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Crap, did I really jump back into polling Alaska? Crazy, since everyone was wrong about the 2008 results. People said they wouldn't vote for the two crooks -- Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young -- and then they did! It was a bizarre "Wilder effect" at play. But Alaska is far too entertaining politically to swear off, so we jumped right back in.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 12/15-17. Likely voters. MoE 4% (MoE 5% for Republican over-sample) (No trend lines).

Republican Primaries

Senate

Murkowski 31
Palin 55

House At-Large Seat

Young 33
Parnell 27
Harris 11
Undecided 29

Young and Parnell faced off this year, and Young narrowly pulled it off. Harris is the Speaker of the Alaska House. Harris has indicated he's running, while Parnell is likely to reprise his challenge from this year. He came just inches short.

Palin would crush Daddy's Little Girl in a primary. Remember, Lisa Murkowski was appointed to the seat by her father when he was elected to his ill-fated term as governor. Palin's successful primary challenge to father Murkowski was aided in great part by the backlash to that nepotism. The voters passed a ballot initiative stripping the governor of the power to make such appointments in the future. So given a credible Republican challenger, Murkowski melts.

Since Palin vanquished Murkowski's father, there would be some poetry to also taking out his daughter, but I suspect Murkowski would be vulnerable to other top Republicans. I'd guess at this point that even if Palin passes on the Senate, Murkowski will have to fight for her party's nomination.

As for general election matchups:

Governor

Palin (R) 55
Knowles (D) 38

Re-elect Palin?
Reelect 51
Consider someone else 33
Replace 16

There's no indication that Knowles will run again, but as a stand-in for "strong Democrat", he still fares poorly against Palin. Alaska still sees starbursts. Indeed, while her approval rating is off its highs, it's still pretty darn strong at 60-38. Last time we polled the state, October 28-30, she was at 65-35. So it's down eight points, but she has a long way to fall before she'd be considered in trouble.

Incidentally, Knowles approvals clocks in at 52-37, which isn't too shabby. But given a choice between the two, it's currently not much of a contest.

Senate

Murkowski (R) 49
Knowles (D) 41

Palin (R) 53
Knowles (D) 39

Murkowski (R) 56
French (D) 27

Palin (R) 58
French (D) 27

Murkowsi's approval ratings are at 51-43, which is middling. Knowles, which again is a stand-in for "strong Democrat", keeps her under 50 percent, but the far likelier candidate -- Alaska Sen. Hollis French -- has a long way to go. Given his name ID is about zero, this poll tells us that the Democratic floor in Alaska is 27 percent.

Note that Knowles does slightly better against Palin in a Senate matchup than in the governor matchup. Not a significant difference, but there's a tiny contingent of respondents who prefer her in the governor's mansion than in DC.

House

Young (R) 49
Berkowitz (D) 46

Re-elect Young??

Reelect 37
Consider someone else 27
Replace 36

Young's approval ratings are at 44-54, Berkowitz clocked in at a much better 51-43, which means people don't like their crooked incumbent, but they'll still vote for the sunofabitch. Don't ask me to explain it. Apparently, as distasteful as the crook is, voting for the Democrat is even more distasteful. At least this poll is showing Young in the lead. In the lead-up to this past election, Berkowitz consistently clocked in big leads over Young. It appears some poll respondents are being more honest in their responses this time around. (Young beat Berkowitz 50-45.)

Bonus finding: Mark Begich's approval favorability numbers are 54-38, so he heads off to DC well liked.

Tons of crosstabs below the fold.

ALASKA POLL RESULTS – DECEMBER 2008
                                                                 
The Research 2000 Alaska Poll was conducted from December 15 through December
17, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

NOTE: There was an over sample conducted among Republican primary voters totaling 400. The margin of error is 5%.



SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  288 (48%)
Women                312 (52%)

Democrats            120 (20%)
Republicans          223 (37%)
Independents/Other   257 (43%)

18-29                102 (17%)
30-44                198 (33%)
45-59                204 (34%)
60+                   96 (16%)

Anchorage            287 (48%)
Central/Other        120 (20%)
Fairbanks/Juneau     193 (32%)

Republican over-sample

Men                  221 (55%)
Women                179 (45%)


REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY (MoE 5%)


QUESTION: If the 2010 Republican Primary for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Lisa Murkowski and Sarah Palin?

                   ALL         MEN         WOMEN      

Sarah Palin         55%         58%         51%
Lisa Murkowski      31%         29%         34%
Undecided (NOT READ)14%         13%         15%


QUESTION: If the 2010 Republican Primary for Congress were held today which of the following would you vote for?

                   ALL         MEN         WOMEN      

Don Young           33%         36%         29%
Sean Parnell        27%         25%         30%
John Harris         11%         12%          9%
Undecided (NOT READ)29%         27%         32%


GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUPS

GOVERNOR


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Sarah Palin? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 17%         43%         26%         12%          2%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 60%         38%          2%

MEN                 64%         35%          1%
WOMEN               56%         41%          3%

DEMOCRATS           23%         75%          2%
REPUBLICANS         88%         10%          2%
INDEPENDENTS        52%         45%          3%

18-29               56%         41%          3%
30-44               64%         34%          2%
45-59               59%         39%          2%
60+                 59%         40%          1%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tony Knowles? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 13%         39%         26%         11%         11%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 52%         37%         11%

MEN                 49%         41%         10%
WOMEN               55%         33%         12%

DEMOCRATS           80%         11%          9%
REPUBLICANS         38%         55%          7%
INDEPENDENTS        51%         34%         15%

18-29               53%         35%         12%
30-44               50%         40%         10%
45-59               55%         34%         11%
60+                 49%         41%         10%


QUESTION: If the 2010 election for Governor were held today would you to reelect Sarah Palin would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Palin?

                   REELECT     CONSIDER    REPLACE    

ALL                 51%         33%         16%

MEN                 55%         31%         14%
WOMEN               47%         35%         18%

DEMOCRATS            5%         51%         44%
REPUBLICANS         87%          6%          7%
INDEPENDENTS        41%         48%         11%

18-29               45%         31%         24%
30-44               54%         35%         11%
45-59               48%         32%         20%
60+                 58%         33%          9%


QUESTION: If 2010 for Governor were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tony Knowles the Democrat and Sarah Palin
the Republican?

                   PALIN       KNOWLES     UNDECIDED  

ALL                 55%         38%          7%

MEN                 58%         37%          5%
WOMEN               52%         39%          9%

DEMOCRATS            7%         86%          7%
REPUBLICANS         91%          5%          4%
INDEPENDENTS        46%         44%         10%

18-29               52%         40%          8%
30-44               57%         36%          7%
45-59               52%         42%          6%
60+                 59%         33%          8%

ANCHORAGE           53%         39%          8%
CENTRAL/OTHER       64%         31%          5%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU    52%         40%          8%

SENATE


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Lisa Murkowski? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 12%         39%         33%         10%          6%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 51%         43%          6%

MEN                 49%         46%          5%
WOMEN               53%         40%          7%

DEMOCRATS           25%         71%          4%
REPUBLICANS         72%         22%          6%
INDEPENDENTS        45%         48%          7%

18-29               52%         42%          6%
30-44               46%         47%          7%
45-59               54%         40%          6%
60+                 53%         42%          5%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Hollis French? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                  5%         23%          6%          2%         64%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 28%          8%         64%

MEN                 29%          8%         63%
WOMEN               27%          8%         65%

DEMOCRATS           39%          3%         58%
REPUBLICANS         22%         12%         66%
INDEPENDENTS        28%          7%         65%

18-29               30%          6%         64%
30-44               24%         10%         66%
45-59               33%          6%         61%
60+                 23%         11%         66%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tony Knowles the Democrat and Sarah Palin
the Republican?

                   PALIN       KNOWLES     UNDECIDED  

ALL                 53%         39%          8%

MEN                 56%         38%          6%
WOMEN               50%         40%         10%

DEMOCRATS            6%         86%          8%
REPUBLICANS         89%          6%          5%
INDEPENDENTS        44%         45%         11%

18-29               51%         40%          9%
30-44               56%         37%          7%
45-59               50%         43%          7%
60+                 57%         34%          9%

ANCHORAGE           51%         40%          9%
CENTRAL/OTHER       62%         33%          5%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU    50%         42%          8%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Tony Knowles the Democrat and Lisa Murkowski
the Republican?

                   MURKOWSKI   KNOWLES     UNDECIDED  

ALL                 49%         41%         10%

MEN                 52%         39%          9%
WOMEN               46%         43%         11%

DEMOCRATS            5%         87%          8%
REPUBLICANS         83%          7%         10%
INDEPENDENTS        40%         49%         11%

18-29               47%         42%         11%
30-44               52%         38%         10%
45-59               46%         46%          8%
60+                 54%         36%         10%

ANCHORAGE           47%         42%         11%
CENTRAL/OTHER       58%         35%          7%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU    46%         44%         10%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Hollis French the Democrat and Sarah Palin
the Republican?

                   PALIN       FRENCH      UNDECIDED  

ALL                 58%         27%         15%

MEN                 62%         26%         12%
WOMEN               54%         28%         18%

DEMOCRATS            7%         74%         19%
REPUBLICANS         90%          6%          4%
INDEPENDENTS        54%         23%         23%

18-29               56%         28%         16%
30-44               61%         25%         14%
45-59               55%         30%         15%
60+                 62%         23%         15%

ANCHORAGE           56%         29%         15%
CENTRAL/OTHER       67%         20%         13%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU    56%         28%         16%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Hollis French the Democrat and Lisa Murkowski
the Republican?

                   MURKOWSKI   FRENCH      UNDECIDED  

ALL                 56%         27%         17%

MEN                 60%         26%         14%
WOMEN               52%         28%         20%

DEMOCRATS            6%         74%         20%
REPUBLICANS         87%          6%          7%
INDEPENDENTS        53%         23%         24%

18-29               54%         28%         18%
30-44               59%         25%         16%
45-59               53%         30%         17%
60+                 60%         22%         18%

ANCHORAGE           54%         29%         17%
CENTRAL/OTHER       65%         20%         15%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU    54%         28%         18%

U.S. CONGRESS:


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Don Young? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 11%         33%         35%         19%          2%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 44%         54%          2%

MEN                 51%         48%          1%
WOMEN               37%         60%          3%

DEMOCRATS            8%         90%          2%
REPUBLICANS         67%         31%          2%
INDEPENDENTS        41%         57%          2%

18-29               32%         65%          3%
30-44               49%         49%          2%
45-59               42%         57%          1%
60+                 50%         47%          3%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ethan Berkowitz? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 18%         33%         26%         17%          6%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 51%         43%          6%

MEN                 48%         47%          5%
WOMEN               54%         39%          7%

DEMOCRATS           82%         15%          3%
REPUBLICANS         29%         63%          8%
INDEPENDENTS        56%         39%          5%

18-29               63%         32%          5%
30-44               47%         49%          4%
45-59               53%         39%          8%
60+                 42%         50%          8%


QUESTION: If the 2010 election for Congress were held today would you to reelect DonYoung would you consider voting for another candidate or would you vote to replace Young?

                   REELECT     CONSIDER    REPLACE    

ALL                 37%         27%         36%

MEN                 41%         29%         30%
WOMEN               33%         25%         42%

DEMOCRATS            5%         21%         74%
REPUBLICANS         59%         30%         11%
INDEPENDENTS        33%         27%         40%

18-29               32%         24%         44%
30-44               40%         29%         31%
45-59               35%         25%         40%
60+                 42%         31%         27%


QUESTION: If the 2010 election for Congress were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz the Democrat and Don Young the Republican?

                   YOUNG       BERKOWITZ   UNDECIDED  

ALL                 49%         46%          5%

MEN                 53%         43%          4%
WOMEN               45%         49%          6%

DEMOCRATS            7%         89%          4%
REPUBLICANS         81%         13%          6%
INDEPENDENTS        41%         54%          5%

18-29               43%         51%          6%
30-44               52%         45%          3%
45-59               47%         47%          6%
60+                 54%         41%          5%

ANCHORAGE           49%         48%          3%
CENTRAL/OTHER       53%         37%         10%
FAIRBANKS/JUNEAU    46%         49%          5%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Begich? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 20%         34%         25%         13%          8%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 54%         38%          8%

MEN                 51%         42%          7%
WOMEN               57%         34%          9%

DEMOCRATS           87%          7%          6%
REPUBLICANS         32%         59%          9%
INDEPENDENTS        58%         34%          8%

18-29               59%         34%          7%
30-44               50%         41%          9%
45-59               58%         35%          7%
60+                 48%         43%          9%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 01:31 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Ugh (11+ / 0-)

    Senator Palin makes me want to puke then eat it just so I can puke again.

    No, even that doesn't quite capture the disgust I feel.

    I demand prosecutions for torture.

    by heart of a quince on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 01:34:25 PM PST

  •  Is this meaningful? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, boofdah

    I mean, did they ever find our why the pollsters did such a horrible job in Alaska?

    •  More like "'Into the Wild'...er Effect" (0+ / 0-)

      Kos: It was a bizarre "Wilder effect" at play.

      Maybe it's not the pollsters who have been going a little crazy living off the local nuts and berries.

      America, you have earned a new puppy.

      by pat208 on Sat Dec 20, 2008 at 04:31:49 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Dear Lord...after this crazy election I am (7+ / 0-)

    half hoping Palin does go to Washington, if only for the train wreck aspect of it. I miss her.

    I think it was Tom Bodet on Wait Wait Don't Tell Me who was saying that it's embarrassing to say you're from AK these days, when it used to be sort of cool.

    Ablington is a scab at the bending factory. Relentless!

    by ablington on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 01:35:36 PM PST

  •  This makes me sound like an awful person... (9+ / 0-)

    ...but honestly, WTF ARE THE PEOPLE IN ALASKA SMOKING?

  •  Dropping oil prices may cramp the Diva's style (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, boofdah, NellaSelim

    When Alaskans start seeing the effects they may start seeing red instead of the aforementioned "starbursts."

  •  Now that Palin's connected to (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SallyCat, boofdah, NellaSelim

    a meth queen she should be a shoe-in. Free drugs for all. What's not to like?

    The weak in courage is strong in cunning-William Blake

    by beltane on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 01:37:21 PM PST

  •  Just wait until those oil checks don't show up (0+ / 0-)

    She had it good when oil was over 80 bucks a barrel, and she could hand out checks like candy. Now, not so much. That is going to take a chunk out of her popularity. My guess, she'll become a talking head on Fox News before too much longer, and blame the state of the Alaskan economy on her successor, Obama and maybe Murkowski for collaborating with Obama. She will then swoop in to take the Senate in 2010. She is nothing if not completely devious.

    Do Pavlov's dogs chase Schroedinger's cat?

    by corwin on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 01:38:37 PM PST

  •  What till the petro dollars go away (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    beltane, Anarchofascist

    If those citizens aren't getting their checks for thousands each year, she will be beatable.  

    Plus, she's got years of screw ups left before any election.

    "Barack, put Helen back in the front row"

    by egarratt on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 01:39:00 PM PST

  •  Sigh. Palin. Palin. Palin. Why? Why? Why? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    Can we just agree to forget about her for the rest of the holiday season? Please?

  •  Alaska is hopeless (3+ / 0-)
    Begich had better enjoy his six years, and good luck to him.  Glad he's aboard, but that place is a frozen (for now) Idaho.

    Wingnuts, asshats, losers: your time is OVER ...

    by Tuffie on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 01:42:31 PM PST

    •  It's the Utah of the North. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Inspector Javert
    •  Anyone know how (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      wishingwell

      Alaska became such a right wing wasteland? It can't just be oil, can it?

      •  In Alaska these days... (4+ / 0-)

        if you say something critical about Palin, you get labeled "Palin-hater." Same logic as in reaction to any Bush criticism, "Why do you Liberals hate America?"

        Big oil (Exxon, Chevron, Marathon) brought Limbaugh and Savage Nation listener-types to the Alaskan population. They hire like-minded people and pay well to people who will put up with their political echo-chambers and other sh*t. Big oil also thoroughly dominates the larger political landscape, which isn't hard when a typical election can be won on $5 or $15 thousand dollars or less.

        Stevens, Murkowski, and Young brought military bases and with that came more right-wing sentiment in a population whose two major cities (Anchorage and Fairbanks) are adjacent to military bases.

        Evangelicals like the easy missionary duty in English that the Alaska "last frontier" represents. Churches compete with gravel pits, bars, and junk vehicles to dominate settled landscapes.

        Self-identified red-necks like the end-of-the-road freedom to do whatever they want. Domestic violence (not just self-identified rednecks) in Alaska is epidemic.

        Intellectuals widely are considered effete.

        Before oil and the influx of population that came with oil (~1960s), Alaska was a Dem state.

        Two term Governor Knowles was a Dem and educated, but he wasn't trustworthy. Too chummy with people like Bob Penney and Bill Allen, for one.

        Knowles' Lt. Gov. Fran Ulmer, however, was smart as a whip -- and trustworthy. She was fantastic.

        "The most significant difference between now and a decade ago is the ... rapid erosion of spare capacities at critical segments of energy chains." Cheney, 2001

        by Akonitum on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 02:17:17 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Back in the day (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          SallyCat

            Alaskans voted for the Gravelanche...twice!

          I'm not a Limousine Liberal; I am a Prius Progressive

          by Zack from the SFV on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 03:05:55 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  Stevens, Murkowski, and Young (0+ / 0-)

          Exactly which military bases did they bring?  So far as I know, the likes of Elmendor, Eielson and Ft Wainwright existed before they did.

          •  The Cold War turned us Red (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            realalaskan

            The military bases that dot my state came about before the unholy trinity took office, but were a by-product of the Cold War.  Because of our proximity to Russia (although we still can't see it), we had a massive influx of military bases, only some of which have shut down since the fall of the USSR.
            Between the military and oil, we've gone from blue to ruby (albeit fading, God help us) red.

            •  Just Want a List of AK Bases... (0+ / 0-)

              ... and when they were established.

              •  Point well taken... (0+ / 0-)

                Both bases significantly pre-date the elected official-dom of Stevens, Frank Murkowski, and Young.

                "The most significant difference between now and a decade ago is the ... rapid erosion of spare capacities at critical segments of energy chains." Cheney, 2001

                by Akonitum on Sat Dec 20, 2008 at 11:02:11 AM PST

                [ Parent ]

            •  Well, Here's What I've Got... (0+ / 0-)

              ...for Alaska bases.  Appreciate anyone updating this list.

              So far as I can tell, all the major bases pre-date the Cold War.

              And, I might add as an aside, it's hard to imagine the concept of bases "dotting" a state the size of AK, or a "massive influx" of them. There are less than 16,000 active duty troops in America's largest state today.  (There are also 5500 Guard and Reserve troops, too, but I can't find a breakout of numbers by state military and Reserve personnel, and the difference between Title 10 and Title 32 troops is huge).

              Major Bases:
              Eielson Air Force Base
              Elmendorf Air Force Base
              Fort Richardson
              Fort Wainwright
              Fort Greely

              Don't Forget:
              Eareckson Air Station (Formerly Shemya AFB)
              Seward Military Resort (surely a bastion of GOP evil!)

              I'd agree that "some" of the bases have shut down since the end of the Cold War -- except that I think most of them have shut down.  I refer to the Distant Early Warning (DEW) Line, a combined US-Canadian initiative to detect over-the-pole bomber flights that effectively died with the onset of ICBMs and nuclear-capable submarines.  

              Here's a list of them.  Goodness -- some of them shut down during the height of the Cold War!

              Keep Hope Alive, however.   With the renewed rumblings of aggression from Putin's Russia, the "dotting" of bases and the "massive influx" of new bases may once again become a reality in your reality of AK!

        •  Thanks for the information (0+ / 0-)

          I remember reading once that Congressional Republicans were reluctant to admit Alaska as a state for the very reason that they thought it would be a reliably D state. What a shame that it has turned out the other way, especially given that it means the plundering of natural beauty for the benefit of big oil.

  •  A poll done in 2006 showed..... (4+ / 0-)

    that in Obama versus McCain,  Obama would only win Illinois and McCain would win all other states.

    So much for polling!

  •  Can we just let them secede (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    The AIP's ideas don't even seem half bad.

    We can start up a fund to bring liberal Alaskans to the lower 48 (preferably in purple states to make them more blue. They're not going to be much help in Massachusetts or California), and then let them secede and Palin can be president of Alaska.

  •  So essentially, Alaskans are happy with their (4+ / 0-)

    hard-core socialist welfare state, and they don't mind if sugar-mama takes a little off the top to redecorate. Or if she destroys people's careers for personal vendettas. They're fine with that.

    •  They're only OK with their socialist welfare (0+ / 0-)

      state. But not a socialist welfare state run by a Kenyan-born black guy named Hussein Obama

    •  i think it's more a matter of (0+ / 0-)

      a small population [less than 650,000 in the entire state] and the state democratic party has been kind of in a shambles... decades in the minority, short of resources, the usual red state story.  comparisons to idaho and utah are apt, but it also is like texas and alabama.
      there seems to be a lot of misunderstanding about the oil money.  it's mandated in the state constitution that the state collect royalties on north slope oil.  the permanent fund was set up 30 years ago and it is a state savings account.  the dividends are paid out of the interest the fund earns and not the principal.  it's going to take a few more years before it 'runs dry'.
      palin's ascendance was an anomoly.  there have been more democratic than republican governors in the state's history.  the national campaign was an eye-opener for alaskans, too.  she'll likely have a hard time getting a second term as governor.  
      but it's still a pretty red state so it depends on who the democrats run against her.

  •  Yep, that seals it for me. (4+ / 0-)

    Alaskans are as stupid as their governor.  Fuck 'em.  Let them go be their own little nation.

    Oh, and Welfare Red Alaska?  I'd like my blue state dollars back, thanks.

    Hope you enjoyed it, Sarah, 'cause we just kicked your silly winking folksy lipsticked ass back to Alaska. Now shut the fuck up and stay there. Also.

    by Kaili Joy Gray on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 01:50:03 PM PST

  •  Palin? Still popular? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wishingwell

    I had no idea Alaskan voters were so crazy.

  •  I'd love to talk to (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    obscuresportsquarterly

    the people who would vote for Palin over Knowles for governor, but Knowles over Palin for senator.  Do they just want to keep their girl close to home?  Is this true Alaskan "independent" thinking at play?  Or have they really given such careful consideration to the job requirements of each office?  Fascinating!

  •  i'll try to explain berkowitz-young (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    realalaskan

    i'm sick of retelling this sorry tale.  i'm getting to the fear and self-loathing phase with it, actually.  but OK, one more time.
    the AK-AL race ended up being between young and berkowitz, but to read about it here and the rest of the internet universe, it was always between young and berkowitz, even when they were each facing primary opposition.  berkowitz was actually raising money on an act blue page [with the assitance of markos and the rahm emanuel machine] and using it in a race against his primary opponent, diane benson.  benson took young on two years before and gave him his closest contest in 16 years, doing it with zero support from the state and national party apparatus.  the democratic primary in '08 was a three-way for awhile, but jake metcalfe [former AK democratic party chair] bowed out.
    young himself said right after the '08 election that benson would have been much stronger opposition.  there's a lot of sour grapes here, from those of us who believed the same.
    maybe instead of throwing up your hands and deciding alaskans are just nuts, kos -- consider that berkowitz was just a weak candidate.  i considered him barely not part of the problem, vis the corruption scandal.  i very much resented that DLC types saw fit to throw a lot of money at berkowitz DURING THE PRIMARY.
    and this has never been addressed to my satisfaction.

    •  Thanks for saying it, Greenomanic! (0+ / 0-)

      I'm going to comment on what you just said down at the bottom.  I had been planning on commenting on this poll, and saying sort of what you have, but I'll expand on it a bit, under its own new line.

      anyway, thanks.

    •  wrong (0+ / 0-)

      Berkowitz kicks ass over Benson any day.  

    •  Berkowitz lost because he's a carpetbagger (0+ / 0-)

      Begich won because long time Alaskans know his family, and remember his father as the hardest working Congressman we ever had.  He won because he did what Berkowitz did not do; he spent time building the political connections in Alaska's Bush villages that are necessary for any Democrat to win a statewide contest.

      Begich had the support of village and regional tribal elders, which Berkowitz did not.  Ethan tried to run an urban campaign, where the Repugs dominate, and ignored the necessary Bush votes that are needed to beat the heavy concentration of Repukes in Anchorage, the Kenai Peninsula, the Mat-Su valley (Palin country), and the rightwing areas around Fairbanks.

      Given Young's legal problems and arrogance this time, Benson very likely could have beaten Young, in part because she has the village connections that Ethan doesn't.  As Phil says, she lost the primary because of the money dumped into Ethan's campaign by Rahm and the fundraising led by Kos, who assumed from the first that Berkowitz was the Anointed One.

      To many of us who were here before statehood, anyone who arrived during or after the oil boom of the '70s is regarded as a carpetbagger, someone who is simply passing through rather than someone who has demonstrated that they will be here for the rest of their life, someone who won't retire to a warm climate.  Long time Alaskans really do resent those who move here and try to make Alaska into a clone of where they came from.  

      Folks from Outside don't get that there are many of us who regard Berkowitz as a carpetbagger who moved here because there was too much competition in his home state of California for Congressional seats.  

      He hasn't demonstrated to rural Alaskans that he understands their cultures, and has not personally asked for their votes.  Until he builds those village connections he can't win statewide office.  Don Young, who was a Fort Yukon village schoolteacher, married to an Athabaskan, has built those alliances in spite of his obnoxious personality.  Diane Benson, a Tlingit who has built those connections by her political activities in the Native community, can effectively challenge Young while Berkowitz, the slick city lawyer, cannot.

      Kos, Rahm, and misguided ActBlue donors can dump all the money and 527 group ads they want into an Alaskan election, and it won't help Berkowitz.  Outside produced ads that demonstrate that the advertisers don't have a clue about Alaskan issues, like the DCCC ads this past cycle, hurt the candidate more they help.

      If you folks Outside want to see Dumb Young replaced, you should stop trying to anoint your favorite in the primary and support whoever wins the Alaska primary instead.

      "Everybody wants to go to Heaven but nobody wants to die" --- Albert King

      by HarpboyAK on Sat Dec 20, 2008 at 03:32:55 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Is it too late to just give back Alaska (0+ / 0-)

    to Russia?

  •  Is Knowles the only Democrat there? (0+ / 0-)

    Geez

  •  Knowles (0+ / 0-)

    In regards to Knowles -- he's lost 2 elections in a row - to Lisa Murkowski and to Palin.  He's done, toast.  Alaska Democrats can do better.

  •  It's too early (0+ / 0-)

    It's too difficult to poll this stuff so early. It's nearly two years away. Palin has pretty good numbers because she's been in the public eye lately.

    She certainly isn't a definite against Murkowski. If she does decide to run for the senate, Murkowski would have to run a pretty good campaign though. She could highlight the fact that Palin took off from her job for months on end, even after the election.

    Good work though. Can't wait till the 2010 midterms. Democrats have the advantage in what seats are up for grabs.

  •  I'd love to see polling on Palin v. Monegan (0+ / 0-)

    That match-up would be fun to watch.

    If the Earth really were your mother, she would grab you with one rocky hand and hold you under water until you no longer bubbled. -- Kathleen Dean Moore

    by Catatonia on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 03:39:45 PM PST

    •  Monegan is running for Mayor of Anchorage (0+ / 0-)

      Just announced yesterday.  Los Anchorage, unlike other Alaskan cities, holds its elections in the spring.

      "Everybody wants to go to Heaven but nobody wants to die" --- Albert King

      by HarpboyAK on Sat Dec 20, 2008 at 03:36:56 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Dem and Rep Favorables are Reversed for Palin (0+ / 0-)

    These numbers seem about right and show a huge plunge in Palin's popularity. I expect by the time her term is over, she is going to be far from the bright shiny new object she once was and is going to look a whole lot like any other corrupt, money grubbing Alaskan politiann, especially if oil prices stay low and Alaskans stop getting rebates and (gasp!) have to actual pay taxes to the state. I think she will face a tough primary battle no matter what she runs for, and may not even make it, depending on how many more gates she manages to ensnare herself in over the next two years. As to the pre-election polls, I think they were probably more accurate then the election results. Remember, Alaska use Dibold machines and no printed ballots. The results which showed a lower voter turnout then the last mid-term, returns that should the same percentage for candidates regardless of which precents had been counted and a the party breakdown almost identical to the last election, all point to questionable results. I think it was very telling that Begich won on the harder to tamper with absentee and early votes.

  •  ... (0+ / 0-)

    Poll cornucopia can be easily shortened to "pornucopia" to save typing.  Glad I could help.  :)

  •  Kos- a couple names to add next time you poll (0+ / 0-)

    Try throwing Kim Elton (male, in case you get fooled by the name) and Beth Kertulla. Both D-Juneau, and due to AK's weird legislature, both spent time in (maybe still are, its been a few years since i left) the majority caucus despite being in the minority party. Both are well respected by colleagues and adept at passing legislation, and I have a hunch might poll well for GOV or AK-AL

    •  50 State Strategy (0+ / 0-)

      it should be noted that the Ds have controlled the state senate for the past two legislatures (this incoming one and last one).  There are 10 Ds and 10 Rs in the Senate. In the House the legislature is 18 D - 22 R.  A hard fought reapportionment and steady growth accelerated since the Dean 50 state strategy has helped tremendously since the Senate was 5 D/15 R and the House was 14 D/26 R  in 2001.  Begich has indicated that he will be actively engaged in assisting with down ticket races.  The key is to develop the bench and foster good candidates in the statewide races.  On another note, Elton remains in the Senate coalition majority, Kertulla has not been in the majority, but is the minority leader at this point.  Both are from Juneau and might not poll so well, but these are baseline polls - the test is, after people learn more about them, do the numbers shift substantially.  Finally, Sarah P.  needed these Ds over the last two years and she used them to pass her reform agenda, then she crapped on them as a nominee.  She also lost her Chief of Staff and key Leg liaison.  She faces a difficult, difficult session and declining oil prices do not help.  She is unlikely to run for reelection and that really opens this race up.

      •  Kerttula's roots are in Palin country (0+ / 0-)

        Kerttula grew up in Juneau and Palmer because her father represented Palmer for many years, first in the Alaska House and then the Senate.  Her parents came to Alaska as children in the 30s as part of the Federal "Colony" program to help Minnesota farm families homestead in the Palmer area.

        As a result, she is well known in Palin country as well as in Southeastern Alaska.

        "Everybody wants to go to Heaven but nobody wants to die" --- Albert King

        by HarpboyAK on Sat Dec 20, 2008 at 03:42:35 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Palin's (Soon To Be) In-Law Problem (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TheCrank

    Bristol Palin's future mother-in-law (or has she already married the father of her child?) was arrested on drug charges.

    From the Anchorage Daily News:

    WASILLA -- A 42-year-old Wasilla woman was arrested Thursday at her home by Alaska State Troopers with a search warrant in an undercover drug investigation. Sherry L. Johnston was charged with six felony counts of misconduct involving a controlled substance. Johnston is the mother of Levi Johnston, the Wasilla 18-year-old who received international attention in September when Gov. Sarah Palin and her husband, Todd, announced their teenage daughter was pregnant and he was the father. Bristol Palin, 18, is due on Saturday, according to a recent interview with the governor's father, Chuck Heath. Troopers served the warrant at Johnston's home at the "conclusion of an undercover narcotics investigation," said a statement issued Thursday by the troopers as part of the normal daily summary of activity around the state. Troopers charged Johnston with second-degree misconduct involving a controlled substance -- generally manufacturing or delivering drugs -- as well as fourth-degree misconduct involving controlled substances, or possession.

    Can't wait to hear how they spin this one.

  •  ah, the always quiet meth voters (0+ / 0-)

    will carry the day for Palin. At least those in the family

  •  Put your money where your mouth is Sarah! (0+ / 0-)

    Sarah Palin recently refused a pay raise for her job as Alaska's Governor.  If Sarah Palin really wants to put her money where her mouth is, she'd say "thanks but no thanks" to the Juneau Road to Nowhere and the Knik Arm Bridge to Nowhere!  Alaska got money for those projects in the same federal spending spree that gave them the other Bridge to Nowhere.  The total cost of both of these projects is well over $1 billion, and the decision is hers to cancel them or let them go forward.  That will be the true test of what's behind her fiscal conservative tough talk.  Check out www.akbridgesandroadstonowhere.org for the details and this video about the crazy dangerous Juneau Road to Nowhere... http://www.youtube.com/...

    •  Right. With close to a trillion coming (0+ / 0-)

      down the pike from Obama and a Democratic Congress in the name of Infrastructure! and Jobs! you'd turn around and bash her for heartlessness. She's not that dumb.

  •  asdf (0+ / 0-)

    Photobucket

    "He'd rather pay a prostitute than pay auto workers." ~Morgan Johnson on David Vitter

    by COkdub on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 05:23:25 PM PST

  •  Thanks for the poll, Kos (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    greenomanic

    Both Knowles and Berkowitz have now outspent their opponents and lost rather dramatically.  Ethan has done that that twice in two years.  

    I hope we can find a lot of new leaders in the Alaska Democratic Party for 2010 and 2012.  Greenmanic, above, and somebody else mention people like Diane Benson and Beth Kerttula.  Kerttula would be more acceptable to the Alaska Democratic Party leadership than has been Diane Benson.

    I've ben trying to convince Diane Benson to get back into her very valuable and powerful civil rights work, and her art.  I'm hoping to create a piece for narrator and orchestra, based on the core of her play about Elizabeth Peratrovich.  Sort of like Aaron Copland's "A Lincoln Portrait."

    If Ethan Berkowitz is going to get anywhere against Don Young in 2010, or anywhere in Alaska politics beyond trying to get his old house seat back, he needs to be seen actually doing something for Alaska, or at least for himself.

    He's had this energy company thingie that he sometimes talks about for almost two years now, but I can't find any mention of it in tax returns, commerce articles, and so on.

    As far as a lot of the other information in the polls Kos has had taken up here, I'm not sure how useful it is, but I'm certain it has some kind of value.  Nobody else has done diddly for polls since November.

    So - thanks, again!

  •  Hillbillies elect Hillbillies . . . (0+ / 0-)

    where else could a bimbo air head like Palin be elected Govenor of the state. 2010 is a long way off, we will see how well Ms. Palin fares with the price of Oil in the tank!

    "God will let you be as stupid as you want to be" Anonymous Deity

    by Blue Dog Buckeye Dem on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 07:02:11 PM PST

  •  Can we just let the AIP have its way, please? (0+ / 0-)

    They can keep all the oil, and we get back the gajillion federal tax dollars we send them every year. They can try putting together an airforce to fight Putin's Giant Head on their own.

    I don't belong to any organized political party. I'm a democrat. -- Will Rogers

    by TheCrank on Fri Dec 19, 2008 at 08:44:40 PM PST

  •  AK situation (0+ / 0-)

    It's really worse than it appears, and it appears bad.  one of my (lawyer) friends (in Anchorage) said, during the Stevens trial and before the election, "I hope he gets convicted (or at least a hung jury) and then wins so the rest of the country can truly get a grip on how fucked up the people here are." He got his wish, only better.  Stevens won before he lost, and got convicted, even though the prosecutors fucked up so bad it looked like they were trying to throw the trial.  That Berkowitz lost to Young is even more telling.  Young is as despicable as they get, and Berkowitz is the rare kind of Dem you can actually be excited about, not just incrementally better than the crook he's running against, and he got beat.  Sad and disturbing.  If you can't beat Young in this particular environment, where he is spending all his campaign cash on lawyers to fend off the FBI, he'll be in office until he dies.  

  •  Sen. Lisa vs. Gov Snowflake: AK perspective (0+ / 0-)

    I think the early polls have it wrong about Palin beating Sen. Murkowski in 2010 for AK Senate. Yes, it caused some heartburn when Sen. Lisa was appointed to the Senate by her unpopular/then Gov. dad (Frank), but most Alaskans believe Lisa has done a good job on her own merit and she easily won re-election. I am a staunch Democrat but would vote for Sen. Lisa Murkowski - especially over Palin. Sen. Murkowski is SO knowledgeable and dedicated, a good listener -- plus she tells the truth and can speak in complete sentences. ... You would not believe the negativity voiced by most Alaskans (even Republicans) about Gov. Snowflake -

  •  So What You Are Saying.. (0+ / 0-)

    is as things look now, SENATOR Palin will enter the 2012 Republican race for President.

    How surprising (not).

    Seriously, Palin was plucked out of obcurity so fast she had no chance to prepare as a credible candidate for VP this year.

    As uncurious as she is about the world in general and as backward as her views are, her Democratic (and Republican) opponents would be fools to underestimate her.

    She may implode, but she is fucking ambitious and will come on strong on 2012. Mark my words.

    (And yes she is an idiot, but she does have charisma and can clearly energize her base).

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