First, a caveat, of sorts: up till this month, I had used the presidential polling for Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, as they were substantially in the lead in national polling for their party's nominations.
What a difference thirty one days makes.
So, the new method for doing the presidential is rather simple: a four-poll average comprising the following four contests: Clinton-McCain, Clinton-Romney, Obama-McCain, Obama-Romney. Where I remembered to do so, the polling analysis will include the individual results for these races.
And, now, as fellow progressive Casey Kasem would say, on with the countdown....
AL-PRESIDENT: REPUBLICANS 57%, DEMOCRATS 36%
SURVEY-USA (1/23) polls here, as they do every month. After showing some signs of competitiveness, this state is rapidly spiraling out of reach. Obama (down 22 to Romney, and 34 to McCain) fares worse here, but it is not like HRC can be considered competitive in this survey (down 10 to Romney, and 21 to McCain).
CA-PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATS 57%, REPUBLICANS 37%
SURVEY-USA (1/23) polls here as well, and shows that the Golden State is suffering from an epidemic of Bush fatigue. Even "moderate" John McCain takes it on the chin here, losing to HRC by 19 and to Obama by six. Romney would be obliterated in California, as he falls to Clinton by 33 and Obama by 24.
FL-PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATS 45%, REPUBLICANS 39%
P.P.P. (1/4) polled here early in the month, and found no evidence that Florida voters were pissed at the Dems for denying the delegates for the primary election. Apologies, but this is one of the few polls where I DO NOT have the breakdown by candidate.
IA-PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATS 52%, REPUBLICANS 40%
SURVEY-USA (1/6) polled the state right after the caucuses, and found a huge disparity between Clinton and Obama in this Bush '04 state. Obama beats McCain by 17, and Romney by 26. Meanwhile, Clinton beats Romney by just eight, and is actually edged by Romney by four points.
IL-PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATS 58%, REPUBLICANS 37%
RESEARCH 2000 (1/24) finds that, as expected, Barack Obama would thump either GOP frontrunner (+21 on McCain, +27 on Romney) in his home state. The good news for Dems in general: Hillary Clinton wins easily (+14 on McCain, +22 on Romney), as well.
IL-SENATE: DURBIN 54% FAVORABLE, 39% UNFAVORABLE
RESEARCH 2000 (1/24) does not poll a general election matchup, but does offer a pretty interesting look at Durbin's favorable/unfavorable ratings as we head into 2008. A 54-39 split is better than many we have seen, but it does NOT speak to an insurmountable advantage. The Feb 5th Republican primary here will undoubtedly speak to how serious a challenge Durbin will face.
KS-PRESIDENT: REPUBLICANS 48%, DEMOCRATS 43%
SURVEY-USA (1/17) polled here in the middle of the month, and yes--you are reading that right. Both Clinton and Obama lead Mitt Romney in deep-red Kansas at this point (Clinton +3, Obama +2). Both, however, trail John McCain by a fairly solid margin (Clinton by 13, Obama by 14).
KY-PRESIDENT: REPUBLICANS 48%, DEMOCRATS 42%
SURVEY-USA (1/6) polled here at the beginning of the month, and they found Clinton in a considerably stronger position (up 6 on Romney, down 10 to McCain) than Obama (up 1 on Romney, down 19 to McCain).
KY-03: REP. JOHN YARMUTH (D) 49%, ANNE NORTHUP (R) 47%
VOTER/CONSUMER RESEARCH (1/14) is a Republican polling outfit, so take with salt. That said, even a Republican pollster has the former occupant of the Kentucky 3rd down to the current occupant. Northup is also getting an awfully late start.
MA-PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATS 52%, REPUBLICANS 43%
SURVEY-USA (1/23) polls this one, which shows a relatively modest Democratic edge here in deep-blue Massachusetts. The key is McCain, who only trails Clinton by four, and actually beats Obama by five. Ironically, the former GOP governor of Massachusetts (Romney) gets thumped here by both Democrats (Clinton by 24, Obama by 13).
MD-PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATS 50%, REPUBLICANS 40%
RASMUSSEN (1/2) does a rare general election poll here, and finds Obama in a much better position to hold the state than Clinton. Obama leads both candidates (McCain +6, Romney +21), while Clinton earns a split in the state (down 2 to McCain, up 13 on Romney).
MN-PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATS 50%, REPUBLICANS 39% (2 POLLS)
SURVEY-USA (1/23) polled here a week ago, and gave the Dems a modest four-point edge. Both leading Romney handily, both losing to McCain within the margin of error. U. OF MINNESOTA (1/27) comes in a few days later, and finds the Democrats in solid shape, with the closest race being a ten-point Democratic lead in the race between Clinton and McCain.
MN-SENATE: AL FRANKEN (D) 43%, SEN. NORM COLEMAN (R) 40%
U. OF MINNESOTA (1/27) also polled the Senate race, and finds this somewhat shocking result. Other polls have shown Coleman well under 50%, and in fairly weak shape. This is the first one I have seen that actually shows him losing to one of the Democratic candidates. It is also the first one to see a substantial difference in the general election numbers between Al Franken and Mike Ciresi (who trailed Coleman 43-38 in this poll)
MO-PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATS 46%, REPUBLICANS 44% (2 POLLS)
SURVEY-USA (1/13) came here in mid-January, and found both Democrats beating Romney and losing to McCain (HRC doing a few points better than Obama in each heat), RESEARCH 2000 (1/24) comes in two weeks later, and finds the Democrats winning all four matchups, with margins ranging from one (Clinton-McCain) to ten (Obama-Romney) points.
MO-GOVERNOR: JAY NIXON (D) 50%, GOV. MATT BLUNT (R) 41%
RESEARCH 2000 (1/24) polls this race (but hadn't Blunt already dropped out by the 24th??!!??), and makes us all lament once again that Governor Blunt had not decided to stick this one out. Waiting to see how Nixon will poll against presumptive GOP frontrunner Kenny Hulshof.
NC-PRESIDENT: REPUBLICANS 47%, DEMOCRATS 43%
P.P.P (1/21) polls the Tar Heel state, and finds a real spread between Clinton and Obama here. Clinton beats Romney by 7, and loses to McCain by 7. Obama lose both trial heats (-2 to Romney, -14 to McCain).
NC-SENATE: SEN. ELIZABETH DOLE (R) 48%, KAY HAGAN (D) 35%
P.P.P (1/21) polled the two main statewide downballot races as well. Dole still leads the US Senate race by double-digits, but she is still unable to progress much past the 50% threshold, if at all. Dole leads the other main Dem candidate (Jim Neal) by a slightly wider margin.
NC-GOVERNOR: RICHARD MOORE (D) 40%, PAT MCCRORY (R) 35% (2 POLLS)
Two pollsters here (P.P.P. and Rasmussen) come up with an identical margin. Curiously, after a campaign year in which the other primary Democratic challenger (Beverly Perdue) polled better than Moore, Moore has been the stronger contender against McCrory in trial heats this month.
NC-08: LARRY KISSELL (D) 49%, REP. ROBIN HAYES (R) 47%
GREENBERG QUINLAN ROSNER (11/15) polls this race, and they are a Democratic firm, so adjust your expectations accordingly. Kissell did not have a first-tier fundraising year, but he is a known quantity, and is polling extremely well.
NH-GOVERNOR: GOV. JOHN LYNCH (D) 45%, FRANK GUINTA (R) 32%
AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP (12/19) gives us an intriguing possibility. After an election in which he almost set the state record for margin of victory, Democrat John Lynch may face a real challenge against Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta. Lynch still leads, but he is under the magic 50% threshold.
NJ-SENATE: SEN. FRANK LAUTENBERG (D) 38%, ANNE ESTABROOK (R) 24%
MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY (1/13) polls here, and tells us what we already knew. While Frank Lautenberg is a narrow favorite over his Republican challenger, his own lackluster popularity might make a real race out of it.
NM-PRESIDENT: REPUBLICANS 47%, DEMOCRATS 45%
SURVEY-USA (1/23) polled here as part of their monthly set of presidential surveys. Here Obama fares a bit better than HRC (although they both lose to McCain by nine points).
NY-PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATS 53.5%, REPUBLICANS 37.5% (2 POLLS)
SIENA UNIVERSITY (1/17) polls here and gives both Democrats reasonably good numbers (Obama-McCain is a two-point race). A week later, SURVEY-USA (1/23) found similar results (HRC a little stronger, of course, in her "home" state). The margins were about four points wider, though.
OH-PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATS 45.5%, REPUBLICANS 41% (2 POLLS)
P.P.P. (1/4) and SURVEY-USA (1/6) both polled here early in the month. In the SurveyUSA poll, both Democrats beat Romney and lose to McCain. HRC (down 2) is marginally more competitive in this battleground state than Obama (down 7).
OR-PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATS 51%, REPUBLICANS 42%
SURVEY-USA (1/13) shows (and I hate to sound like a broken record) that the Democrats struggle a bit against McCain (Clinton -4, Obama Even). It also shows (and I love to sound like a broken record) that both Democrats have a decisive edge over Romney (Clinton +16, Obama +23).
PA-PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATS 43%, REPUBLICANS 43%
RASMUSSEN (1/3) polled here early in the month, and they show a real cause for concern for Democrats. In this must-have Democratic state, both Clinton (48-42) and Obama (48-38) fall to Senator McCain. Both defeat Romney, with Clinton a few points ahead of Obama.
UT-PRESIDENT: REPUBLICANS 64%, DEMOCRATS 22%
DAN JONES (1/10) polls here, and finds no surprises here whatsoever. They did things a little different--they named all of the Republican and Democratic candidates on one ballot, and then asked for selections. Romney alone led with well over 50% of the vote.
VA-PRESIDENT: REPUBLICANS 46.5%, DEMOCRATS 44.5% (2 POLLS)
RASMUSSEN (1/2) and SURVEY-USA (1/17) disagree on exact numbers, but the average margin is the same in both. In the SUSA poll, we see that Clinton (+8 vs. Romney, down 9 vs. McCain) does a little bit better than Obama (+4 vs. Romney, down 12 vs. McCain).
VA-SENATE: MARK WARNER (D) 53%, JIM GILMORE (R) 38%
RASMUSSEN (1/2) polled here at the start of the month. As has been the custom throughout, the folks at Rasmussen have this race closer than anyone else does.
WA-PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATS 54%, REPUBLICANS 41%
SURVEY-USA (1/13) does their monthly duty here, and finds that Barack Obama is a much better bet in the Great Northwest (+31 vs. Romney, +9 vs. McCain) than is Clinton (+16 vs. Romney, -3 vs. McCain).
WA-GOVERNOR: GOV. CHRISTINE GREGOIRE (D) 48%, DINO ROSSI (R) 35%
The ELWAY POLL (1/6), which was heavily disputed by conservatives, shows real daylight between the incumbent and the challenger. Most polls, in fairness, have had this race closer. But virtually all of them have shown Gregoire in the lead. Remember, this was the most heavily disputed election in 2004, with a recount flipping the winner and giving Gregoire a narrow win of 0.01%.
WI-PRESIDENT: DEMOCRATS 47%, REPUBLICANS 44%
SURVEY-USA (1/23) polls the Badger State, and finds the common theme--both Dems beat Romney, and lose to McCain. Obama (+11 to Romney, down 2 to McCain) fares marginally better than Clinton (+9 to Romney, down 4 to McCain).
So...it does not take much to see the common theme.
The Republicans may be blundering into nominating their best candidate in a national election. Now, I happen to think that McCain can be brought back to Earth. But it is going to be a walk. Anyone who is measuring the White House drapes at this point for the Democrats has their head squarely up their ass. This is the first round of what promises to be a 12-round slugfest.
I suspect McCain might be at the zenith of his public goodwill. His numbers are ridiculously stratospheric (60-30 fav/unfav). No candidate has been elected president with numbers that lofty since Reagan in 1984. In an open seat, I am not sure it has ever happened. He can be had. But it will take work.
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