As promised in my last diary (jumping on the Senate '10 bandwagon), I'll address the 38 gubernatorial races occurring between now and 2010. Next year, New Jersey and Virginia do their thing, while 2010 features the other 36 states' elections for Governor.
Midterm gubernatorial elections, 36 strong and perennially influenced by the revolving door effects of term limits, are always more volatile and harder to handicap early on than congressional contests. Where most Senate and House races feature entrenched incumbents or overwhelming partisan advantages depending on the state, governor's mansions flip more easily between the parties and do so rather fluidly depending on the peculiar state-level issues at play. Hence states like Wyoming, Oklahoma, and Kansas have Democratic governors while Vermont, Connecticut, and Rhode Island remain GOP-run.
Read my race-by-race early look below the fold...
2009
New Jersey -- Jon Corzine (D) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Leans Democratic
Corzine's approval ratings are pretty weak. And what else is new for a sitting Governor in New Jersey? As always, Republicans hope to make inroads here, but as always, the Democrats start with an obvious edge. GOPers talk up U.S. Attorney Chris Christie as a challenger, and my hit is he will do pretty darned well for a Republican in the Garden State. But unless Obama royally screws up his first year (something I doubt), I'm still having trouble picturing a GOP Governor in this state, especially considering Corzine's automatic fundraising edge. Of course, the election is 11 months away, and in New Jersey, that's plenty of time for someone on either side to get in trouble.
Virginia -- Tim Kaine (D) term-limited
Outlook: Tossup
Sometimes you wish Virginia didn't limit its governors to single terms -- Warner would have won a landslide in 2005, and Kaine would win pretty easily now. But it's that time again in the Old Dominion, and the race is shaping up to be another barn-burner. The Republican nominee is Atty. Gen. Bob McDonnell; the Democratic primary is between State Del. Brian Moran, State Sen. Creigh Deeds, and (he needs no job title) Terry McAuliffe. Early polling has the polling tied between McDonnell and any of the three Democrats. With Kaine's approvals fairly solid and Virginia Democrats on the upswing, we have reason to hope at this early juncture, but should the tide turn at all for the GOP here, it could be very tough.
2010
Alabama (open) -- Bob Riley (R) term-limited
Outlook: Leans Republican
I have to put this as "leans Republican" since the state is so conservative, but the funny thing is that, for now, there is no obvious GOP frontrunner, other than announced candidate Tim James, a real estate developer. Among the top-tier Democratic possibilities? Rep. Artur Davis and Lt. Gov. Jim Folsom, both of whom would be competitive if they ran. Gubernatorial elections in Alabama can be less predictable than you might think; Democrat Don Siegelman won in 1998 and fell just short in 2002. This may be one to watch.
Alaska -- Sarah Palin (R) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Safe Republican
Golly gosh.
Arizona -- Jan Brewer (R) presumably running for full term
Outlook: Tossup for now
It would be a lot easier if Gov. Napolitano (D) had stayed through the 2010 election, but due to her Cabinet appointment Brewer will get a head start. Of course, with Atty. Gen. Terry Goddard the likely Democratic nominee, Brewer will need to rack up some hefty approval ratings to avoid a close race.
Arkansas -- Mike Beebe (D) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Safe Democratic
Beebe's approvals are high and the Democrats remain pretty dominant on the state and local level here.
California (open) -- Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) term-limited
Outlook: Leans Democratic pickup
Where to begin? The only obvious Republican candidate is State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, while the Democratic primary is likely to become a free-for-all. Among the possible candidates: Secy. of State Debra Bowen, Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, Atty. Gen. Jerry Brown (a former Governor himself), Rep. Hilda Solis, Rep. Loretta Sanchez, and a partridge in an avocado tree. With the state bluer than ever and Schwarzenegger's approvals taking a hit from the budget crisis, most people are laying bets as to which Democrat triumphs in the primary with an unimpressive plurality.
Colorado -- Bill Ritter (D) presumably running for 2nd term
Outlook: Leans Democratic
I don't know how Ritter's approvals are, but Charlie Cook rates him a slight favorite, and the Colorado GOP is at its lowest ebb since...um...when was the last time?
Connecticut -- Jodi Rell (R) presumably running for 2nd full term
Outlook: Safe Republican
As long as Rell runs, she is a solid bet, and most of the talented Democrats in the state are waiting to take on Joe Lieberman in 2012.
Florida -- Charlie Crist (R) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Safe Republican
I know I'm diverging a bit from conventional wisdom which says Florida races are always close, but Crist's approvals are sky-high, even among Independents and Democrats, and any Democrat worth his/her salt is looking at Mel Martinez's Senate seat and a possibly uphill climb against Jeb Bush for that race. Crist is safe.
Georgia (open) -- Sonny Perdue (R) term-limited
Outlook: Leans Republican
The GOP has been on a big upswing in this state since 2002, so any Republican gets the early edge. Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine are both likely candidates, and other possibilities include Secy. of State Karen Handel and Reps. Jack Kingston and Lynn Westmoreland (no...really?). Former Adjutant General David Poythress is the only announced Democratic candidate, but Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond may run too. There are even rumors of a comeback bid by former Gov. Roy Barnes (D), who would only be eligible to serve one term.
Hawaii (open) -- Linda Lingle (R) term-limited
Outlook: Leans Democratic pickup
Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona is supposedly popular and will try to hold this one for Team Red, but this is probably the most Democratic state in the Union now. Any competent Dem challenger should win, whether it's Rep. Mazie Hirono (who ran in 2002), former Rep. Ed Case, State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, or Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann.
Idaho -- Butch Otter (R) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Safe Republican
ID-01 will be the most exciting race in the state.
Illinois -- Rod Blagojevich (D) in deep doo-doo for 3rd term
Outlook: Leans Democratic
Um, yeah.
Anyway, Blago won't win the primary. No way. He can run I guess...a jailhouse campaign for reelection? But more likely he'll be impeached and the frontrunner candidate will be (now-) Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn. If Quinn chooses not to run for a full term, Atty. Gen. Lisa Madigan and State Comptroller Dan Hynes are likely candidates. This one will be juicy, even if the Democrats are still pretty favored.
Iowa -- Chet Culver (D) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Likely Democratic
I'm told Culver's approvals are decent, and that should be enough in this lean-Democratic, drama-averse Midwestern state.
Kansas (open) -- Kathleen Sebelius (D) term-limited
Outlook: Leans Republican pickup
But the Democrats still have a good fighting chance at this one, with Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson the likely nominee. The Republicans may go for Sen. Sam Brownback, which would set up a classic Kansas dynamic in the general election: hard-right religious conservative on the GOP side, pragmatic centrist on the Democratic side. Unlike many hard-liners in the Kansas GOP, however, Brownback is very popular and would likely beat Parkinson handily.
Maine (open) -- John Baldacci (D) term-limited
Outlook: Likely Democratic
One of the few cases in which term limits make the incumbent party breathe a sigh of relief. Baldacci is not popular, but Maine is a progressive state and I can't see any Republican not named Snowe or Collins winning statewide in today's climate. Outgoing Rep. Tom Allen, who was creamed against Collins in the 2008 Senate race, may run, and this time he would stand a very decent shot.
Maryland -- Martin O'Malley (D) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Likely Democratic
O'Malley's approval ratings earlier this year were horrendous, suggesting possible defeat in 2010, but for whatever reason (intellectual laziness?) Charlie Cook calls him safe. I'm splitting the difference and saying that the Republicans don't have anyone competent to mount a real challenge, and O'Malley has nearly two years to correct things.
Massachusetts -- Deval Patrick (D) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Likely / Safe Democratic
At last glance Patrick's approvals were not good, but I honestly can't see Massachusetts electing another GOP governor with Mitt Romney still so visible and former Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (whom Patrick crushed in 2006) the most likely candidate.
Michigan (open) -- Jennifer Granholm (D) term-limited
Outlook: Leans Democratic
Granholm's approvals took a real hit from Michigan's fabled economic woes and domestic crises catalyzed by the disastrous Engler administration (Engler was governor from 1990 until 2002). But are Michiganders likely to entrust their state to the GOP given their demonstrated deep resentment of President Bush and Republicans in Congress? Lt. Gov. John Cherry is the Dem frontrunner, though many other possibilities exist including State House Speaker Andy Dillon and Flint Mayor Don Williamson (okay, Williamson seems unlikely to be a credible candidate). Republican candidates may include Rep. Pete Hoekstra, Atty. Gen. Mike Cox, and Secy. of State Terri Lynn Land.
Minnesota -- Tim Pawlenty (R) presumably running for 3rd term
Outlook: Tossup
Even if Pawlenty seeks a third term, he is even odds against a strong DFL candidate. For now, the announced candidates are former Sen. Mark Dayton, State Sen. Tom Bakk, and Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner. Pawlenty won a squeaker reelection in 2006, and clearly has presidential ambitions, so this could be a very important race as Democrats seek a monopoly on Minnesota government.
Nebraska -- Dave Heineman (R) running for 2nd full term
Outlook: Safe Republican
Nothing to see here.
Nevada -- Jim Gibbons (R) presumably running for 2nd term
Outlook: Tossup
Next to Blagojevich, Gibbons is the most unlikely governor to win reelection in 2010. He may lose the GOP primary to Rep. Dean Heller, former Rep. Jon Porter, or someone else. If he makes it to the general, Democrats are bullish they can beat him with any number of qualified candidates from the state legislature. Between this, Harry Reid's tossup Senate seat, and the beginning of term limits in the state legislature, Nevada looks to be an exciting place in 2010 politics.
New Hampshire -- John Lynch (D) presumably running for 4th term
Outlook: Safe Democratic
As long as Lynch runs (and it doesn't look like he'll retire or take on Sen. Judd Gregg), he wins a landslide.
New Mexico -- Diane Denish (D) presumably running for full term
Outlook: Likely Democratic
Just as Jan Brewer will take over in Arizona due to Obama's Cabinet shuffling, Denish will get a head start once Bill Richardson is confirmed for Secy. of Commerce. Her incumbency makes her the odds-on favorite against a possible primary challenge from Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez, and with this state trending Democratic and the GOP bench weaker than ever in recent memory, I have to see this mansion tilting blue. Of course, former Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce will be looking for something to do...
New York -- David Paterson (D) presumably running for full term
Outlook: Likely Democratic
Paterson looks to be far more popular -- maybe "less controversial" is the appropriate term -- than Spitzer was in his early (pre-scandal) days, and most of the GOP's big names (Rep. Pete King among them) are eying Hillary Clinton's old Senate seat or statewide office. Polls show Paterson beating possible GOP competitors like Rep. Tom Reynolds or (gag) Rudy Giuliani.
Ohio -- Ted Strickland (D) running for 2nd term
Outlook: Likely Democratic
Kossack Ohiobama is convinced that Strickland is dead meat to former Rep. Rob Portman, while others assure me Strickland is safe. Whom to believe? Well, as of a few months ago, Strickland's approvals were still quite solid. It's possible they've dipped on disastrous economic news, but how can we know without some actual data? For now, I have to think the GOP is more concerned with George Voinovich's Senate seat.
Oklahoma (open) -- Brad Henry (D) term-limited
Outlook: Tossup
I know Oklahoma should be in the bag for the GOP, but Henry has been really popular and the Democrats have some heavyweights in Atty. Gen. Drew Edmondson (the current frontrunner) and Lt. Gov. Jari Askins (who may or may not run). Actually, Democrats control most of the statewide offices here. But whichever Republican runs (Oklahoma City Mayor Mickey Cornett? Rep. Mary Fallin?) should have 50% odds at worst.
Oregon -- Ted Kulongoski (D) term-limited
Outlook: Likely Democratic
Kulongoski's approvals have been tepid, as was his reelection in 2006, but Oregon just doesn't elect GOP Governors and, frankly, which Republican could actually mount a credible run for statewide office? Ousted Sen. Gordon Smith?
Kulongoski is term-limited and the Democratic bench is deep. I think the Democrats are strongly favored to retain this as an open seat.
Pennsylvania (open) -- Ed Rendell (D) term-limited
Outlook: Leans Democratic
For redistricting purposes alone, this will be considered the second biggest enchilada among the open governor's mansions, surpassed only by California. Republicans considering include Atty. Gen. Tom Corbett and (don't laugh) former Sen. Rick Santorum. The Democratic bench is heavy on machine names not from Philadelphia, so the field should be crowded on primary day and there may be an opening for a Philly candidate like Rep. Allyson Schwartz. I give the Dems a slight early edge due to their demonstrated superior field organization in Pennsylvania.
Rhode Island (open) -- Don Carcieri (R) term-limited
Outlook: Leans Democratic pickup
The absurdity of a Republican Governor in Rhode Island will soon come to a close as I can't think of anyone at the moment (other than Carcieri) who could win statewide office for the GOP. Still, New Englanders are notorious ticket-splitters (witness Judd Gregg, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, Jodi Rell, Jim Douglas, and the several recent Republicans who ruled Massachusetts).
South Carolina (open) -- Mark Sanford (R) term-limited
Outlook: Likely Republican
Sanford has remained popular and the Democrats only have one statewide official left, whom they are hardly eager to sacrifice in an unlikely gubernatorial race. Watch for Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and/or Atty. Gen. Henry McMaster here.
South Dakota (open) -- Mike Rounds (R) term-limited
Outlook: Likely Republican
Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) has no incentive to jump into this, though she would have a good chance if she did. For now the only announced candidates are both Republicans: Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard and Brookings Mayor Scott Munsterman.
Tennessee (open) -- Phil Bredesen (D) term-limited
Outlook: Tossup / Leans Republican pickup
This, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming will obviously be the toughest defense in 2010 governor's races, even though the sitting Democratic governors are, in all four cases, very popular. Here, the announced candidates so far are Rep. Lincoln Davis (whose House seat will be incredibly tough to hold now) and former State House Majority Leader Kim McMillan. The Republicans have no credible candidate yet, but that will definitely change. Holding this governor's mansion will be vital for redistricting, since the GOP now controls the state legislature.
Texas -- Rick Perry (R) running for 3rd full term
Outlook: Likely Republican
Perry's real worry is the Republican primary, where he looks set to fall if Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison takes the plunge as expected (of course, she was "expected" to run in 2002 and 2006 as well). In the general, Hutchison would be nigh impossible to beat, even with a candidate as strong as Houston Mayor Bill White.
Vermont -- Jim Douglas (R) presumably running for 5th term
Outlook: Likely Republican
How does he do it?
Wisconsin -- Jim Doyle (D) presumably running for 3rd term
Outlook: Leans Democratic
He might run again, he might not. Doyle faced a tough race in 2006 and may not want another one in 2010, when Rep. Paul Ryan, a so-called "rising star" since the late '90s, would probably wage a well-funded and aggressive race. Republicans desperately want this mansion back to prevent a Democratic gerrymander in the next round of redistricting, and are willing to pump big bucks in despite Wisconsin's Democratic trends.
Wyoming (open) -- Dave Freudenthal (D) term-limited
Outlook: Likely Republican pickup
The Democratic bench in Wyoming is woefully shallow. I don't know who could possibly step in and win this, even though Freudenthal retains sky-high approval ratings. May I just add how sucky it is that Wyoming, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Tennessee have term limits while Vermont, Minnesota, and Connecticut do not? For entertainment value, we can enjoy the likely crowded GOP primary field, but that's where the fun ends.
Early read: With nearly two years to go, I'd say we're poised to hold steady or lose a couple governor's mansions depending on the overall political winds. Then again, gubernatorial races don't always follow national trends (as witnessed by Democratic gains in 2002), so it would be silly to read too much into races that are essentially decided on local matters. In a neutral political climate, the Republicans should pick up Kansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Wyoming, with Oklahoma and Tennessee the least sure. Democrats should pick up California, Hawaii, and Rhode Island with little trouble, Hawaii being the least sure given Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona's supposed popularity. As for incumbent races, the Democrats may be favored in Nevada should Gibbons survive the primary, and there is little doubt they will target Brewer in Arizona and Pawlenty in Minnesota. Since no one expects Blagojevich to be an incumbent by 2010, I don't see a great shot for the GOP in Illinois. Republicans will, however, target high-stakes open seats in Michigan and Pennsylvania, unfavorable trends aside.
Because of term limits, the Governors picture is not as pretty as the Senate for 2010. But a lot will depend on Obama's effectiveness during his first two years. We could see another 1934, where the Democrats defy history to tighten their grip on political power, or another 1994, where Republicans come storming back (okay, really, something of a 1994 magnitude I highly doubt). This could be a moderately incumbent party-friendly year like 1962 or 2002, or a moderately opposition-friendly year like 1954 or 1978. Or this could be a thoroughly ho-hum snoozefest of a midterm election like 1970, 1990, or 1998. Until Obama and the Democrats start on their agenda late next January, we just don't know.