November Swing Voters: Advantage Hillary
Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 01:52:24 PM PDT
After the Florida primary I wrote a diary in which I looked at how the vote broke down along demographic groups – specifically among traditional "swing" voters in that primary – http://www.dailykos.com/...
We are now many primaries and caucuses ahead, and I wanted to look again at where swing voters are in terms of partisan preference – this time looking at all the states which have voted so far and for which exit polls are available – http://www.cnn.com/...
The MSM is constantly feeding us the theme that Obama would somehow be more "electable" in the general election because he overwhelmingly attracts independent voters, and if Hillary is the nominee, then McCain will get the bulk of the independents.
There are two things wrong with the above proposition – 1) Even though Obama is attracting more independents, Hillary is not doing bad either; for one thing, she is attracting more independents than McCain .... but more importantly - 2) Independents are only one subset of traditional swing voters, the other subsets being Hispanics, white Catholics, white women and suburban voters. Among the last four subsets above, Hillary is comfortably beating Obama (as well as McCain).
When looking at exit polls from the 2004 general election, five swing voter groups jump out:
http://www.cnn.com/...
Independents: Bush 48% - Kerry 49%
Hispanics: Bush 44% - Kerry 53%
Catholics: Bush 52% - Kerry 47% (no numbers are provided for "white Catholics" but they voted even more lopsidedly in favor of Bush as the total number of "Catholics" here includes Hispanics)
White Women: Bush 55% - Kerry 44%
Suburban Voters: Bush 52% - Kerry 47%
From the above 2004 numbers it’s interesting to note that Kerry actually beat Bush among independents (as well as Hispanics). However, Bush comfortably beat Kerry among Catholics, white women and suburban voters. Thus, it can be logically argued that Catholics, white women, suburban voters and Hispanics are as important as independent voters (if not more so) in order to guarantee Democratic success in November.
Looking at available exit polls from all the states which have voted so far (exit polls are available for roughly 90% of the primary/caucus vote), we can see how swing voters are performing (since Obama was not on the ballot in Michigan, I have excluded the results from that state). I have included the estimated raw numbers among the various demographic groups based on actual state result numbers combined with exit poll numbers. I am including only the two remaining Democrats and the remaining viable Republican.
It should be noted that in all of the states I looked at, self-identified independents were included in both the Democratic and Republican primary numbers, even though some states/state parties officially limited their voters only to partisans.
Among Independents:
Obama 1,761,000
Hillary 1,253,000
McCain 1,012,000
First, it should be noted that Hillary seems to be attracting more independents than McCain. Second, even though Obama is still doing best among independent voters, Hillary has attracted 71% of the number Obama has attracted (1,253,000 ÷ 1,761,000).
Among Hispanics: :
Hillary 1,407,000
Obama 765,000
McCain 271,000
The numbers here clearly favor the Democrats, and Hillary in particular. Obama is performing much better than McCain among Hispanics. However, he is attracting only 54% of the number that voted for Hillary.
Among White Catholics: :
Hillary 1,721,000
McCain 1,050,000
Obama 944,000
What’s interesting here is that McCain has apparently attracted more white Catholics than Obama. Obama is getting only about 55% of the number of white Catholics who are voting for Hillary.
Among White Women: :
Hillary 3,741,000
Obama 2,143,000
McCain N/A
Most of the Republican exit polls did not include numbers for white women, but based on several earlier polls, Democrats were handily beating Republicans in this category. As you can see, among Democrats Obama is attracting only about 57% of the number Hillary is attracting among this group.
Among Suburban Voters: :
Hillary 4,305,000
Obama 3,779,000
McCain 2,737,000
Here, the numbers between Hillary and Obama are closest, though Hillary still wins.
Looking at all these numbers at one glance, it can be seen that Hillary is arguably better positioned for the general election. Among suburban voters, the two Democrats are close, with Hillary having an edge. Among independents, it’s advantage Obama, with Hillary performing at 71% of Obama’s performance level here. But among Hispanics, white women and white Catholics, it’s advantage Hillary, with Obama performing at only 54-57% of Hillary’s performance level. Overall, I’d say advantage Hillary among the crucial swing voters we will need to win in November.
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