Clinton is Hoping for Texas and Ohio
Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 07:57:41 AM PDT
Today is the Potomac Primaries. I am listening to Senator Evan Bayh, stating, "This is an election, not an auction." Sounds familiar?
This is about money. Or lack of it for The Clinton Campaign.
The irony of this is that it was Hillary Clinton who threw the anvil down, trying to scare competitors away, by stating she plans to raise 100M just for the primaries.
Now the tune is different, especially since we all know that the money has evaporated, don't know where it is at, has been wasted, half a million dollars spent on parking alone, and her campaign's lack luster of campaigning in the states this past weekend and moving forward shows, and she is trying to hold her superdelegates and fundraisers together.
I don't know what will happen tonight in the DC area. Polls, pundits say a win for Obama or a blowout. My thing is this, if Obama wins are these contests tonight going to be dismissed by Clinton, as she has been dismissing all the Obama wins, thus far?
I don't think so. You can't continue to lose contests without questions lingering, nor can you continue to lose momentum while asking your supporters to wait for March 4th. But that is exactly what the Clinton Campaign is doing.
Mrs. Clinton held a buck-up-the-troops conference call on Monday with donors, superdelegates and other supporters; several said afterward that she had sounded tired and a little down, but determined about Ohio and Texas.
There have been diaries about Clinton being told that Texas and Ohio are must wins. But what does that mean? Must win?
"She has to win both Ohio and Texas comfortably, or she’s out," said one superdelegate who has endorsed Mrs. Clinton, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to share a candid assessment. "The campaign is starting to come to terms with that." Campaign advisers, also speaking privately in order to speak plainly, confirmed this view.
It means she must beat Obama by 6-10 points to regain the trust, confidence of TPTB, i.e. the democratic establishment. How can this be? Look, we all know that a number was given to Obama and Clinton to win this delegate race. How? Look at the structure of both campaigns up to February 5th, Super Tuesday. Obama was confident that he would get a draw with Clinton to move onward to the other contests. Clinton hedges the family farm on February 5th and failed the TKO to Obama. He is still standing, she is greatly bruised.
Make no mistakes, the democratic establishment does not want this going onward to April, May, and June. They want a candidate to rally around and get ready for the fall fight. There will be no brokered convention, no way. That is why March 4th is it.
The democratic establishment is looking at the map of wins, how it was won, the money raised, and who is best to not only BEAT McCain, but who has coattails and can win new congressional and senate seats.
Is Clinton done? No, but in reality can you continue to dismiss wins? Can you continue to explain away loss? Can you continue to lose momentum? And can you continue to not raise the money needed to compete in Texas and Ohio?
Texas cost over 1M a week to run ads. This means you need to raise over 1M a day. It means you need the money now.
GOTV cost money. As Clinton has seen, organization is key to getting out the vote. Obama is sending over 2,000 boots on the ground for Ohio, not including the thousands volunteers mobilized. This is also the same for Texas. Again, all this cost money.
Money, again.
Some donors also expressed concern about a widening money imbalance between Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton: Obama fund-raisers say he is taking in roughly $1 million a day, while Clinton fund-raisers say she is taking in about half of that, mostly online. Mrs. Clinton’s aides say that the campaign was virtually broke as of the Feb. 5 primaries, but that finances have stabilized.
Have the finances stabilized? Well, we can guess here. Her debt was over 5M closing Q4. She had to loan her campaign 5M to survive through Super Tuesday. She spent too much money in Iowa, which damn near broke her, and she is running a scaled back campaign up until March 4th.
In politics, money follows the winner or the one with the momentum. For Clinton to compete she needs about 25-30M just for Texas and Ohio to mount a massive campaign. I don't see it in the numbers.
While trying to convince voters she is the one who is best against McCain, she is worried about Florida and Michigan. She desperately needs these delegates, but as Howard Dean is implying, it won't happen. Do you think she will get these delegates? I don't think so.
Yet some Clinton donors and superdelegates worry that the focus on Mr. McCain is premature, and that other strategic decisions by the campaign — like counting on Michigan and Florida delegates to be seated at the convention even though their status is in limbo — show faulty thinking that suggests the Clinton campaign does not have a short-term game plan against Mr. Obama.
"They are looking way too much at Florida, Michigan and McCain, because all three won’t matter if she doesn’t blow Obama away in Texas and Ohio," said a Democrat who is both a Clinton superdelegate and major donor, and who spoke on condition of anonymity to offer a candid assessment of campaign strategy. "Obama has momentum that has to be stopped by March 4."
Again folks, she does not just have to beat Obama by a couple of points, she must blow him away, it could happen. Politics is anything can happen, but if you continue to lose contests, the public start looking at the candidate that the TV is talking about. That is the problem.
Next week is Wisconsin and Hawaii. Every vote count, work like we are 20 points down, hit the phones, canvass, volunteer, but more importantly participate in the OBAMA MONEY BOMB for today. Donate here, and don't forget the .01 tip.
OK, let's talk.
