Crap, did I really jump back into polling Alaska? Crazy, since everyone was wrong about the 2008 results. People said they wouldn't vote for the two crooks -- Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young -- and then they did! It was a bizarre "Wilder effect" at play. But Alaska is far too entertaining politically to swear off, so we jumped right back in.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 12/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (MoE 5% for Republican over-sample) (No trend lines).
Republican Primaries
Senate
Murkowski 31
Palin 55
House At-Large Seat
Young 33
Parnell 27
Harris 11
Undecided 29
Young and Parnell faced off this year, and Young narrowly pulled it off. Harris is the Speaker of the Alaska House. Harris has indicated he's running, while Parnell is likely to reprise his challenge from this year. He came just inches short.
Palin would crush Daddy's Little Girl in a primary. Remember, Lisa Murkowski was appointed to the seat by her father when he was elected to his ill-fated term as governor. Palin's successful primary challenge to father Murkowski was aided in great part by the backlash to that nepotism. The voters passed a ballot initiative stripping the governor of the power to make such appointments in the future. So given a credible Republican challenger, Murkowski melts.
Since Palin vanquished Murkowski's father, there would be some poetry to also taking out his daughter, but I suspect Murkowski would be vulnerable to other top Republicans. I'd guess at this point that even if Palin passes on the Senate, Murkowski will have to fight for her party's nomination.
As for general election matchups:
Governor
Palin (R) 55
Knowles (D) 38
Re-elect Palin?
Reelect 51
Consider someone else 33
Replace 16
There's no indication that Knowles will run again, but as a stand-in for "strong Democrat", he still fares poorly against Palin. Alaska still sees starbursts. Indeed, while her approval rating is off its highs, it's still pretty darn strong at 60-38. Last time we polled the state, October 28-30, she was at 65-35. So it's down eight points, but she has a long way to fall before she'd be considered in trouble.
Incidentally, Knowles approvals clocks in at 52-37, which isn't too shabby. But given a choice between the two, it's currently not much of a contest.
Senate
Murkowski (R) 49
Knowles (D) 41
Palin (R) 53
Knowles (D) 39
Murkowski (R) 56
French (D) 27
Palin (R) 58
French (D) 27
Murkowsi's approval ratings are at 51-43, which is middling. Knowles, which again is a stand-in for "strong Democrat", keeps her under 50 percent, but the far likelier candidate -- Alaska Sen. Hollis French -- has a long way to go. Given his name ID is about zero, this poll tells us that the Democratic floor in Alaska is 27 percent.
Note that Knowles does slightly better against Palin in a Senate matchup than in the governor matchup. Not a significant difference, but there's a tiny contingent of respondents who prefer her in the governor's mansion than in DC.
House
Young (R) 49
Berkowitz (D) 46
Re-elect Young??
Reelect 37
Consider someone else 27
Replace 36
Young's approval ratings are at 44-54, Berkowitz clocked in at a much better 51-43, which means people don't like their crooked incumbent, but they'll still vote for the sunofabitch. Don't ask me to explain it. Apparently, as distasteful as the crook is, voting for the Democrat is even more distasteful. At least this poll is showing Young in the lead. In the lead-up to this past election, Berkowitz consistently clocked in big leads over Young. It appears some poll respondents are being more honest in their responses this time around. (Young beat Berkowitz 50-45.)
Bonus finding: Mark Begich's approval favorability numbers are 54-38, so he heads off to DC well liked.
Tons of crosstabs below the fold.
ALASKA POLL RESULTS – DECEMBER 2008
The Research 2000 Alaska Poll was conducted from December 15 through December
17, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.
NOTE: There was an over sample conducted among Republican primary voters totaling 400. The margin of error is 5%.
SAMPLE FIGURES:
Men 288 (48%)
Women 312 (52%)
Democrats 120 (20%)
Republicans 223 (37%)
Independents/Other 257 (43%)
18-29 102 (17%)
30-44 198 (33%)
45-59 204 (34%)
60+ 96 (16%)
Anchorage 287 (48%)
Central/Other 120 (20%)
Fairbanks/Juneau 193 (32%)
Republican over-sample
Men 221 (55%)
Women 179 (45%)
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY (MoE 5%)
QUESTION: If the 2010 Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Lisa Murkowski and Sarah Palin?
ALL MEN WOMEN
Sarah Palin 55% 58% 51%
Lisa Murkowski 31% 29% 34%
Undecided (NOT READ)14% 13% 15%
QUESTION: If the 2010 Republican Primary for Congress were held today which of the following would you vote for?
ALL MEN WOMEN
Don Young 33% 36% 29%
Sean Parnell 27% 25% 30%
John Harris 11% 12% 9%
Undecided (NOT READ)29% 27% 32%
GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUPS
GOVERNOR
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 17% 43% 26% 12% 2%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 60% 38% 2%
MEN 64% 35% 1%
WOMEN 56% 41% 3%
DEMOCRATS 23% 75% 2%
REPUBLICANS 88% 10% 2%
INDEPENDENTS 52% 45% 3%
18-29 56% 41% 3%
30-44 64% 34% 2%
45-59 59% 39% 2%
60+ 59% 40% 1%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tony Knowles? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 13% 39% 26% 11% 11%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 52% 37% 11%
MEN 49% 41% 10%
WOMEN 55% 33% 12%
DEMOCRATS 80% 11% 9%
REPUBLICANS 38% 55% 7%
INDEPENDENTS 51% 34% 15%
18-29 53% 35% 12%
30-44 50% 40% 10%
45-59 55% 34% 11%
60+ 49% 41% 10%
QUESTION: If the 2010 election for Governor were held today would you to reelect Sarah Palin would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Palin?
REELECT CONSIDER REPLACE
ALL 51% 33% 16%
MEN 55% 31% 14%
WOMEN 47% 35% 18%
DEMOCRATS 5% 51% 44%
REPUBLICANS 87% 6% 7%
INDEPENDENTS 41% 48% 11%
18-29 45% 31% 24%
30-44 54% 35% 11%
45-59 48% 32% 20%
60+ 58% 33% 9%
QUESTION: If 2010 for Governor were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tony Knowles the Democrat and Sarah Palin
the Republican?
PALIN KNOWLES UNDECIDED
ALL 55% 38% 7%
MEN 58% 37% 5%
WOMEN 52% 39% 9%
DEMOCRATS 7% 86% 7%
REPUBLICANS 91% 5% 4%
INDEPENDENTS 46% 44% 10%
18-29 52% 40% 8%
30-44 57% 36% 7%
45-59 52% 42% 6%
60+ 59% 33% 8%
ANCHORAGE 53% 39% 8%
CENTRAL/OTHER 64% 31% 5%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU 52% 40% 8%
SENATE
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lisa Murkowski? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 12% 39% 33% 10% 6%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 51% 43% 6%
MEN 49% 46% 5%
WOMEN 53% 40% 7%
DEMOCRATS 25% 71% 4%
REPUBLICANS 72% 22% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 45% 48% 7%
18-29 52% 42% 6%
30-44 46% 47% 7%
45-59 54% 40% 6%
60+ 53% 42% 5%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hollis French? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 5% 23% 6% 2% 64%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 28% 8% 64%
MEN 29% 8% 63%
WOMEN 27% 8% 65%
DEMOCRATS 39% 3% 58%
REPUBLICANS 22% 12% 66%
INDEPENDENTS 28% 7% 65%
18-29 30% 6% 64%
30-44 24% 10% 66%
45-59 33% 6% 61%
60+ 23% 11% 66%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tony Knowles the Democrat and Sarah Palin
the Republican?
PALIN KNOWLES UNDECIDED
ALL 53% 39% 8%
MEN 56% 38% 6%
WOMEN 50% 40% 10%
DEMOCRATS 6% 86% 8%
REPUBLICANS 89% 6% 5%
INDEPENDENTS 44% 45% 11%
18-29 51% 40% 9%
30-44 56% 37% 7%
45-59 50% 43% 7%
60+ 57% 34% 9%
ANCHORAGE 51% 40% 9%
CENTRAL/OTHER 62% 33% 5%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU 50% 42% 8%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tony Knowles the Democrat and Lisa Murkowski
the Republican?
MURKOWSKI KNOWLES UNDECIDED
ALL 49% 41% 10%
MEN 52% 39% 9%
WOMEN 46% 43% 11%
DEMOCRATS 5% 87% 8%
REPUBLICANS 83% 7% 10%
INDEPENDENTS 40% 49% 11%
18-29 47% 42% 11%
30-44 52% 38% 10%
45-59 46% 46% 8%
60+ 54% 36% 10%
ANCHORAGE 47% 42% 11%
CENTRAL/OTHER 58% 35% 7%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU 46% 44% 10%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Hollis French the Democrat and Sarah Palin
the Republican?
PALIN FRENCH UNDECIDED
ALL 58% 27% 15%
MEN 62% 26% 12%
WOMEN 54% 28% 18%
DEMOCRATS 7% 74% 19%
REPUBLICANS 90% 6% 4%
INDEPENDENTS 54% 23% 23%
18-29 56% 28% 16%
30-44 61% 25% 14%
45-59 55% 30% 15%
60+ 62% 23% 15%
ANCHORAGE 56% 29% 15%
CENTRAL/OTHER 67% 20% 13%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU 56% 28% 16%
QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Hollis French the Democrat and Lisa Murkowski
the Republican?
MURKOWSKI FRENCH UNDECIDED
ALL 56% 27% 17%
MEN 60% 26% 14%
WOMEN 52% 28% 20%
DEMOCRATS 6% 74% 20%
REPUBLICANS 87% 6% 7%
INDEPENDENTS 53% 23% 24%
18-29 54% 28% 18%
30-44 59% 25% 16%
45-59 53% 30% 17%
60+ 60% 22% 18%
ANCHORAGE 54% 29% 17%
CENTRAL/OTHER 65% 20% 15%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU 54% 28% 18%
U.S. CONGRESS:
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Don Young? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 11% 33% 35% 19% 2%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 44% 54% 2%
MEN 51% 48% 1%
WOMEN 37% 60% 3%
DEMOCRATS 8% 90% 2%
REPUBLICANS 67% 31% 2%
INDEPENDENTS 41% 57% 2%
18-29 32% 65% 3%
30-44 49% 49% 2%
45-59 42% 57% 1%
60+ 50% 47% 3%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ethan Berkowitz? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 18% 33% 26% 17% 6%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 51% 43% 6%
MEN 48% 47% 5%
WOMEN 54% 39% 7%
DEMOCRATS 82% 15% 3%
REPUBLICANS 29% 63% 8%
INDEPENDENTS 56% 39% 5%
18-29 63% 32% 5%
30-44 47% 49% 4%
45-59 53% 39% 8%
60+ 42% 50% 8%
QUESTION: If the 2010 election for Congress were held today would you to reelect DonYoung would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Young?
REELECT CONSIDER REPLACE
ALL 37% 27% 36%
MEN 41% 29% 30%
WOMEN 33% 25% 42%
DEMOCRATS 5% 21% 74%
REPUBLICANS 59% 30% 11%
INDEPENDENTS 33% 27% 40%
18-29 32% 24% 44%
30-44 40% 29% 31%
45-59 35% 25% 40%
60+ 42% 31% 27%
QUESTION: If the 2010 election for Congress were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz the Democrat and Don Young the Republican?
YOUNG BERKOWITZ UNDECIDED
ALL 49% 46% 5%
MEN 53% 43% 4%
WOMEN 45% 49% 6%
DEMOCRATS 7% 89% 4%
REPUBLICANS 81% 13% 6%
INDEPENDENTS 41% 54% 5%
18-29 43% 51% 6%
30-44 52% 45% 3%
45-59 47% 47% 6%
60+ 54% 41% 5%
ANCHORAGE 49% 48% 3%
CENTRAL/OTHER 53% 37% 10%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU 46% 49% 5%
QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Begich? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):
VERY FAV FAV UNFAV VERY UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 20% 34% 25% 13% 8%
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
ALL 54% 38% 8%
MEN 51% 42% 7%
WOMEN 57% 34% 9%
DEMOCRATS 87% 7% 6%
REPUBLICANS 32% 59% 9%
INDEPENDENTS 58% 34% 8%
18-29 59% 34% 7%
30-44 50% 41% 9%
45-59 58% 35% 7%
60+ 48% 43% 9%