Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid, of Huckabee/McCain ticket

This hardly qualifies as a diary, more like a comment.  Just wanted to share a recent experience.    I'll throw in a poll to give it some meat.

While visiting my elderly dad in Tennesseee, I was treated to a treatise by a couple of locals (white males) on Clinton versus Obama.

They are convinced Obama was raised Muslim, and explained to me how Osama bin Laden has promised to strike us "from within."   With respect to Clinton, on the other hand, they opined that maybe a woman would be ok because she wouldn't be trying to "kill kill kill" all the time.

I know thinking like this is incomprehensible to most readers of this blogsite, but then I'll wager most of you have never lived in the Bible belt.    So what does this have to do with McCain/Huckabee?   Just that the two of them would present a likeable (in Huckabee's case) and strong (in McCain's case) alternative that the Republicans would sell as compassionate conservatism (what a lot of people thought they were voting for in GWB).  

Also, we should all be aware that just as Hillary and Barack are emphasizing their anti-war credentials in the primary and will moderate rightward in the general, savvy people understand that John is doing the same in reverse.   No way will McCain keep us in Iraq for 100 years.  He's just saying that to bring in the rightwing fringes.  In fact, historically speaking it's a warmonger who can end wars (Nixon/Kissinger ending Vietnam & going to China, same thing with Moshe Dyan -- I think -- in Israel) because he's not suspected of being "weak".

I don't need any flames on this, ok?    All I'm saying is, "mark my words."   If you have reasoned arguments or refuting evidence, please send 'em along.  Otherwise, don't waste space on KOS storage devices.

•  I see whata your saying but

  I think the GOP should be afraid of an Obama/whoever his VP is ticket

  by SensibleDemocrat on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:34:56 AM PDT

  •  Amen!

    I'm tired of being afraid.  Let them worry for a change!

    by k00kla on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:36:42 AM PDT

    •  A guaranteed loser if Obama is the Dem

      nominee.  They'll win Arkansas, but maybe not even Arizona.  Utah'll be tight.  Tennessee close, too.  I don't see where else...

      by Mogolori on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:42:17 AM PDT

    •  This is not about "fear" it's about preparation.

      There are two truisms of relevance here:

      1. Know thy enemy.

      2. Keep your friends close, and your enemies closer.

      by mrogers2007 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:45:01 AM PDT

      •  Huckabee Has Been On TV Nonstop Today

        Every network, every show

        by bernardpliers on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:31:56 AM PDT

  •  Tell Them "The GOP Thinks You Are Stupid"

    Of course, it may be too late

    by bernardpliers on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:17:43 AM PDT

•  The Bible Belt doesn't scare me.

  Because they will vote for the Repubs come hell or high water.  

  McCain must take an Evangelican to solidify the base, and he will lose his Independent "mojo" as a result.  If he doesn't, he will risk losing states in the south in general, and the border states specifically.

  by TheStormofWar on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:36:09 AM PDT

  •  I live in bible belt

    and what you are saying is true, come hell or high water most of them will vote Grim Old Party.

    However one important aspect to remember is that in the bible belt under the southern strategy, it is ingrained to 'vote for the person and not the party" I remind people of that, as I do the grim old party when they begin speaking about 'coat tails" in bringing in more Republics for the Congress, that old coat tails thing doesn't always hold up in all elections.

    by Wary on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:02:08 AM PDT

  •  I live in KY

    and we went twice for Bill Clinton, and we just kicked our Rebub. Gov. out on his ass.  A Dem can win in the south. It just has to be the right Dem.

    by Matilda on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:06:53 AM PDT

  •  what scares me is huckebee as VP

    with a 72 year old mccain as president. just thinking about huckebee as president ought to cause democrats to blanch

    by kuvasz on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:38:58 AM PDT

•  Naw

  Ever wonder why Huckabee doesn't have any money? It's because the country-club Republicans and corporate types don't like him. They won't like him any better as presidential candidate, if we're talking Huckabee/McCain.

  by gracchus on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:36:22 AM PDT

  •  true, but in terms of votes there aren't

    that many country-club Republicans and corporate types. Those guys can give a lot of money, but they can't cough up many votes, being as they are less than 5 percent of the population.

    That being said, I think a McCain-Huckabee ticket would be the Repubs strongest option at this point.

    I'm an Obama supporter, so I think Obama would win in a landslide. I also think Clinton could win, but it would be a lot closer and hurt us a lot farther down the ticket in local races. And we need to increase our margins in the House and Senate.

    by Midwest Meg on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:41:47 AM PDT

    •  This is the U.S.

      Money talks. If the wallets stay closed for McCain and Huckabee, they lose.

      by gracchus on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:44:18 AM PDT

  •  Huckabee has plenty of money.

    He's got the whole Stephens Group with its connections to Rockefellers behind him.

    The story put out by the Club For Growth was bogus--designed to make him look more liberal than he is.

    He wants to relegate morality to the churches. That means that the government will be an amoral entity with no social standards of behavior to enforce.

    by hannah on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:47:22 AM PDT

•  If Huckabee makes it to the top or bottom of the

  ticket, we are in big trouble and a Clinton/Obama or Clinton/Edwards ticket is the only way to win.  She has real strength in key states like Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee and Florida and is the only candidate we have to blunt Huckabee's appeal in the south and McCain's appeal in the west.

  by khyber900 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:36:58 AM PDT

  •  Huckabee

    probably REDUCES McCain's appeal in swing states. He's only really popular among the Christian evangelicals, who matter most in the core southern states that will go to McCain no matter who he runs with. The country club types and the western "libertarian" Rs would probably stay home, and the moneybags will probably be slow at bringing out their checkbooks.

    by gracchus on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:41:24 AM PDT

    •  Precisely. Huckabee is poison in Ohio,

      Pennsylvania, etc.  A McCain/Huckabee or Huckabee/McCain ticket is not one to be afraid of. Someone with more centrist appeal (Bloomberg?) might have more pull for McCain.

      by Bartimaeus Blue on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:45:25 AM PDT

      •  If Bloomberg wanted the VP slot

        he wouldn't have dropped out of the Republican party.

        by gracchus on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:51:59 AM PDT

    •  Exactly.....

      I was listening to someone (ordinary voter) being interviewed on NPR.  He (inexplicably) had supported Rudy, but now was supporting Obama?!

      Anyway, he said that if Hillary won the nomination he would probably vote McCain unless "he does somthing stupid like put Huckabee on the ticket".

      McCain voters ARE NOT fundies.

      by lrhoke on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:01:45 AM PDT

  •  Uh.....

    Obama won Missouri and Florida wasn't a fair contest.  Doesn't matter if she does better in these few southern states when nationwide polls are showing that Obama can do much better against McCain.

    by lrhoke on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:04:05 AM PDT

    •  Uh..... Obama won in a democrat primary,

      which is a lot different thing altogether than  the GE.

      by ichibon on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:19:24 AM PDT

    •  Hillary won every county in MO that

      Democrats tend to lose in GEs.  Obama only won the counties that usually go Democratic.  Hillary has the broader reach.

      by khyber900 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:57:50 AM PDT

•  You aren't really bringing much to the table

  in the ways of reasoned arguments or refuting evidence yourself.

  I've lived in the Bible Belt. And I think Obama would beat McCain and whoever he takes along on the Straight Talk Express™ handily this November.

  by haruki on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:37:37 AM PDT

  •  True, the diary raises a critical topic

    but doesn't go far in elucidating it.  However just those two names in conjunction make me shiver with horror.

    I'm an Edwards voter who can accept HRC or BHO with good graces.  But I voted BHO last week because we desperately need the wave and I hope he can deliver it.  While I respect HRC, I do fear she might lose a matchup against McCain and whoever.  And if that whoever is Huckabee, I'll be unhappier still.  

    by lgmcp on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:44:15 AM PDT

    •  Except what this diary is saying is that we lose

      in core Republican states.  And that is no surprise.  So, no real worry.  I don't think anyone in their right mind thinks that any Dem candidate short of Moses/Jesus would win in core Repub areas like Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, etc.

      by Bartimaeus Blue on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:51:34 AM PDT

      •  Any Dem slate will lose in many "red" states

        but a Dem slate that loses in ALL of them, won't prevail.  I honestly think this thing could go either way, even after the magnitude of BushCo's malfeasance.  

        by lgmcp on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:06:46 AM PDT

        •  Nah. I don't think it matters one whit

          whether we lose Alabama, Tennessee and Mississippi. There are quite a few scenarios in which the Coasts and  enough of the Midwest are enough to win a convincing victory in the Electoral College without all of the Old South.  

          And, BTW, I don't think the Dems stand a bad chance with either Obama or Clinton in a lot of the New South.  North Carolina will be in play, as will Virginia.  And Florida looks good too.  

          by Bartimaeus Blue on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 01:49:59 PM PDT

      •  They're still mad

        at the Dems over integration?

        by Virginia mom on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:54:12 AM PDT

        •  Don't you think?

          Not just integration.  Also being the party of godless, Jewish, homosexual organized labor and immigrants who don't speak English, as well as using hard-earned tax dollars to teach 'Volution and that the races should mix.  Dems are also soft on crime, weak on our foreign policy and all for coddling the 'terrists.  And don;t forget that the Dems are anti-military.  

          Yeah.  A good deal of the Republican south is still made at us over integration.

          by Bartimaeus Blue on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 01:47:11 PM PDT

      •  Clinton took the following red/sin states in 1992

        In 1992, Clinton took

        Georgia
        Kentucky
        Louisiana
        Missouri
        Ohio
        Pennsylvania
        Tennessee (by 5 percentage points, a lot!)
        West Virginia

        by mrogers2007 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 04:02:14 PM PDT

•  didn't you at least try

  to talk them out of the ridiculous idea that Obama is a secret Muslim?

  by Kimball Cross on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:37:53 AM PDT

  •  Oh sure, I've tried for decades, but sometimes

    it's like talking to a martian.    They tend to walk away chuckling "crazy Californian."  

    by mrogers2007 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:40:31 AM PDT

    •  apparently

      Irony isn't something you're familiar with.

      Otherwise, don't waste space on KOS storage devices.

      by FireCrow on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:42:05 AM PDT

    •  this might work

      John (McCain) the Baptist?

      "It plays a role in my life. By the way, I'm not Episcopalian. I'm Baptist," McCain told the Associated Press after a rally in Hilton Head, South Carolina.

      But the Senator's biography in the 2007 edition of the Congressional Directory lists his faith as Episcopalian.  McCain also attended an Episcopal high school in the Washington D.C. area.

      At a recent Fox News debate, each candidate was introduced with a short description that included religion. McCain's was described as Episcopalian, and neither the candidate nor the campaign issued a correction or clarification.

      by sc kitty on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:48:18 AM PDT

      •  Maybe he meant

        he's been BAPTIZED. :P

        by gracchus on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:22:54 AM PDT

•  Bible Belt

  will not have the effect or power it had in the last two elections.  Way more people in other parts of th ecountry will be coming out to vote this election and which will diffuse the BB vote.  Their day is done for a while.  The primaries and caucus attendance bears this out.  Nothing is for certain except the disgust for the Republican party at this point in the other parts of the country.

  by tobendaro on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:37:54 AM PDT

  •  We can certainly hope so.

    by mrogers2007 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:41:57 AM PDT

    •  It's not hope

      It's borne out by the turnout.

      People don't come out and vote in a PRIMARY only to turn around and vote for the OTHER side in the general. In many instances, there was NOTHING else on the ballot, and they didn't have to be registered as one party or the other.

      If they wanted to vote for McCain or any of the other Rs, they would have done so. They didn't - they came out and voted for Clinton or Obama, and they did so at DOUBLE the numbers for ALL the Rs combined.

      Even in some heavily REPUBLICAN state/districts.

      This is ours to lose - and baring some dramatic change for the GOOD in the economy AND Iraq, I can't see the Rs winning much of anything in November.

      by mmacdDE on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:51:23 AM PDT

  •  War Fatigue In The Southern States With Bases

    People are not whooping it up for sending theit neighbors for a 4th tour. The war was a liability in 2006 for the GOP, and it'll drag them to the bottom this time. There's not going to be a rush of jingoistic  hoopla like Rudy expected.

    by bernardpliers on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:22:23 AM PDT

  •  Considering the primary...

    ...turn out for Dems. far out numbered the Reps. in many, if not all, the BB states, I don't think the Reps. can take those states for granted, particularly with Mccain as the nominee.  Couple that with the drubbing that Mac & Huck are taking with the right wing hate mongers (Rush, Coulter, Dobson, et al) and their chances diminish even more.

    by carver on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 11:01:51 AM PDT

•  Huckabee is stealthily formidable

  I met him a couple of years ago when he came to Oregon to promote his book and meet with local people to talk about the importance of physical education.

  He is immensely likable and authentic, has that great self-deprecating humor going on, and is quite bright.

  And there's this.

  by vard on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:39:26 AM PDT

  •  That's hilarious!

    but she sure looks to be pimping herself... in a weird sort of way... ;)

    "Generosity, Ethics, Patience, Effort, Concentration, and Wisdom"

    by Dood Abides on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:46:28 AM PDT

  •  Well, I'm sold.

    by Crashing Vor on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:52:25 AM PDT

•  McCain/Keyes

  Think about it--GOP would love to have an African-American on the ticket so they can claim to be "historic" just like the Dem ticket will be. People have been floating Colin Powell's name.

  People have been floating Huckabee as a VP (or in your case, as P?) because he brings in the religious vote.

  Why not get a 2-in-1--Alan Keyes is both African-American AND religious right.

  Brilliant!

  Bust out the popcorn!

  by reid fan on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:39:38 AM PDT

  •  Yeeooow! That would be a strong (and scarey!)

    ticket.  

    by mrogers2007 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:41:21 AM PDT

    •  Keyes could lose to Obama

      twice.

      by gracchus on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:42:34 AM PDT

    •  I'm sure Obama would LOVE

      to take on Keyes again, given how it turned out last time!

      by reid fan on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:43:24 AM PDT

    •  Keyes? Keyes? That's a non-starter.

      The man is nuts.  He has zero appeal to any constituency.  He won't make a dent in Obama's core support or Hillary's for that matter.

      by Bartimaeus Blue on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:49:09 AM PDT

  •  No way.....

    Would John McCain choose Alan Keyes.  Everyone, even "W", thinks that Keyes is NUTS.

    by lrhoke on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:54:36 AM PDT

•  I love NM and it would break my heart to leave

  but if Huckabee is on McCain's ticket, and if that ticket wins, I AM gone, to Candada.  We spent about three hours surfing this morning, doing research on small cities in Western Canada.  

  As a married gay person, I have a lot to lose under a Huckabee regime.  Starting with my sense of self-respect, for tolerating it.

  by lgmcp on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:39:44 AM PDT

•  McCain/Huckabee ticket is nothing to fear

  Not in the slightest.

  The Democrats are going to win the general election. I think Obama would run stronger, but if Hillary takes it she will win regardless.

  McCain "won" (not official yet) because he appeals to moderate conservatives. Huckabee got his bump from the right-wing radio blasting McCain and energizing their base for Huckabee. But it was all too late. I think Huckabee will drive out some Independents and moderates that would have otherwise voted for McCain.

  Just my opinion.

  by USArmyParatrooper on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:42:10 AM PDT

•  Um. We weren't going to win Tennessee anyway.

  anyway.

  So.  Not scared of this.  Moreover an informal survey of friends who really are swing voters in Ohio -- they went Bush in 00 and 04, are now telling me that they would vote for Clinton over Obama, but would support either Clinton or Obama over McCain.

  So I'm encouraged.  Not scared.

  by Bartimaeus Blue on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:42:50 AM PDT

  •  We can win TN

    Bill Clinton won in 92 and 96.TN went for Bush in 00.Mat God have mercy on their souls.

    by kayfromsouth on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:06:36 AM PDT

  •  We won TN in 1992 and 1976 -- the ONLY

    elections in which we've replaced a Republican in the White House in the past 50 years, btw.  

    by mrogers2007 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 04:13:24 PM PDT

•  I don't see Repubs putting Huckabee

  on the ticket.  McCain will be trying to move center in his campaigning after the primary, and Huckabee on the ticket wouldn't let him do that.  Also, with McCain being so darn old, the veep choice would get a lot of scrutiny, and Huck is just too scarey to the rest of the country.  Sleep well.

  by hearthmoon on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:44:02 AM PDT

  •  nt

    Don't you think that they will need to appeal to and excite the religious right in order to pull in enough votes?

    by because on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:05:09 AM PDT

    •  nope, the base is finite

      just not enough crazies in the world to pull it off.

      by hearthmoon on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:11:22 AM PDT

•  This is not a demographic we can win easily...

  They don't take a real world view of politics.
  They vote as they are told to from the pulpit.

  by manwithnoname on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:44:57 AM PDT

•  The *concern* is noted. nt

  by episty on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:47:04 AM PDT

•  I happen to think McCain/Huckabee is brilliant!

  I mean, leave it to the Republicans to find a way to unite the Democrats behind whoever wins the nomination!  ;o)

  by arielle on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:47:46 AM PDT

•  I'm rooting for the

  HUCKABEE/HARRIS '08 ticket. Live the dream!

  

  by Buffalo Girl on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:47:57 AM PDT

•  Bible Belt

  Several points:

  A state in the Bible Belt is not going to be the state that gives the Democratic the magic Electoral College vote #270.  Any state in the Bible Belt won by the Democratic nominee is going to just be adding to an already solid general election victory.

  Extrapolating the astonishingly small and skewed sample of people one encounters in their one life as representative of a national trend is grossly erroneous.  My immediate work environment (corporate America, Minneapolis) includes 12 individuals.  Three of them are big fans of Mike Huckabee.  Does this men I think that a Huckabee presence on the GOP ticket will swing a quarter of the upper Midwest to the GOP?  Hardly.

  For every voter Mike Huckabee thrills deep in the Bible Belt, there's another voter in Ohio or Colorado or Virginia or New Mexico or Iowa (swing states) who is shaking their head in dismay.

  Frankly, I love the thought of a McCain-Huckabee ticket.  Such a pairing would do nothing to appease the FiCons, nothing to appease those who wring their hands over immigration, and would still leave the SoCons upset over the hated apostate McCain atop the ticket.

  by Collideascope on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:48:04 AM PDT

•  McCain and Huckabee only cover two of the 3 legs

  of the Republican base.  The three being insecurity, intolerance, and deficits (or as they say defense, family values, and tax cuts).

  McCain has the insecurity leg covered and Huckabee the intolerance leg.  Neither satisfactorily covers the deficit leg for conservative happiness.

  by because on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:49:35 AM PDT

  •  I'm sure they will manage

    to spend too much money on something.

    by MyBrainWorks on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:51:46 AM PDT

  •  I thought the three legs were:

    McCain and Huckabee only cover two of the 3 legs of the Republican base.

    Theocrats
    Plutocrats
    Kleptocrats

    by pat208 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:54:03 AM PDT

    •  thats a better way of putting it

      by because on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:55:31 AM PDT

•  I live in Oklahoma.....

  And the type of people you are talking about represent some of the most ignorant people in the country.  They fall in the 30% of idiots who still think Bush is great.

  Watching the record breaking numbers of people who are coming out to vote for democrats, and watching the fracturing of the republican party, it is fairly clearly that the redneck fundy vote doesn't have much clout any more.

  The people in this country have ABSOLUTELY woken up.

  by lrhoke on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:50:09 AM PDT

  •  CPAC Wants Condi For VP

    The don't even know she's gay!

    by bernardpliers on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:31:06 AM PDT

•  My relatives in Alabam

  described McCain/Huckabee as a "dream ticket."

  I think they'd describe both the Clintons and the Kennedy's as evil.

  No, we're not winning their vote.  The good thing is that we don't need to.  Even Jimmy Carter (a native son) didn't get votes in the Bible belt.  No Dem wins the hardcore conservatives.  

  Obama has shown an extraordinary abilty to get independents and moderate republicans.  He'll win the independents in all of the swing states and motivate dems to turn out in record numbers.

  I'm willing to go on record as saying that Obama would not only win the GE, he'd win it by a large margin.

  by JCross on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:50:22 AM PDT

  •  I'd like to further add that

    not only will we win the Presidency, we'll get a solid majority of the House and close to a veto-proof number in the Senate.

    But I could be wrong. It wouldn't be the first time.

    by mmacdDE on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:55:24 AM PDT

  •  Carter won

    the entire Bible Belt in 1976 and only narrowly lost in 1980.

    by nrafter530 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:05:58 AM PDT

    •  You're right!

      I was only looking at 1980 when he won his home state and lost everywhere else.  But, he did dominate the South in 1976.  Wow!  Looking at that map, things have really changed since then.

      by JCross on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:09:56 AM PDT

      •  Yeah

        although, as you'll notice, he didn't win New England the Pacific Coast, or states like Michigan and Illinois.

        But the south is growing in population. We need to cut the margins down there to win. We cannot count on New England, the Great Lakes and the Pacific forever.

        by nrafter530 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:15:50 AM PDT

  •  I second that emotion

    Along with a hat tip to those who have posted here with their enthusiasm and reasoned arguments as to why Obama/whomever will win in November
    It is a comfort, and I can't truly believe that in an open debate Obama could even entice hard core conservatives, even evangelical ones, to at least consider their decisions.

    David/sf

    by dbsf on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:10:28 AM PDT

•  Religious fervor breeds its opposite

  I don't live in the bible belt, but have a brother, niece and nephew who are evangelicals.  I know my bro favors Huckabee, and except for the ultra-religious positions (anti-gay,scientific close-mindedness) I find him likable -- certainly more compassionate than GWB (I was pretty irritated that bro voted for him even in '04).  On that point, I recommend Mike Tabbi's Nov. 2007 story on Huckabee
  http://www.rollingstone.com/...

  But one thing that must be remembered is that there are a host of folks out there, many of my associates, who are knee-jerk anti-religion, or of religious persuasions other than Christian.  That sentiment seems to match the fervor of earnest evangelicals.

  by Miz V on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:51:24 AM PDT

  •  Fundamentalists Breed Atheists

    It's not a slippery slope - fundamentalist kids make the best atheists.

    by bernardpliers on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 11:45:48 AM PDT

•  oh, btw

  my above comment (that Obama wins the GE easily) isn't meant to imply that Clinton wouldn't win.  I think she's better than a 50/50 bet to win it to although I'd guess her margin would be small.

  by JCross on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:52:14 AM PDT

•  Purple States

  Assume the blue states vote blue and the red states vote red .... what does that leave us with? Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin ...and ???

  Is there a realistic chance of a red state flipping? VA?

  McCain outpolls both Obama and Clinton in Ohio. Wisconsin is often considered a blue state, but only in the sense that Florida is red. The elections have been very close and both are really purple.  McCain leads both Clinton and Obama in Wisconsin.

  For all the screaming and shouting here between Obama supporters and Clinton supporters the reality of the electoral map  could still throw a cold bucket of water on us in the fall ....

  by kto9 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:52:31 AM PDT

  •  You're right

    we should be winning this thing in a landslide, we're not, that's a problem. It worries me. How can such a so-called "anti-war" country support McCain and what will happen when he moves to the center on the war issue?

    by nrafter530 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:03:04 AM PDT

  •  Just winning

    what Gore won plus New Hampshire would do it.

    Of course, I also think Obama coudl win Missouri, Virginia, Florida, Ohio and quite possibly other states.

    by JCross on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:16:21 AM PDT

•  I see your point, but

  I have a couple of comments on your diary. I was raised in the Bible Belt (Georgia), so the ridiculous comments about Obama being raised Muslim are not "incomprehensible" to me.

  There are misinformed people in all parts of the country, however. Come to New Jersey (where I live now) and you will meet plenty of people with those same views (there was an outrage when a mosque was built locally, where many similar views about Muslims emerged). There are racists and people with silly opinions everywhere.
  My point is be careful in stereotyping a region of the country as a monolith and imagining the Northeast and West coast as the only home of progressive thought. That's the faulty electoral strategy that lost us the past couple of presidential elections.
  I'm with Howard Dean on the 50-state plan, which I think was validated in 2006.
  Please don't characterize everyone in the South as idiots. Recall the participation in democratic primaries this year in South Carolina, Georgia, and elsewhere. The votes are out there!

  by sjersey on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:52:55 AM PDT

  •  dude

    most folks are moving FROM NJ to Ga...so you're bucking the trend there! BUt you know, lots of people here in NJ have told tme they heard Obama is a Muslim too; and they don't believe me when I tell them he's not ( and then I tell them that wouldn't stop me from voting for him! )anyways South Jersey ain't really NJ; they have their own magazine and I pretty much consider them a different culture. Shore areas excepted....

    by jerseydan on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:03:26 AM PDT

  •  I am a proud Hilbot

    who lives in the Bible belt.I hear this Obama muslim crap all of the time.I try to explain that he is not but these people choose to be ignorant.I want to win on the issues.

    by kayfromsouth on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:10:34 AM PDT

•  not scared

  McCain/Huckabee doesn't scare me. The real bat shit crazy fundy's aren't going to vote for a Dem. no matter who is running.
  As usual the outcome is going to be determined by the indys, and Huck's comments about wanting to Christianise the constitution, and impose a flat tax aren't going to win him any friends there.
  The corporate Repubs don't like him, the loudmouths, like Rush and Coulter who already hate McCain don't like Huck either, so I think a McCain/Huckabee ticket will leave many Republican voters staying home, fine by me.
  If McCain does pick one of his former adversaries it will likely be Romney who can bring instant cash, and some financial credibility. Having Romeny on the ticket may also quiet down the commentariat a bit. Besides after the embarrasing results last night, I'm sure McCain is not feeling too charitable towards the Huckster.

  by fat old man on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:53:22 AM PDT

  •  Let him pick Romney

    That will piss off the fundies no end. Not only will they not vote for him, they won't vote for ANY R, period. They'll ALL be tarred with the same brush. They'll just stay home in droves.

    And while Romney might bring money and financial clout, he brings NO volunteers and NO small money donors.

    There are fewer and fewer people out there who have the $2300 to give... and some of them are giving it to the Ds this time.

    by mmacdDE on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:58:52 AM PDT

    •  doubt it will be either

      I actually doubt he'll pick either of them, but if it was going to be one of the two I think it's more likely to be Mittens.

      by fat old man on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:13:27 AM PDT

•  Crumbs, what drivel

  You talk to two blokes with barmy opinions and suddenly they're indicative of the whole Bible Belt and we're all doomed?  I think not.

  P.S.  Just a tip: the best way to avoid flames is not to write crappy content-free diaries.

  by TruthOfAngels on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:53:40 AM PDT

•  So we lose Tennessee.....

  You provide another useful data point, so I am not attacking your report. We have to look at all the data. It is a mistake to base our decisions on what might be considered a "worst case scenario".

  We know there are a number of bigots, racists, etc, who will never vote for Obama, never vote for Clinton, probably never vote for a Democrat. The question is: how many of these people are there. Quite frankly, if it is a significant number, no Dem is going to win anyhow.

  I think you also have to consider the performance of Obama so far in red states and swing states. I think he has shown that he can, at the very least, hold on the Democratic base and has done very well outside of that base.

  I don't think it is a serious issue.

  by Azdak on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:55:32 AM PDT

•  I don't think there's any credibility

  in any suggestion that people should fear a McCain/Huckabee ticket. There's nothing to back up this suggestion so stop peddling false hope for the Republicans.

  If the Democratic base doesn't fracture, only ticket that will beat an Obama/Webb or a Clinton/Obama ticket is McCain/God/Jesus Christ ticket. Period.

  by The British Observer on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 09:57:24 AM PDT

•  Huckabee on the ticket will move the

  moderate Republicans to vote for the democratic nominee.

  by hester on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:00:30 AM PDT

•  Sorry, I don't "do" fear.

  Case Study Why Not:  2001 to present.

  by Quicklund on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:02:10 AM PDT

•  Huckabee is important ...

  He can bring in theocons to the polling station in swing states. Just like Obama will bring in youth and indies ...

  by nataraj on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:02:27 AM PDT

•  I think you're essentially correct

  Even my own parent-in-laws, here in SF, asked me about Baraks' middle name 'Hussein' with the implied understanding that it was the same as 'that other guy, the bad one' who was deposed in Iraq.

  Honest to God, that was their question. Guilt by vague association, and convinced that he was not an 'American' as in 'different from us'.
  So yes, a McCain/Huckabee ticket is the best winning combination for the Republicans, even among older, conservative lifetime Democrats.
  At least as far as I can observe from Sodom by the Bay

  cheers,
  David/sf

  by dbsf on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:02:39 AM PDT

  •  Huh?

    So to oppose a guy with a strange middle name, the correct choice is a Christian clergyman who turns a lot of people off? Why not just an ordinary white Christian person? Extra-special proof of Christian-ness is needed this time around for some reason?

    by gracchus on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:14:20 AM PDT

    •  I was illustrating the frustrating

      nature of how older, conservative people think.

      I agree with you, the reasoning isn't something that fits us well, but that's the point; some people don't look deeply into their own logic to understand the flaws there, the respond reflexively.

      It's an impenetrable, murky world to most of us liberals, but plenty of people are willing to live like that, unchallenged in their own comforts and isolated from the real world by TV and their own steady diet of similar thinking friends who reinforce their beliefs.

      The world according to my in-laws is an interesting one indeed; one with it's own physical laws, it's own set of good guys and bad guys, unshaded by original ideas or doubt.
      To them even an evangelical who speaks in their terms of how the world is, is preferable to even listening to someone who describes how the world could be.
      They and a great many older conservatives are past the age of involvement, past the age of change. That's all I'm pointing out.

      by dbsf on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:22:54 AM PDT

    •  Replies like this are so needless. The commente

      was not speaking for him/herself, so addressing him/her with your outrage is pointless.  

      S/he was describing a different demographic.  And, like gravity, that demographic exists whether you rant and rail at it, or not.  

      by mrogers2007 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 04:05:58 PM PDT

•  There is some truth to what you say.....

  ....it is AMAZING how quickly Republicans get their lies out there. I, too, have heard the "muslim" thing (as if it were damning, anyway). This is out there. But remember, we are fighting for independents, not complete nut jobs. Huckabee will never be on top of the ticket with McCain, although he might be an excellent bottom to this 71 year old man. : )

  I heard both Obama and Clinton speak last night. They were both on fire.

  Fear this: Clinton/Obama.

  by Bensdad on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:06:38 AM PDT

•  I live in Tennessee

  so talking to people here is a daily experience for me, not just an odd visit. First of all, I don't think a Dem is going to win this state - which is one of the reddest of the red. If any Dem has an opportunity, it's going to be Obama - and for three reasons.

  1. He appeals to moderate swing voters

  2. People here absolutely HATE Hillary.

  3. Obama has more of an appeal to many borderline religious voters - if they aren't mischaracterizing him as a Muslim, then many can relate to his church going, progressive but faith-based principles.

  Remember, this is the "Harold, call me" state and God knows what they'll come up with in time for the general. This is also a state that has Fox News on every public TV (in waiting rooms, stores, restaurants, hotels) - it's endemic.

  by ccr4nine on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:08:45 AM PDT

  •  People here do not

    hate Hillary.Some do but it is not nearly as widespread as you say.A lot of people tell me that they used to dislike her but have changed their mind.

    by kayfromsouth on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:13:29 AM PDT

  •  Reality-based response

    Clinton won Tennessee by a lot!

    by Rich in PA on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:20:20 AM PDT

  •  TN went for Clinton in 1992 & Carter in 1976

    So, every time in the last half a century that a Democrat was elected President, Tennessee has a hand in that result.  

    Read your history/stats, please.

    by mrogers2007 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 04:07:10 PM PDT

•  McCain Embraces Rove

  Enough said.

  by madame defarge on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:13:39 AM PDT

•  Conservative fundamentalists are fascists

  No matter how prettily they promise to take care of the old and the young fascists always kill, that's their reason to be and fundamentalist Christians are fascists. Huckabee's target is ME Muslims but he would make respectable people who might gain office and start killing domesticaly too.  Fascists are not cute and huggable - no matter how they dress themselves up and act cuddly.

  by SmithsLastWord on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:17:22 AM PDT

  •  Don't underestimate

    the number of Americans who unknowingly adhere to fascism...happily.

    by nrafter530 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:28:58 AM PDT

•  You'd have a point...

  ...if the majority of the electorate were core GOP voters.

  It's not.

  Barring Act of God, the GOP's going down this year.

  by Jonathan on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:18:07 AM PDT

•  Nah, don't be afraid.

  McCain is toast, pure and simple.  His minders can fill him up with fine-sounding domestic-policy ideas, but he can't and won't speak the words because he just doesn't care about them.  He is, even more than Giuliani, sole a national-security candidate.  But he can't get that vote because of his immigration stance--in the Republican party of today, no good deed goes unpunished!

  Huckabee might help in some states, but those states are red and reddish purple anyway--he could, for instance, stop Kansas from going for a Democrat, but in a state like Colorado or Ohio he would keep non-evangelical Republicans home, especially given McCain's age and the actuarial possibility that his VP would become president.

  by Rich in PA on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:19:49 AM PDT

•  Your example

  Of scared white men in corner stores all over rural America certainly rings true for me.  I'm from farm-country Ohio and I can say without reservation that I grew up around some of the most racist/sexist people on the planet.

  That said, Ohio is turning blue more and more everyday...after a damaging, red lapse of judgment.  I believe the thing you have to remember is that most people, whatever their color, will eventually come around and vote for whoever will bring back their livelihood.  It's Maslow, and it's obviously not on the docket of Republican agenda to do it.

  That leaves a black man and a white woman as their choice, and for anyone who is deciding between heat, meds and bread this winter the choice should be clear.  If they still vote Republican, then they get what they deserve.

  The sooner we realize that some people are just fucking blockheads in this electorate and write them off, the sooner we can find a remedy for the rest of us.

  I say nominate a black man or a white woman and flaunt it.  If we do so, then 20 years from now the sting will be gone...the race or gender card will have little effect upon how the game is played by then.  The media will have to find a new boogeyman.  My hope, I suppose.

  And if people still want to say Obama is a closet Muslim or Hillary is a closet lesbian, so fucking what.  You're not going to change their mind.

  So let's nominate them with pride and plaster signs all over the place.  Yeah, we fucking nominated this person, we're going to kick your ass and there's nothing you can do about it.  We tried it your way, and your way blows.

  When you reveal the glass jaw of a bully you can see how fast they back down.  Sure, things are different now than when old white men were younger.  But, if you think about it...inspirational and historical figures like the Kennedys, MLK and Kent State kids were being gunned down because of the change they desired.  Were their good ol' days really so great?

  If anything, I would say if we get a female or a black president then the fear of such men would finally be realized...how poetic that it happen when they are too old and feeble to do anything about it.

  I'm a white 30-something male who is so disgustedly over all the race and gender-baiting in the Year of our Lord 2008 and I approve this message.

  by tastyframe on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:22:38 AM PDT

  •  :)

    by mrogers2007 on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 04:08:58 PM PDT

•  McCain is a rotten candidate

  who will prove how lousy he is by late summer. The conservative wing hates the guy. The only thing we have to fear is not having a nominee by April.

  by Batfish on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:26:04 AM PDT

•  yeah, but look at swing states

  Tennessee doesn't really qualify any more.  Look at the turnout differential in MO and Iowa for dems versus repubs.  I like either Obama or Clinton's chances at those two states versus McCain/Huckabee (no way will it be Huckabee/McCain, the delegate math is not there).  Sure, Obama doesn't have much chance at red states, neither does Clinton.  But purple states are a different story.  One can argue whether Obama or Clinton has a better chance, but I highly doubt he people who won't vote for Obama, saying he was raised a Muslim are gonna vote Hillary over Mccain.  They may say maybe she's Ok, but they won't vote for her.

  The one swing state where I really worry about McCain is where I live - Florida.  But I gotta say, I personally know a number of repubs here who will not vote for Hillary under any circumstances but are leaning Obama over McCain.  That's not to say Hillary doesn't have advantages of her own, as the primary results showed, but I don't know how many moderate voters would vote for Hillary in the general but not Obama.

  I do worry about a McCain ticket - we all should, regardless of our nominee.  But my worry is not people who display the kind of ignorance you mention because I don't think they'll vote dem anyway.  I worry about moderates, for whom McCain is still the maverick character of 2000 that many of on the left had some admiration for.

  by eparrot on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:47:27 AM PDT

•  McCain/Huckabee is the scariest thing

  I can imagine.

  Those people steal elections.

  by Village expects idiot home soon on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 10:57:45 AM PDT

•  never lived in the bible belt

  but I've visited it. Never was I so glad to get back to Wisconsin (ie: sanity). If what you were told is any indication, right wingers will be pounding the "Obama/Osama" connection into the ground if Obama wins the nomination.  Personally I think Obama (and Hillary too) are worth ten of McCain and Huckabee (each).

  by Pan Zareta on Sun Feb 10, 2008 at 12:04:22 PM PDT