. If he chooses to stick with his 18 years of seniority, the Democrats are prohibitive favorites to retain the seat. All the buzz surrounds Atty. Gen. Beau Biden (the VP-elect's son, now serving in Iraq), but the Democratic bench in Delaware is relatively deep.
Florida (open) -- Mel Martinez (R) retiring after 1 term
Outlook: Super-tossup
Senate races don't get more exciting than this. Martinez would have had an uphill fight for reelection, so in that respect I'd almost rather see him run, but the opening up of a Republican seat in this gargantuan, and nauseatingly expensive, battleground state ensures that both the DSCC and NRSC will spend the lion's share of their cash in Florida next cycle. The top Democratic possibility is State CFO Alex Sink, but she is by no means the only name -- Reps. Ron Klein, Allen Boyd, Robert Wexler, and State Sen. Dan Gelber are all reportedly considering the race. On the Republican side, names run the gamut from State Rep. Marco Rubio to (get ready to barf) former Gov. Jeb Bush. Even more so than in 2004, this is immediately the cycle's marquee Senate race.
Georgia -- Johnny Isakson (R) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Safe Republican
Isakson is the less controversial of Georgia's Senators, and the other one just got reelected in a breeze.
Hawaii -- Daniel Inouye (D) running for 9th term???
Outlook: Safe Democratic if Inouye runs
Like Robert Byrd's West Virginia seat in 2006, the status of this race hinges on the incumbent's willingness to stand for an umpteenth term. If Inouye runs, Hawaii's iconic senior Senator will win another easy landslide. If not, Republican Gov. Linda Lingle poses a serious threat in this, the bluest of blue states. Unlike others, though, I hesitate to call Lingle a favorite should the seat open up; native son Obama got 72% here and would likely aid the Democratic candidate, and our bench here is as deep as the ocean. But all this is a moot point should Inouye run again.
Idaho -- Mike Crapo (R) running for 3rd term
Outlook: Safe Republican
Unfortunate name and low profile aside, he's solid, and all Democratic attention will focus on protecting Rep. Walter Minnick.
Illinois -- whomever Blagojevich names (D) running for full term (or not)
Outlook: Likely Democratic
Illinois is bluer than ever, it has a home-stater in the White House, and Blagojevich is shrewd enough to pick someone electable. With the not-so-esteemed Gov. Blago likely to face a stiff primary challenge, it'll be a marquee year in the Land of Lincoln, but I'm thinking the Republicans will find his governor's mansion a more worthwhile target.
Indiana -- Evan Bayh (D) running for 3rd term
Outlook: Safe Democratic
Bayh was safe back when Indiana was a red state.
Iowa -- Chuck Grassley (R) presumably running for 6th term
Outlook: Safe Republican if Grassley runs
This is something of a mirror image to Hawaii, though Iowa doesn't have the added benefit of leaning Republican. If Grassley runs he should be safe, as he's never faced a tough race since 1980. But if he retires at age 77, it will be an earth-shaking event in Hawkeye politics and the Democrats will have a better-than-even shot at snatching this one.
Kansas (open) -- Sam Brownback (R) retiring after 2 terms
Outlook: Safe Republican unless Sebelius runs
For now, Democratic Gov. Kathleen Sebelius seems likely to end up in Obama's Cabinet, robbing us of another opportunity at a Senate pickup in a red state. The other credible Democrats in Kansas will be eying her open governor's mansion, so this one could be determined by the heated GOP primary between Reps. Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt. If Sebelius runs, it's a whole other ballgame.
Kentucky -- Jim Bunning (R) presumably running for 3rd term
Outlook: Tossup / Leans Republican
Bunning has had two very close shaves in a row, and he's not gotten any saner, but Kentucky Republicans have shown an ability to survive close Senate races, from Bunning's victories in 1998 and 2004 to Mitch McConnell's in 1984, 1990, and 2008. Rep. Ben Chandler (D) is always touted as a statewide candidate, but he passed up a gubernatorial race in 2007 and a Senate race in 2008, both of which he'd have been able to win. Does he even want to run statewide again? If so, Bunning has something to fear. There are other worthy possibilities, of course, as Kentucky has plenty of elected Democrats.
Louisiana -- David Vitter (R) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Leans Republican
The Louisiana GOP has been ascendant since 2004, now controlling the governor's mansion and within a hair of winning the State House of Reps. No longer is this state a haven for Clintonian southern Democrats, and nowhere is that more evident than this Senate race. Vitter's hooker scandal would doom him in a state any bluer, but in this landscape it just pushes his reelection into the "leans" pile. The question is, who do the Democrats have anymore who can win an expensive and competitive statewide race? Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu, brother of Sen. Mary Landrieu, is unlikely to run, as is Atty. Gen. Buddy Caldwell. It's been a quick demise for us in the Bayou State, and I wonder how relevant Vitter's issues will even be in another two years.
Maryland -- Barbara Mikulski (D) presumably running for 5th term
Outlook: Safe Democratic
Rumors swirl that Mikulski is retiring, but only half of these rumors ever come true. For now I'll assume she is running and is safe. If she retires, this is still one of the most loyal Democratic states in the Union.
Missouri -- Kit Bond (R) presumably running for 5th term
Outlook: Leans Republican
Bond may face a close race from Secy. of State Robin Carnahan, Atty. Gen. Chris Koster, or others, but for now he has no opponent, and he has defied premature political obituaries multiple times before. As in 2006, our chances in Missouri will come down to recruitment.
Nevada -- Harry Reid (D) running for 5th term
Outlook: Tossup
I don't know why some have been so slow to catch on to Reid's vulnerability. Yes, he won a landslide in 2004 against a no-name opponent, but he survived by the skin of his teeth in 1998 and his approvals have dipped badly during his tenure as Majority Leader. Early polls against outgoing Rep. Jon Porter and Rep. Dean Heller are underwhelming. With a paucity of vulnerable Democratic seats, the GOP has all the incentive in the world to target Reid for Daschling. This is easily the most concerning hold right now, a complement to the GOP's woes in Florida. If there is one positive sign for Reid, it is the clear blue trend in Nevada and the unpopularity of the state GOP under Gov. Gibbons.
New Hampshire -- Judd Gregg (R) running for 4th term
Outlook: Leans Republican
But calling Gregg safe would be almost equally facile. He too won a landslide in 2004 against an underfunded opponent, but his approvals are only so-so and New Hampshire Democrats are emboldened to run the table. Gov. John Lynch is reportedly not interested, but Rep. Paul Hodes, ex-Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, and political consultant Katrina Swett (wife of former Rep. Dick Swett), may be. Marchand and Swett were both running against Sununu until Jeanne Shaheen entered the race, so they have already shown an interest in this sort of thing. The question is whether Granite State Dems are afraid to take on Gregg based on past performance.
New York -- Chuck Schumer (D) running for 3rd term
Outlook: Safe Democratic
Please.
New York special election -- whomever Paterson names (D) running for full term (or not)
Outlook: Safe Democratic
This race brings up two questions: 1) Which ambitious oft-discussed Democrat will Gov. Paterson pick? 2) Will the GOP candidate get 40%?
North Carolina -- Richard Burr (R) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Tossup / Leans Republican
For some bizarre reason Charlie Cook is calling Burr safe. Is he kidding us? This is the illustrious Haunted Seat that switches parties every six years, and has done so ever since Sam Ervin's retirement in 1974. It went blue in 1974, red in 1980, blue in 1986, red again in 1992, blue again in 1998, red yet again in 2004. Burr's approvals are around where Dole's were in 2007, and the Democratic bench in North Carolina is suitably deep. If there is any southern state (and I mean "southern" outside of Virginia) where the state party has proven its vote-getting abilities in recent years, it's this one. There are plenty of options here.
North Dakota -- Byron Dorgan (D) running for 4th term
Outlook: Safe Democratic unless Hoeven runs
There is a consistent pattern to North Dakota Senate races: Kent Conrad and Byron Dorgan maintain sky-high approvals, and Republicans crow about the possible threat of Gov. John Hoeven (R) running to challenge either one. In 2004, Hoeven declined to take on Dorgan and Dorgan won a landslide. In 2006, Hoeven passed on challenging Conrad and Conrad won a landslide. In 2010, Hoeven has one last chance to jump in; if he doesn't, Dorgan will win a landslide.
Ohio -- George Voinovich (R) presumably running for 3rd term
Outlook: Tossup / Leans Republican
Anecdotal evidence is that Voinovich has gotten a lot less popular in his 2nd term. In 1998 and 2004, his name was legendary in Ohio GOP circles; now his approvals are apparently lukewarm and he is polling even with potential foes like Rep. Tim Ryan. Until I see real evidence that he is vulnerable, I'm keeping this in the Tossup/Leans category, but the luster has apparently worn off for the onetime Republican VP contender. My Ohio spies tell me he may not even run again, opening up another expensive seat in a mega-battleground. Imagine a cycle with tossup open GOP seats in Florida and Ohio!
Oklahoma -- Tom Coburn (R) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Safe Republican
Coburn was able to win by double digits running a loony campaign against a tough opponent in 2004. He's become an icon of the Norquist fetishists and Oklahoma is redder than ever.
Oregon -- Ron Wyden (D) running for 3rd full term
Outlook: Safe Democratic
The Republicans will be focused on the open governor's mansion, and even that race will be uphill for them.
Pennsylvania -- Arlen Specter (R) running for 6th term
Outlook: Leans Republican
Specter has stayed pretty popular and is probably the only Republican with real stature in Pennsylvania politics. Scuttlebutt has begun about another primary challenge from the right, possibly from former Rep. Pat Toomey again (who lost to Specter just 51-49 last round), and even more juicy gossip has surrounded a possible Democratic run by Chris Matthews. My hit is that either Specter will cruise against a sub-par opponent, or the rumors will all come true, he will lose the nomination, and this will be a helluva race. Dare I say -- Florida, Ohio, AND Pennsylvania?
South Carolina -- Jim DeMint (R) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Safe Republican
Darn you, Fritz Hollings, for getting old.
South Dakota -- John Thune (R) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Safe Republican
Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) won't run unless Thune retires, and why exactly would he do that?
Utah -- Bob Bennett (R) presumably running for 4th term
Outlook: Safe Republican
He keeps a low profile, and happens to represent Utah.
Vermont -- Pat Leahy (D) presumably running for 7th term
Outlook: Safe Democratic
Try this analogy: Leahy is to Vermont as Kennedy is to Massachusetts.
Washington -- Patty Murray (D) running for 4th term
Outlook: Safe Democratic
Murray never wins by overwhelming margins, but who exactly would run against her? I think she's finally crossed that safety threshold.
Wisconsin -- Russ Feingold (D) running for 4th term
Outlook: Likely Democratic
Feingold isn't quite at the safety threshold, as Wisconsin Republicans absolutely hate his guts, but Democrats and Indies seem to dig him. As in a lot of states, Republicans will be tempted to focus on the governor's mansion instead.
At this early date, the Democrats are only truly threatened in Nevada. Retirements could render more seats vulnerable, but those can't be predicted this far out. Republicans, meanwhile, have a lot to fear in Florida, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, and possibly Louisiana, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and elsewhere. In any case, they have as much to lose from retirements (Grassley, Voinovich, et al.) as we do.
Early read: As I said before, it's a midterm election, so Democrats shouldn't expect big gains, but the picture in the Senate looks a lot more promising than in the House and governor's mansions. We seem poised to hit 60 seats until and unless individual races begin to break the GOP's way. For those of us with an interest in generational theory, there are real parallels between America's current predicament and the dark days of the early 1930s; and for the record, FDR's Democrats gained 9 Senate seats and 9 House seats in 1934, allowing them to easily top the two-thirds mark in the Senate (the number needed for cloture before 1975). We have two years to see how ably Obama and congressional Democrats handle the crisis, but based on my 22 months spent with OFA, I'd say if anyone can make lemonade of this, Barack Obama can.
And an apology: For my conformity in talking about the Senate races. Everyone and their dog is doing it. I promise it'll be Governors next time, and then the House.