Well, the afterglow I felt when Florida turned blue for Obama sure didn't last long. Sen. Mel Martinez's surprise announcement that he won't seek re-election in 2010 has suddenly turned the state's political world upside down, and as the dust settles the name "Jeb Bush" has reared its ugly head and returned to the headlines. Just a few weeks ago I was jumping for joy at the end of the Bush legacy in DC, but now I realize that our country just can't seem to quit the Bushes. So I'd like to apologize in advance if my state sends another Bush back to Washington in two years. Even if Bush loses, I apologize in advance for forcing us all to hear about a Bush candidacy in the news nonstop for the next two years.
When I moved to Florida a little over two years ago, I was a little disheartened that I was moving to yet another purple state (why can't we ever move to a true blue state?) But one thing I told myself in order to lift my spirits was that at least Jeb Bush was leaving office, so I wouldn't have to live in a state where a Bush is governor. But Jeb Bush is back.
As I read the tea leaves here in Florida, it seems increasingly clear to me that Jeb Bush is going to run for Martinez's Senate seat in 2010. As the St. Petersburg Times reports today:
"I am considering it," the two-term governor said of the Senate seat Mel Martinez will leave in 2010.
And with those four words, Bush has upended Florida's political landscape and generated a flood of national media attention on a race barely on the radar just two days ago.
Trust me folks. Those four words by Jeb Bush were carefully crafted and were many months in the making. A Bush doesn't say he's "considering" a Senate run unless it's a done deal. And the Times notes that if Bush throws his hat in the ring, he'll clear the Republican field, because "no credible Republican would take him on."
The only other Republican who could clear the field would be Gov. Charlie Crist, and he's already signaled that he's ceding the Senate nomination to Bush. Here's part of a Crist interview published yesterday in the Tampa Tribune:
Q: Are you interested in running in 2010 for the U.S. Senate now that Mel Martinez has announced he will not run for re-election?
A: I love being the governor of Florida. It's a great privilege, and to be honest with you, the only things I'm thinking about in the next few weeks are Carole (Rome, his fiancée) and the impending wedding – and Florida.
(snicker, snicker)
Q: What do you think about former Gov. Jeb Bush running for Senate?
A. Well, we'll see what develops. I imagine a lot of people will have interest, and time will tell. These things usually take a little while to sort out. He's a great Floridian. ... I would like to see him do what he wants to do.
Make no mistake about it. Jeb Bush would be a formidable candidate. For some reason he still seems to be pretty well-liked here in Florida. Conservatives love him, and he's also spoken out forcefully about the need for the Republican party to be more diverse and inclusive, a message bolstered by his own marriage to a Mexican American. Yes, the Bush name has lost some luster in the last eight years, but I think that in Florida, anyway, Jeb could overcome that liability.
Right now the front-running Democratic candidate for the Florida Senate seat is the state's Chief Financial Officer, Alex Sink. She handily won the CFO race in 2006, and was the only Democrat to win statewide office that year. The St. Pete Times summarizes some of her strengths:
Sink beat Republican Tom Lee in the 2006 CFO race. She has 28 years of banking experience, is from the vital I-4 corridor, and is well-liked in the business community. A Sink candidacy would narrow the field of Democratic candidates in a hurry.
My favorite trivia about Sink is that she is the great-granddaughter of famous Siamese twins Chang and Eng Bunker. I also find it cool that after graduating from college with a math degree, she taught math in West Africa for three years. I should also point out that Sink is married to politician Bill McBride, who lost to Jeb Bush in Florida's 2002 gubernatorial race. Payback anyone?
It seems to me that Sink is probably the best candidate to take on Jeb Bush and have a chance of winning. She has positive statewide recognition in Florida, which is so crucial in a big state like this one; she's admired by folks across the political spectrum; and she could bring an effective message of change from more Bushes in Washington. My big fear is that she might get scared off by Jeb Bush, and I don't really see any other Democrat out there right now who could take on Jeb.
Of course, there is still a possibility that Jeb Bush will decide against a Senate race. W. did some serious, serious damage to the Bush brand, so it may be just a bit too soon for the Republicans to be pushing another Bush as the party's next standard-bearer in DC. The current economic recession and financial industry meltdown might not be the best time to put a spotlight on Jeb Bush's ties to Lehman Brothers. And Jeb has had only two years to rake in the big bucks in his consulting firm, so he may want more time to fill up his coffers before settling for a senator's paltry salary.
Others speculate that he'll bow out after methodically looking at the pros and cons. He has told people this week he is weighing family and business considerations, including his consulting business, Jeb Bush & Associates, which his youngest son, "Jebbie," has joined.
While I'm at it, I might as well apologize now for Florida forcing "Jebbie" Bush onto the country in 15 or 20 years. We just can't seem to quit the Bushes down here (maybe it's something in the water), so it's up to the rest of you folks to tell us to take the Bushes and do you-know-what with them.