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After the nomination of former governor T Vilsack for the cabinet, seems Iowa lost the best candidate for try defeat this republican incunbent.

Now the strongest democratic for senate seem governor Culver. Their first term like governor end at the same time. He have chance of win against senator Grassley? Democratics in Iowa can win for Senate and for Governor at same time?

Iowa is now blue state. Was nice out the highest republican in this state, but senator Grassley seems today strong. One of most strongs and solids in all blue states with the senators from Maine who will survive this electoral cicle after be reelecteds in 2006 and 2008. Grassley will survive too? I wish democratics can defeat Grassley in 2010 like are making with much republican incunbents in blue states.

This can be the list of possible candidates in Iowa:

  1. Chester John Culver: DC IA 1966 Governor 07- . IA Secretary of State 99-07.
  1. Bruce Braley: IA 1957 USHRep 07- .
  1. David Loebsack: IA 1952 USHRep 07- .
  1. Michael Thomas Blouin: FL IA 1945 USHRep 75-79. Lost for Governor 06. Lost for House 78.
  1. David R Nagle: IA 1943 USHRep 87-93. Lost for House 92.
  1. Patty Jean Judge: IA 1943 Lieutenant Governor of IA 07- . Lost for Governor 06.
  1. Sally Pederson: IA 1951 Lieutenant Governor of IA 99-07.
  1. Thomas John Miller: IA 1944 IA Attorney General 78-90 and 94- . Lost for Governor 90.
  1. Michael Anthony Mauro: IA 1948 IA Secretary of State 07- .
  1. Michael Fitzgerald: IA ? IA State Treasurer 82- .

Not is long list but seems they are some possible candidates so strongs for run in Iowa for Senate and for Governor. For Senate they are risk, but without risk not will be possible win.

Today we will try see like get the best chance of defeat Grassley after Vilsacks nomination for the cabinet.

In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---

PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 60 votes = 07,333 => Likely Democratic
KS-Sen: open R vs K Sebelius (D-1948) ? after 43 votes = 06,240 => Leans Democratic
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 33 votes = 05,606 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 35 votes = 05,571 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 38 votes = 05,307 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 39 votes = 05,000 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 55 votes = 03,727 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican

*: The diary for Florida is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For find any strong candidate more for senate

And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:

AK-Sen: L Murkovski (R-1957) vs T Knowles (D-1943) ?
SD-Sen: J Thune (R-1961) vs ?
ID-Sen: M Crapo (R-1951) vs ?
SC-Sen: J DeMint (R-1951) vs J Hodges (D-1956) ?
AL-Sen: R Shelby (R-1934) vs J Folsom (D-1949) ?
GA-Sen: J Isakson (R-1944) vs ?
UT-Sen: R Bennett (R-1933) vs ?

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Republican Safe or Likely Seats?

All the polls are open.

PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.

Originally posted to abgin on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 01:24 AM PST.

Poll

IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ?

7%2 votes
3%1 votes
14%4 votes
17%5 votes
17%5 votes
21%6 votes
17%5 votes

| 28 votes | Vote | Results

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