Obama Surge Under Way in Ohio

Since September 2007, when Barack Obama was a speck in Hillary Clinton's rearview mirror at 29 points down (44-15), Obama has gained a total of 12 points on Clinton to be down 17 points per today's SUSA poll.  Obama is now clearly visible in Clilnton's rearview mirror.  And, given the fact that the Obama just set up shop in Ohio about 10 days ago, that he just ran his first television ad in Ohio yesterday, that he has yet to hold one rally or campaign event or make one speech in Ohio, Clinton may want to note that objects in her rearview mirror are closer than they appear.

Here are the poll numbers from Ohio over the past half year.  Most of Obama's jump occurred in the February polling event by SUSA, where Obama broke through the 20 point barrier for the first time:

February: HC up 17 points (56-39) - SUSA w/o JE
January: HC up 23 points (42-19) - Columbus Dispatch w/ JE
December: HC up 26 points (45-19) - Quinnipiac w/ JE
November: HC up 25 points (42-17) - Quinnipiac w/ JE
October: HC up 28 points (47-19) - Quinnipiac w/ JE
September: HC up 29 points (44-15) - Quinnipiac w/ JE

Obama's recent bite into Clinton's lead makes sense, given his surge in most state's across the country.  It's the first sign that the Obama surge is under way in Ohio, and this basically without Obama touching Ohio in any tangible manner so far.  He just started running tv and radio commercials today, his campaign is just getting set up in Ohio and hasn't started any voter calls yet or had any campaign events yet, and most importantly, he hasn't had any rallies or made any speeches in Ohio yet.  

There are three full weeks from today until the Ohio primary for Obama to make speeches, to hold huge headline-grabbing rallies, to rally all of the young college-aged voters at the many Ohio colleges and universities, and to have one last debate in Ohio.  

The CW says that Clinton needs to win "comfortably" which would not be too much less than the 17-point lead which she now holds.  Unfortunately for Clinton, simply looking at how Obama has closed large gaps in other states, and noting for the first time in Ohio that the surge is now under way without Obama lifting a finger yet, the rearview mirror in Clinton's SUV will no longer hold Obama, as the Obama sporty hybrid will have shot past her on its way to the White House.  Beep Beep!

•  Still a big gap to close

  I wouldn't call it a surge yet. The polling has been so infrequent that it's hard to gage movement. The previous poll before this one was taken before Iowa...I'd expect him to be doing better now.

  by democrattotheend on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:19:45 PM PDT

  •  They undersampled

    independents by a large margin. I think he is doing much better...

    SUSA got MO really wrong too.

    by A2 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:27:56 PM PDT

•  Work like we're 20 points down.

  Because we are!!

  Plus, don't forget how many GOPers might vote for HRC. I'm sure she'll proudly accept any support...

  by jkennerl on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:20:28 PM PDT

  •  Clintonistas - we are 20 points down

    at least today -- so it shouldn't be that hard for us to work hard for her nomination!

    by ActivatedbyBush on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:23:41 PM PDT

•  everything is on his side,

  clinton on the other hand has all the voters she will ever have.    If he tries hard enough he can close to the gap to 1 or 2 points in my estimation.   No early bird voting like california... and 3 full weeks to get his message out (compared to 1 week in california.)

  I'm predicting an Obama win in Ohio & TX.

  by soros on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:22:14 PM PDT

•  Does your last comment imply

  that Clinton's energy policy is less conservationist than that of Obama?  I don't think facts support you.

  Did you  buy into the media manufactured "Obama=Apple, Clinton=PC" storyline?

  by ActivatedbyBush on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:22:56 PM PDT

  •  actually

    Hillary's plan does seem overly generous to auto manufacturers.  $90 billion over ten years for financial assistance and to develop the technologies is pretty silly.  Doesn't it strike you as similar to the Republican refrain that we don't yet have technologies.

    I'm more in line with Richardson who advocated very convincingly in his book Leading by Example, that we have the technology and we need to spend time and effort in implementing those technologies.

    by truegreencore on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:27:25 PM PDT

•  Using the word "SURGE" to discuss this

  is like enjoying the open wound of our political discourse in this country.  Stop it, please.

  by funluvn1 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:23:08 PM PDT

  •  I respectfully disagree...

    as in nearly every state primary/caucus we've held in our country to date, Obama has demonstrated a substantial surge to close on or pass Clinton, oftentimes by a significant volume of voters.  What I suggested is based on the data.  He's shown a recent indication in the SUSA poll that a surge is starting in Ohio...which is the title of my diary.  And given his nearly complete lack of campaigning here in my home state of Ohio, all data would point toward a significant Obama movement over the next few weeks.  

    Your statement that I enjoy opening the wound of our political discourse is offensive and obviously not true.  

    by Public Servant on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:29:19 PM PDT

    •  I respectfully wonder what you were thinking when

      you decided to disagree.

      I give not one care about your Obama or your Clinton.

      I only care about the word "surge".

      Stop using it.  

      Get it?  Please do.

      by funluvn1 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:45:55 PM PDT

      •  No point missed, no missed thinking...

        and as for what I say or do, I've taken your comment under consideration and have decided to disregard it, as I am OBVIOUSLY not using the word SURGE in the manner in which you speak, or referencing the surge in Iraq.  You actually did that by bringing up the issue.  If I had used it in an offensive manner or context, I would have considered a change.  

        On a side note, you'd be well served to ask or suggest such a change, as opposed to coming out of the gate with a demand to stop and an insult.    

        by Public Servant on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:03:34 PM PDT

    •  You missed the point

      It was about the use of the word "surge". Its a painful word because of Bush. The comment didn't have anything to do with the actual diary, just the use of bush-speak.

      by discocarp on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:51:29 PM PDT

•  He better start going there.

  Ads aren't enough.  He does well in states he shows up in.

  If he wants to close this thing, he better start paying attention to Ohio and Pennsylvania.  The large cities and high minority populations provide an opportunity he can't miss.

  by truegreencore on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:24:59 PM PDT

•  Please Don't Use The Word "Surge"

  It's taken.  It now has "Mission Accomplished"-type ramifications.

  by bincbom on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:25:01 PM PDT

  •  Well, Obama is the "insurgent" candidate

    so, you know, we already have a lot of "war terminology" in relation to elections.

    by beachmom on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:28:57 PM PDT

•  the problem for HRC is that

  she absolutely MUST win BOTH texas and ohio....

  he can throw everything he has with money., momentum, surrogates, more polls showing him beating mcCain
  and all of a sudden he takes one of the two and its OVER......

  just like that....

  it will happen.

  by maxnyc on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:26:02 PM PDT

•  I grew up in Ohio

  and it is a real blue collar state. A lot of your sterotypical meat and potato type guys.

  But...

  I never encountered a lot of racism, so I don't think Obama has to worry about losing too many votes because he's black.

  They hate NAFTA there -- and the Clintons got it through.

  Surprisingly, people are pro-environment in Ohio. It may have something to do with being on a great lake, but when I was a environmental community organizer in conservative Columbus suburbs, I was surprised by how many people supported the cause.

  There is a boatload (!) of universities in Ohio. Just tons of small, liberal arts colleges, not to mention one of the biggest universities in the country, Ohio State.

  I don't think Obama will win here, but I think it's going to be a lot closer than 17 points once the campaign gets going.

  by Slatersan on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:26:24 PM PDT

  •  good to hear this because i was thinking we had

    a better shot in texas...

    the college thing is big--oberlin, et al.

    by maxnyc on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:29:54 PM PDT

    •  Oberlin is a great college, but it's tiny.

      But Ohio does have a lot of big colleges, too.

      I've always thought that Texas would be a much tougher nut to crack than Ohio.  Obama actually leads in the "money primary" in Ohio, and that's been a pretty good (albeit not perfect) predicter of the final results.  Clinton, on the other hand, has a big lead in the Texas "money primary."

      by leevank on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:40:03 PM PDT

  •  i/m hearing NAFTA

    will be the centerpiece of Obama's Ohio campaign.

    by nevadadem on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:30:26 PM PDT

    •  thats brilliant.....if you've noticed

      obama has not only succeeded in beating hillary so far
      but clintonism in general..so NAFTA is part of that

      by maxnyc on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:32:19 PM PDT

      •  NAFTA

        Indeed is a part of that, but I'm concerned about the Hispanic vote which usually goes heavily in favor of Sen. Clinton. It's my understanding that Ohio has a very large Hispanic population and I don't think they care as much about NAFTA as the blue collar workers there do.  However, if Obama can swing the blue collar worker for him using the NAFTA argument and then pull in the younger college educated voters along with getting the AA voters to actually turn out and vote for him I think he could offset some of the Hispanic vote that Sen. Clinton will get.  

        by nabwilson on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:51:49 PM PDT

        •  NAFTA is destroying Mexico

          It's not even the same country it was six or seven years ago.  Latinos with family and cultural ties to Mexico will respond to an anti-NAFTA message (unless their ties are to the tiny upper class).  Many mourn what's happening to Mexico lindo.

          by bythesea on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 01:20:22 AM PDT

    •  Indeed brilliant n/t

      by Rob83 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:34:06 PM PDT

    •  aren't his trade votes the same as Hillary's?

      by nycstray on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:38:06 PM PDT

      •  yeah

        too bad Obama supported the Peru FTA. extremely disappointing. paging John Edwards...

        wanna know why Sherrod Brown and Feingold haven't endorsed yet? trade! and obama hasn't distinguished himself from Hillary on this vital issue.

        by ihlin on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:44:45 PM PDT

    •  Care to mention

      where you're hearing this? ;)

      by Sagebrush Bob on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:44:37 PM PDT

    •  If HC is going to take credit for Bill's economy,

      she also has to take credit for Bill's NAFTA passage in 1994 too, and all the jobs that it has cost America, particularly here in Ohio.  We're top 5 in bankruptcies, foreclosures, jobs lost, and population decline, amongst other undesirable categories.

      by Public Servant on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:06:09 PM PDT

  •  I'd Really Like

    I'd really like to know where you "didn't experience this racism" because growing up on the eastside of Cleveland as an African-American, I can tell you that there was nothing covert about the racism I experienced growing up.  It was real, it hurt and it's still ingrained in the culture.  From the ignorance of an Italian friend who can't vote for Obama because his middle name is "Hussein" to the blue collar types who used to blame blacks for taking precious automotive jobs but now they direct the vitriol toward the "foreigners."  It's alive and well and live in Ohio and truth is, you don't really have to look for it.

    by EntrWriter on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:34:05 PM PDT

•  I point per day

  I think it is fair to make up the difference over a couple of weeks.

  O will be fine.  Once he gets on the ground there, good things will happen.

  A couple of wins between now and then certainly will not hurt either.

  by egarratt on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:27:31 PM PDT

•  Nice spin

  In a two person race, the losing candidate will be able to get into the high 30s or low 40s.  Obama is not going to win Ohio and it won't be a close race.

  by khyber900 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:30:22 PM PDT

  •  just like she

    won Maine, right?

    by pacified on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:32:03 PM PDT

  •  Anything less than a 15 point

    victory for Clinton wil be a huge defeat. A primary in a primarily blue-collar state? I'm surprised Obama is even within sight of her.

    by Desroko on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:33:54 PM PDT

  •  Obama doesn't have to win Ohio (or PA)

    He can lose Ohio and Pennsylvania and still get the nomination.  He's up and predicted to do well in every other state from now through the end.  As long as he comes in with better than 40% of the vote in OH and PA, it will be fine because he'll still walk away with a substantial number of delegates from those states and he'll keep winning big states like TX and NC and such.  A 40% to 47% showing in OH and PA for Obama would be fine.  

    by orleansd on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:34:08 PM PDT

•  love the rearview comment...

  great diary...

  by EducationforAll on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:32:21 PM PDT

•  Obama will lose PA, TX and OH...

  He needs to cut his loss margins to within 10% in each state, and continue winning as usual in every other state.  When all is said and done he needs to have more delegates, states and popular votes to eliminate any spin that will come out of the Clinton campaign.

  I'm doing my part in PA.  Are you?

  by Footbag on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:33:15 PM PDT

•  If Obama can close the gap

  the way he has been between the last two polls, he could not only keep Ohio close but WIN it outright.

  CALL MARYLAND NOW!
  http://my.barackobama.com/...

  by jkfp2004 on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:33:27 PM PDT

•  Clearly she should start lowering expections

  In Ohio.

  by B P Pgh on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:34:08 PM PDT

  •  i think we need to win one of the big remaining

    three--either texas, ohio, or pa...

    we need it not only to put the race away delegate wise
    but also as a talking point!  just one of the three is all we need

    by maxnyc on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:35:57 PM PDT

•  I'm not going to pay attention to polls

  until one week before March 4.

  We have tonight's results and Wisconsin and Hawaii coming up.

  Let's see where it stands after Obama has held some rallies and campaigned in Ohio.

  People have been saying he will take Ohio but lose Texas, but I think he has a better chance in Texas, actually. I'm from Arkansas, and Texas doesn't really feel like Hillary country to me.

  by Oothoon on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:34:59 PM PDT

  •  is that cuz u think texas men will vote big for

    senator obama in texas?

    by maxnyc on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:36:57 PM PDT

  •  I think both could be close with BO=TX, HC=OH

    I actually think HC and BO will basically tie in Texas and Ohio.  

    by Public Servant on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:44:35 PM PDT

•  Where is the momentum?

  The poll numbers don't show much change one way or the other.

  What they really show is that Obama got 10 Edwards (or other) voters for every 7 that went to Hillary.

  Edwards isn't likely to drop out of the race again, and 56+39 = 95, meaning only 5% not already leaning to one of them.

  Hard to say those numbers tell us anything about what's to come except for this: Obama starts out 17 points in the whole, so he's got to work that much better or harder over the next three weeks.

  by dinotrac on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:36:58 PM PDT

•  If HC wins the nom, I'll do all I can to help her

  just wanted to make sure folks didn't see this as some sort of "hit" diary, and wanted all to know that while I'm an Obama backer, I'll do every thing I can to get Clinton elected if she edges out Obama for the nomination.  

  Can't wait until after the nomination and it's WE again on kos...

  by Public Servant on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:37:01 PM PDT

  •  Here, here!

    The animus toward either candidate may be on display by partisans here and now, but I, for one, will do all I can to ensure a Democratic White House.  I am supremely confident that the vast majority of others here will do the same.  Fall in love in the primary.  Fall in line in the general!

    by Thaddaeus Toad on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:51:47 PM PDT

•  A "little" rally of his at Quicken Loans Arena

  will knock a few more points off that gap as well.

  by darthstar on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:37:33 PM PDT

•  round on both ends and high in the middle

  The one thing that Obama can do is... If he can manage to win Ohio, he can lock up the nomination.  If he somehow manages to win even by a few % points, it's over for HRC.  That's his challenge.  He can put this nomination process to bed in Ohio, the same state that we absolutely need to win and can win in November against McPain.  

  Look for Obama to start to schedule events at Ohio State, U of Cincy, Case Western, etc.  Lots of universities in Ohio with active student populations that are probably not that pumped up over HRC.  The unions and traditional Dems in Ohio will vote for her.  But if Obama can play to the 18-25 year old vote he can really stand a chance at winning there.

  by orleansd on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:38:29 PM PDT

•  Tips for a poor American down on his luck?

  and for Bugs Bunny references...

  by Public Servant on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:41:56 PM PDT

•  Ohio Is Reeling

  The level of voter dissatisfaction in Ohio is profound.  If you're not working in a war factory, you're not working, or otherwise you're busy supersizing people's fries.  There is a lot of hopelessness afoot in the land, and thus, primed to hear Obama message of hope and real change.

  If Obama takes Ohio, Hillary should start lobbying for a cabinet job.  I think the US Forest Service could use Billary's experience and wisdom, where there is war on against the Asian Lady Beetle infestation.

  by Neocynic on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:52:03 PM PDT

•  Already Voted - 51% HC - 47% BO

  From the SUSA poll.  That would be great for Obama if it held, but I fear that it wont.

  by Footbag on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:54:10 PM PDT

•  african american activism in ohio

  I was an election protection laywer-volunteer in Columbus in November, 04.  Black churches were very much in the foreground of that effort.  They were active, organized and tireless.  They'll be a valuable asset to Obama.

  And the notion that "If you liked NAFTA, you'll love Hilary" will resonate in the rust belt (i.e., the NE quarter of OH).

  by roxtar on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:02:56 PM PDT

•  Demographics don't work for Obama March 4th

  Demographics for Texas & Ohio don't look that good for Obama, assuming they go like Super Tuesday & prior contests.  Obama has had a real problem with Latinos, who Hillary has won consistently with 65-70% of the vote.  He gets Blacks by 80-85%.  Texas is 36% Latino & 11% Black.  Question, are the white voters in Texas more like those in OK, TN & Missouri, or are they more like those in WA & Maine?

  In Ohio, you have a huge number of blue collar workers.  Same story there, white union workers have consistently gone to Hillary, like in NJ & NV.  For whatever reason this has been a tough constituency for Obama to persuade.  He will have to do that or Hillary will take both of these states March 4th.  If she does he is probably in trouble because PA is really like both NJ & OH, & it would be tough for Obama if she gets momentum on 3/4.

  by letsbepragmatic on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 04:37:10 PM PDT

•  Down 17 points

  and somehow the Obamabots find a way to claim victory.

  Unbelievable.

  by Blue Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:03:02 PM PDT

  •  An informed analysis of the available data

    and not a spin.  Actually, if I'd have waited to complete my diary after the VA, MD and DC polls closed, I'd have used Obama's new gains in the white, latino, and female demographics to further support my argument.  If I'm wrong, it'll show in future polling in Ohio in late February.  I'm pretty good at demographic analysis and I live in and know Ohio, but anything is possible.

    FYI, if manages to win a state and regains some MO and wins the nomination, I'll work my ass off to help her win Ohio and the White House.  

    Best wishes...  

    by Public Servant on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 05:20:26 PM PDT

    •  An informed analysis of the available data

      fair enough. sorry I called you an Obamabot.

      by Blue Democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 06:08:54 PM PDT