After Napolitano's nomination for the Cabinet seem difficult can do close race in Arizona, but yesterday, in our poll, we can see like Arizona was selected like the most vulnerable between the most hard seats for democratics in 2010 (ID, UT, AL, GA, SC, SD and AK).
Today we can talk about this seat. The question in Arizona is if any candidate can run decent race against incumbent John McCain. They are too elections for Governor in AZ in 2010.
These can be candidates for Senate (and for Governor) in Arizona:
- Gabrielle Giffords: AZ 1970 USHRep 07- .
- Ed Pastor: AZ 1943 USHRep 91- .
- Raúl Grijalva: AZ 1948 USHRep 03- .
- Ann Kirkpatrick: AZ 1950 USHRep 09- .
- Sam Coppersmith: PA AZ 1955 USHRep 93-95. Lost for Senate 94.
- Karan English: CA AZ 1949 USHRep 93-95. Lost for House 94.
- Richard Mahoney: AZ 1952 Secretary of State of AZ 91-95. Lost for Senate 94. Lost for Governor 02.
- Terry Goddard: AZ 1947 Attorney General of AZ 02- . Mayor of Phoenix 83-90. Lost for Governor 90.
- Phil Gordon: IL AZ 1951 Mayor of Phoenix 2004- .
I think, we can accept near 100% probability of McCain became republican candidate.
Update:
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 60 votes = 07,333 => Likely Democratic
KS-Sen: open R vs K Sebelius (D-1948) ? after 43 votes = 06,240 => Leans Democratic
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 33 votes = 05,606 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 35 votes = 05,571 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 38 votes = 05,307 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 39 votes = 05,000 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 55 votes = 03,727 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican
*: The diary for Florida is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For find any strong candidate more for senate
And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:
AK-Sen: L Murkovski (R-1957) vs T Knowles (D-1943) ?
SD-Sen: J Thune (R-1961) vs ?
ID-Sen: M Crapo (R-1951) vs ?
SC-Sen: J DeMint (R-1951) vs J Hodges (D-1956) ?
AL-Sen: R Shelby (R-1934) vs J Folsom (D-1949) ?
GA-Sen: J Isakson (R-1944) vs ?
UT-Sen: R Bennett (R-1933) vs ?
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Republican Safe or Likely Seats?
All the polls are open.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.