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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 12/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Salazar (D) 49
Elway (R) 38

Salazar (D) 51
Tancredo (R) 37

The "Elway" above is John Elway, former football megastar quarterback for the twice-winning Super Bowl Broncos. In Colorado, that's serious credentials. Even with all that, however, Elway runs only marginally better than unpopular über-wingnut Tom Tancredo in this poll.

The Colorado GOP bench is thin, and a lack of top-tier credible challenger means that Salazar, who isn't exactly the most popular senator ever (his 48-41 approval-disapproval rating is respectable, but nothing to boast about), may have a much easier time getting reelected than might otherwise have been the case.

Full crosstabs below the fold.

COLORADO POLL RESULTS
                                                                 
The Research 2000 Colorado Poll was conducted from December 2 through December 4, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES

Men                  289 (48%)
Women                311 (52%)

Democrats            246 (41%)
Republicans          227 (38%)
Independents         127 (21%)

White                492 (82%)
Black                 24 (4%)
Hispanic              78 (13%)
Other                  6 (1%)

18-29                 92 (15%)
30-44                191 (32%)
45-59                198 (33%)
60+                  119 (20%)

Denver Metro         174 (29%)
Arapahoe/Jefferson   120 (20%)
West                 114 (19%)
Rural/Rest of State  192 (32%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ken Salazar? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 14%         34%         31%         10%         11%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 48%         41%         11%

MEN                 46%         44%         10%
WOMEN               50%         38%         12%

DEMOCRATS           65%         28%          7%
REPUBLICANS         33%         54%         13%
INDEPENDENTS        44%         42%         14%

18-29               50%         39%         11%
30-44               48%         40%         12%
45-59               49%         41%         10%
60+                 46%         44%         10%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tom Trancredo? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 12%         29%         32%         14%         13%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 41%         46%         13%

MEN                 46%         44%         10%
WOMEN               36%         48%         16%

DEMOCRATS            9%         71%         20%
REPUBLICANS         77%         17%          6%
INDEPENDENTS        38%         49%         13%

18-29               39%         49%         12%
30-44               40%         47%         13%
45-59               41%         45%         14%
60+                 43%         44%         13%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Elway? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                  8%         29%         20%          6%         37%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 37%         26%         37%

MEN                 41%         24%         35%
WOMEN               33%         28%         39%

DEMOCRATS           31%         34%         35%
REPUBLICANS         44%         18%         38%
INDEPENDENTS        36%         26%         38%

18-29               36%         27%         37%
30-44               36%         27%         37%
45-59               38%         26%         36%
60+                 38%         24%         38%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ken Salazar the Democrat and Tom Trancredo
the Republican?

                   SALAZAR     TRANCREDO   UNDECIDED  

ALL                 51%         37%         12%

MEN                 49%         40%         11%
WOMEN               53%         34%         13%

DEMOCRATS           85%          6%          9%
REPUBLICANS         11%         72%         17%
INDEPENDENTS        57%         35%          8%

WHITE               48%         40%         12%
BLACK               77%          3%         20%
HISPANIC            62%         29%          9%
OTHER               64%         28%          8%

18-29               53%         34%         13%
30-44               52%         36%         12%
45-59               52%         38%         10%
60+                 48%         40%         12%

DENVER              60%         33%          7%
ARAP/JEFF           52%         34%         14%
WEST                48%         40%         12%
REST                44%         41%         15%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ken Salazar the Democrat and John Elway
the Republican?

                   SALAZAR     ELWAY       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 49%         38%         13%

MEN                 47%         41%         12%
WOMEN               51%         35%         14%

DEMOCRATS           83%          7%         10%
REPUBLICANS         10%         73%         17%
INDEPENDENTS        54%         37%          9%

WHITE               46%         41%         13%
BLACK               75%          4%         21%
HISPANIC            60%         31%          9%
OTHER               62%         30%          8%

18-29               51%         35%         14%
30-44               50%         37%         13%
45-59               50%         38%         12%
60+                 46%         42%         12%

DENVER              58%         34%          8%
ARAP/JEFF           50%         35%         15%
WEST                46%         42%         12%
REST                42%         42%         16%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Dec 08, 2008 at 02:10 PM PST.

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