Clinton's Perilous Path to a Pledged Delegate Lead
Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 01:32:36 PM PDT
In the race for the Democratic nomination, there are three sets of delegates one should consider: pledged delegates, superdelegates, and disputed delegates (which includes those from Florida and Michigan). Here, I take a look at the pledged and unassigned delegates and show how they highlight the significance of the large wins being predicted for Barack Obama today.
The bottom line is this: after tonight, Clinton will be at a point in the campaign where she will have to make up significant ground, or else make incredibly destructive moves to obtain the nomination. Contrast this to Obama, who should be at a point in his campaign where all he has to do is split the remaining delegates to ensure a unified nomination without controversy.
According to Real Clear Politics, at the time I write this Obama has 1004 pledged delegates compared to Clinton's 925 (follow the link for a state-by-state breakdown of the tally). In addition to this, there are 48 unassigned delegates in states that have already held primaries or caucuses but have not yet finished assigning delegates, 26 delegates elected in support of John Edwards, and 331 potential delegates from Michigan and Florida. 47 of the 48 unassigned delegates originate from two states (Colorado and Washington) where Obama earned over twice as many votes as Clinton. Its likely that Obama will increase his delegate lead as these delegates are assigned. To make a rough estimate, let's guess that Obama gets 35 of these delegates, and Clinton gets 13. This would bring our pledged delegate totals to 1039 for Obama and 938 for Clinton, a triple-digit lead for Obama.
Now, as for the Florida and Michigan delegates... the DNC's Credentials Committee will decide their fate, assuming the campaign lasts long enough for these states to matter. If you take a look at that link, you'll find the committee is composed of 186 people. 161 of them will be assigned in accordance with pledged delegate proportions and the other 25 (listed here) were already nominated by Howard Dean and approved by the DNC. If Obama carries 50% of the remaining delegates, he'll end up with ~52% of the assigned committee members, or ~83 people. This means Clinton would have to convince 16 of the 25 committee members assigned by Dean to support seating of the Michigan and Florida delegates.
Let's assume she does that, and those delegates are seated. According to estimates by The Green Papers, Clinton would win 111 delegates, Obama would win 69, and Edwards would win 13. If we include these in the pledged delegate totals, we would have 1078 for Obama and 1049 for Clinton. As for Michigan, Clinton won 55% of the popular vote and "Uncommitted" won 40% of the popular vote. The exit polls suggest 78% of the "Uncommitted" voters would have chosen Obama if he were on the ballot. This represents 31% of the total vote (70% of the 40% who voted "Uncommitted"). Thus, a good first-order approximation is that Clinton would get 55% of Michigan's 128 delegates (~70) and Obama would get 31% of Michigan's delegates (~40), with the remaining delegates going to Edwards. This would bring our delegate totals to 1118 for Obama and 1119 for Clinton. This would finally put her over the top.
HOWEVER, that does not include today's results. Obama is certain to pick up delegates today. If we are to believe recent polls, Obama should cruise to 3 more victories with a lead in the popular votes in the vicinity of 20 points. If we assume delegates are assigned proportionally to the poll data (I used Survey USA where available) use the projections from Constituent Dynamics (pdf warning) that were posted by Kos as I wrote this, Obama would win ~106 100 delegates and Clinton would win ~62 68 delegates. This would give us the following totals for elections held to date: 1226 1232 for Obama and 1179 1187 for Clinton. (The upcoming primaries in Hawaii and Wisconsin may increase this lead even further.)
Now you Edwards supporters may have been totaling his delegates under this scenario. He has 26 to date, and would gain another 24 if Michigan and Florida are seated and the Uncommitted Michigan delegates vote according to exit polls. This it a total of 50 delegates, and Clinton would need almost every single one to overcome Obama's delegate lead at this point.
What does all of this mean? Well, after tonight, Obama will have a commanding lead in pledged delegates. In order to overcome this lead, Clinton has two options:
1.) Dominate the rest of the primaries the same way Obama has been dominating the last 8 contests
2.) Convince 2/3rds of the 25 delegates appointed to the DNC's Credentials Committee to overrule the sentiments of the 181 delegates appointed based on election results, getting the Florida and Michigan delegates to be seated according to the results of the previous primaries, convince Edwards AND all his pledged delegates to back her campaign.
In my opinion, 2.) is simply politically untenable, especially because even after all that political maneuvering, Clinton would only have a lead of 3 17 in pledged delegates. Thus, if Obama pads his lead by more than 3 17 in the remaining primaries, she'd STILL be behind in pledged delegates even after all the strong-arming of Michigan and Florida into the convention, and will have to rely on superdelegates after all this. This situation would be nothing short of a disaster, as the party would be split and this would reinforce the (sometimes unfairly assigned) preconceptions of the Clinton camp being tied to dirty political tricks. The party be deflated in support of its nominee, their presidential candidate's worst story line would be accentuated, and legal battles may drag things out even further.
Realistically, Hillary has only one option left: dominate the rest of the contests. Its that simple. Obama's pledged delegate lead has increased to the point where the previous primaries in Michigan and Florida and Edwards' pledged delegates are becoming meaningless. I say this not because votes in Michigan, in Florida or for Edwards don't matter, nor do I say this because the primaries in Michigan and Florida broke DNC rules. I say this because at this point in the race, the only scenario under which Michigan, Florida, and Edwards delegates make a difference would necessarily involve political and legal wrangling that would destroy the only candidate these delegates could potentially assist.
UPDATED: According to the projection KOS posted as I wrote this diary, Obama is projected to win tonight's primaries by a total delegate count of 100-68. This would give Clinton 6 more delegates, and Obama 6 less than I projected above. I've changed the numbers accordingly, but this doesn't change the main conclusions... Hillary needs to kick-ass in the remaining contests to have any shot at the nomination.
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