Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 12/8-10. Likely voters. MoE 4% for general election matchups, 5% for primary matchups (No trend lines)
Republican Primary
Specter (R) 43
Toomey (R) 28
Undecided 29
Toomey is itching to go after Specter again after falling just short in 2004, and Specter is already well under the magical 50 percent mark.
A Club for Growth poll in January 2004 gave Specter a 51-28 advantage, down to 47-39 days before the election. A mid-February 2004 poll by Frankly & Marshall College for the Philadelphia Daily News and CN8 gave Specter a 55-17 lead, which was whittled down to 46-40 a week before the election. And back in late March 2004, the first Quinnipiac University poll of the race, about four weeks before the April 27 primary, gave Specter a healthy 52-37 advantage, which was whittled down to 48-42 three days before the election.
So all of these polls gave Specter the early 50+ percent numbers, and saw it narrow to a single-digit race, but none expected such a close 50.9-49.1 results. That's the power of a motivated base, and I suspect they'll be even more motivated in 2010 with all this "get back to our roots" crap, coupled with the inevitable Specter votes for at least part of Obama's agenda.
Indeed, it's quite the conundrum -- Pennsylvania is trending heavily Democratic. This supposed "battleground", in which McCain and Palin camped out in the last few weeks of the race, went to Obama by a comfortable 11 points. If Specter votes with his state and supports Obama on key legislation, it'll be a boon for Toomey. If Specter plays to his base by obstructing the Obama agenda, then he becomes mulch in the general election. This is why Specter is suddenly grandstanding on Obama's pick for Attorney General, Eric Holder. He clearly hopes to earn some kudos from his Right flank by talking tough and threatening obstruction.
On the Democratic side, it's way too early to read into these numbers. The Democrats either sport low name IDs, or are Matthews (who despite being well known, isn't lighting any fires).
Democratic Primary
Matthews (D) 24
Murphy (D) 19
Schwartz (D) 15
Undecided 42
Matthews (D) 28
Murphy (D) 21
Undecided 51
Matthews (D) 30
Schwartz (D) 18
Undecided 52
Murphy (D) 23
Schwartz (D) 20
Undecided 57
In the general election matchups, Toomey would go nowhere fast, while Specter is once again hovering under the 50 percent mark. But of the Democrats, only Matthews (with his high name ID) is currently within single digits of Specter. This will obviously change as the eventual Democratic nominee becomes better known, and as Specter is forced to play footsie with conservatives to shore up his Right flank.
General Election Matchups
Specter (R) 45
Matthews (D) 44
Specter (R) 48
Murphy (D) 36
Specter (R) 49
Schwartz (D) 35
Toomey (R) 35
Matthews (D) 46
Toomey (R) 36
Murphy (D) 44
Toomey (R) 36
Schwartz (D) 42
Full cross-tabs below the fold.
PENNSYLVANIA RESULTS – DECEMBER 2008
The Research 2000 Pennsylvania Poll was conducted from December 8 through December 10, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
NOTE: There was an over sample conducted among Democratic and Republican primary voters totaling 400. The margin of error is 5% for both.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 289 (48%)
Women 311 (52%)
Democrats 294 (49%)
Republicans 234 (39%)
Independents 72 (12%)
White 486 (81%)
Black 83 (14%)
Other 31 (5%)
18-29 102 (17%)
30-44 168 (28%)
45-59 204 (34%)
60+ 126 (21%)
Philadelphia City 78 (13%)
Philadelphia Suburbs 126 (21%)
Pittsburgh 144 (24%)
Rest of State 252 (42%)
Democratic Primary Voters
Men 176 (44%)
Women 224 (56%)
White 324 (81%)
Black 56 (14%)
Other 20 (5%)
Republican Primary Voters
Men 216 (54%)
Women 184 (46%)
QUESTION: If the 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate were held today which of the following would you vote for? (ROTATED):
ALL MEN WOMEN WHITE BLACK OTHER
MATTHEWS 24% 21% 27% 26% 17% 11%
MURPHY 19% 23% 16% 21% 11% 12%
SCHWARTZ 15% 10% 19% 17% 8% 7%
UNDECIDED 42% 46% 38% 36% 64% 70%
QUESTION: If the 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Chris Matthews and Patrick Murphy? (ROTATED):
ALL MEN WOMEN WHITE BLACK OTHER
MATTHEWS 28% 24% 31% 30% 21% 16%
MURPHY 21% 25% 18% 23% 12% 14%
UNDECIDED 51% 51% 51% 47% 67% 70%
QUESTION: If the 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Chris Matthews and Allyson Schwartz?
ALL MEN WOMEN WHITE BLACK OTHER
MATTHEWS 30% 26% 33% 32% 24% 17%
SCHWARTZ 18% 11% 24% 20% 11% 12%
UNDECIDED 52% 63% 43% 48% 65% 71%
QUESTION: If the 2010 Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Patrick Murphy and Allyson Schwartz?
ALL MEN WOMEN WHITE BLACK OTHER
MURPHY 23% 27% 20% 25% 12% 14%
SCHWARTZ 20% 12% 26% 22% 12% 11%
UNDECIDED 57% 61% 54% 53% 76% 75%
QUESTION: If the 2010 Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Arlen Specter and Pat Toomey?
ALL MEN WOMEN
SPECTER 43% 40% 47%
TOOMEY 28% 32% 23%
UNDECIDED 29% 28% 30%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Chris Matthews the Democrat and Arlen Specter
the Republican?
SPECTER MATTHEWS UNDECIDED
ALL 45% 44% 11%
MEN 49% 42% 9%
WOMEN 41% 46% 13%
DEMOCRATS 16% 76% 8%
REPUBLICANS 81% 5% 14%
INDEPENDENTS 48% 41% 11%
WHITE 54% 39% 7%
BLACK 7% 68% 25%
OTHER 11% 63% 26%
18-29 36% 55% 9%
30-44 47% 40% 13%
45-59 43% 47% 10%
60+ 52% 37% 11%
PHILLY CITY 23% 64% 13%
PHILLY SUBURBS 44% 45% 11%
PITTSBURGH 46% 42% 12%
REST OF STATE 52% 39% 9%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Patrick Murphy the Democrat and Arlen Specter
the Republican?
SPECTER MURPHY UNDECIDED
ALL 48% 36% 16%
MEN 52% 35% 13%
WOMEN 44% 37% 19%
DEMOCRATS 18% 61% 21%
REPUBLICANS 85% 5% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 51% 35% 14%
WHITE 58% 30% 12%
BLACK 6% 62% 32%
OTHER 12% 60% 28%
18-29 38% 47% 15%
30-44 51% 31% 18%
45-59 47% 39% 14%
60+ 56% 30% 14%
PHILLY CITY 24% 59% 17%
PHILLY SUBURBS 48% 37% 15%
PITTSBURGH 50% 34% 16%
REST OF STATE 55% 30% 15%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Allyson Schwartz the Democrat and Arlen Specter
the Republican?
SPECTER SCHWARTZ UNDECIDED
ALL 49% 35% 16%
MEN 53% 34% 13%
WOMEN 45% 36% 19%
DEMOCRATS 18% 60% 22%
REPUBLICANS 87% 5% 8%
INDEPENDENTS 53% 33% 14%
WHITE 59% 29% 12%
BLACK 6% 61% 33%
OTHER 11% 60% 29%
18-29 38% 46% 16%
30-44 52% 30% 18%
45-59 48% 38% 14%
60+ 57% 29% 14%
PHILLY CITY 24% 57% 19%
PHILLY SUBURBS 49% 35% 16%
PITTSBURGH 51% 33% 16%
REST OF STATE 56% 30% 14%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Chris Matthews the Democrat and Pat Toomey
the Republican?
MATTHEWS TOOMEY UNDECIDED
ALL 46% 35% 19%
MEN 43% 39% 18%
WOMEN 49% 31% 20%
DEMOCRATS 79% 5% 16%
REPUBLICANS 6% 73% 21%
INDEPENDENTS 43% 36% 21%
WHITE 40% 42% 18%
BLACK 71% 4% 25%
OTHER 69% 8% 23%
18-29 56% 23% 21%
30-44 41% 38% 21%
45-59 50% 33% 17%
60+ 38% 45% 17%
PHILLY CITY 66% 11% 23%
PHILLY SUBURBS 49% 31% 20%
PITTSBURGH 44% 31% 25%
REST OF STATE 40% 47% 13%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Patrick Murphy the Democrat and Pat Toomey
the Republican?
MURPHY TOOMEY UNDECIDED
ALL 44% 36% 20%
MEN 41% 40% 19%
WOMEN 47% 32% 21%
DEMOCRATS 76% 5% 19%
REPUBLICANS 5% 75% 20%
INDEPENDENTS 41% 37% 22%
WHITE 38% 43% 19%
BLACK 70% 4% 26%
OTHER 67% 8% 25%
18-29 55% 22% 23%
30-44 39% 39% 22%
45-59 48% 34% 18%
60+ 36% 47% 17%
PHILLY CITY 65% 11% 24%
PHILLY SUBURBS 46% 32% 22%
PITTSBURGH 42% 33% 25%
REST OF STATE 38% 48% 14%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Allyson Schwartz the Democrat and Pat Toomey
the Republican?
SCHWARTZ TOOMEY UNDECIDED
ALL 42% 36% 22%
MEN 39% 40% 21%
WOMEN 45% 32% 23%
DEMOCRATS 72% 5% 23%
REPUBLICANS 5% 75% 20%
INDEPENDENTS 39% 37% 24%
WHITE 36% 43% 21%
BLACK 69% 4% 27%
OTHER 66% 7% 27%
18-29 54% 21% 25%
30-44 37% 39% 24%
45-59 46% 34% 20%
60+ 35% 48% 17%
PHILLY CITY 63% 10% 27%
PHILLY SUBURBS 45% 32% 23%
PITTSBURGH 40% 33% 27%
REST OF STATE 36% 48% 16%