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In Louisiana seems Mitch Landrieu can be the candidate with highest support for run between the possible candidates. Can be candidate for win? Some people tell yes, he can, others tell not.

For remember the possible candidates:

  1. John Berlinger Breaux: LA 1944 US Senator from LA 87-05.
  1. Kathleen Babineaux Blanco: LA 1942 Governor of LA 04-08. Lieutenant Governor of LA 96-04.
  1. Charles Joseph Melancon: LA 1947 USHRep 05- .
  1. Thomas Gerald Huckaby: LA 1941 USHRep 77-93. Lost for House 92. Living in Virginia?
  1. Donald J Cazayoux: LA 1964 USHRep 08-09. Lost for House 08.
  1. Mitchell Joseph Landrieu: LA 1960 Lieutenant Governor of LA 04- . Lost for Mayor of New Orleans 94 and 06.
  1. James "Buddy" Caldwell: LA 1946 Attorney General of LA 08- .
  1. Walter Joseph Boasso: LA 1960 Lost for Governor 07.
  1. Foster L Campbell: LA 1947 Lost for Governor 07. Lost for House 80, 88 and 90.

I think will be very difficult Mitch Landrieu can defeat republican incumbent. Of course i will be with the first democratic in Louisiana system of primaries for this race.

In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---

PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 60 votes = 07,333 => Likely Democratic
KS-Sen: open R vs K Sebelius (D-1948) ? after 43 votes = 06,240 => Leans Democratic
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 33 votes = 05,606 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 35 votes = 05,571 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 38 votes = 05,307 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 39 votes = 05,000 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 55 votes = 03,727 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican

*: The diary for Florida is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For find any strong candidate more for senate

And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:

AK-Sen: L Murkovski (R-1957) vs T Knowles (D-1943) ?
SD-Sen: J Thune (R-1961) vs ?
ID-Sen: M Crapo (R-1951) vs ?
SC-Sen: J DeMint (R-1951) vs J Hodges (D-1956) ?
AL-Sen: R Shelby (R-1934) vs J Folsom (D-1949) ?
GA-Sen: J Isakson (R-1944) vs ?
UT-Sen: R Bennett (R-1933) vs ?

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Republican Safe or Likely Seats?

All the polls are open.

PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.

Originally posted to abgin on Tue Dec 16, 2008 at 12:24 AM PST.


LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ?

7%4 votes
5%3 votes
23%12 votes
34%18 votes
15%8 votes
11%6 votes
1%1 votes

| 52 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Isn't 1 Landrieu enough? NT (0+ / 0-)
  •  I don't think many of those will run; (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheUnknown285, chigh

    Breaux and Blanco are definite outs; most likely you're looking at a Landrieu v. Melancon run.  It wouldn't surprise me to see Boasso or Campbell throwing their hats in, too.

    It's also worth pointing out that Louisiana voters had never elected a Republican Senator until Vitter.  Never!  So I'm not sure it's the safest seat for a Republican after all.

    Saint, n. A dead sinner revised and edited. - Ambrose Bierce

    by pico on Tue Dec 16, 2008 at 12:55:33 AM PST

  •  No to three of them. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    God, no, to Blanco.  

    Cazayoux should run again in LA-06.  Hopefully, Michael Jackson will beat it (sorry, couldn't resist).

    Melancon needs to stay in the House.  I'm not up for possibly losing ANOTHER House seat in Louisiana.

  •  Well, sadly, (0+ / 0-)

    but i think no one of those who may run, will defeat Vitter. After Clinton years and, especialy, after Katrina, Louisiana swung heavily to Republicans. Cazayoux is a good candidate for his old seat (LA-6), but not Senate, Breaux, Blanco, Huckaby and Caldwell are unlikely candidates, Melancon would also probably lose, and, in addition, there is considerable chance to lose his district if he runs (the LAST Democratic-held district in Louisiana) , Landrieu - 2 is probably too much for Louisiana, and he has somewhat "anti-business" reputation, which is not especially good in this state. Louisiana changed a lot since old populist Huey Long days...

    •  I completely agree about Landrieu (0+ / 0-)

      Landrieu - 2 is probably too much for Louisiana, and he has somewhat "anti-business" reputation, which is not especially good in this state.

      Landrieu lost to Nagin (post Katrina) for mayor precisely because business hates him.  Business said openly that they'd rather have one more term of an incompetent Nagin than a possible two terms of an "anti-business" (in their view) Mitch.  That, plus the African American support for Nagin, defeated Mitch in the mayor's race.  Business doesn't hate Mary Landrieu like that -- she has a reputation of being pro-business and especially friendly to the oil and gas business, which is very big here.  Last time Mary ran, LABI (the most powerful business group) did not oppose Mary and several Republicans even supported her.  That absolutley won't happen with Mitch.  He's won statewide for Lt. Gov. only because nobody (not even me) can even remember if there was anybody on the ballot against him.  However, I just can't see him winning that Senate seat.  

  •  Anything short of David Duke to get rid (0+ / 0-)

    of Diaper Dave!

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