Delegate Count: Grand Unified Theory

I've put together some data which show exactly why and where the delegate counts from CBS, CNN, and NBC differ. Results after the jump.

All three networks agree on delegate counts for the following states:

That's where the agreement stops.

CBS totals for the remaining states, and totals, are as follows:

Contrast this with the CNN figures:

Factoring out the "consensus" states, note that CBS's projections add to Obama's pledged delegate advantage by 7 (586-579), while CNN's detract from this advantage by 8 (573-581).

This means CBS's estimate is 15 delegates more advantageous to Obama than CNN's.

To look at the margins state-by-state, CNN's makes an estimate for Virgin Islands, which CBS does not; this yields Obama 3 more delegates net. However, its estimates for other states yield Obama 18 fewer net delegates.

8 of this last difference of 18 arise from one state - Washington (CBS: Obama 43, Clinton 15; CNN: Obama 35, Clinton 15).

The other 11 of these 18 accumulate in ones and twos from Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Lousiana, and Tennessee.

It appears that, for whatever reason, where their margins differ, the CBS estimate is consistently more favorable to Obama than the CNN estimate.

However, keep in mind that the differences are relatively small: 15 out of more than 1100 delegates pledged.

CNN's superdelegate estimate is 19 delegates less generous to Obama than is CBS's: CNN puts Obama's disadvantage here at 89 (135-224), where CBS pegs it at 70 (140-201).

Together, the 15-delegate difference in the pledged delegate estimates, along with the 19-delegate difference in the superdelegate estimates, make up the 34-delegate difference between the CBS and CNN overall estimate. CBS estimates a 7 delegate lead for Obama; CNN's a 27 delegate lead for Clinton.

The CBS/CNN difference is trivial, however, compared to the difference of both to the NBC estimate:

Strikingly, NBC makes gives no estimate for superdelegates. This makes the overall estimate more favorable to Obama: for NBC, Obama leads Clinton by 54 delegates.

In another way, however, the NBC estimate is much less favorable to Obama. With no estimate of the superdelegate margin, NBC's bottom-line estimate and its pledged delegate estimate are identical.
NBC's margin for Obama in pledged delegates of 54, then, is less favorable to him than CNN's (62) or CBS's (77).

The difference seems explained by NBC's leaving more delegates unallocated: NBC's total under TBD (108) is much greater than that for CNN (52) or CBS (66).

Now to post this, before my math gets outdated.

•  So...

  ...now you know.

  by social democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:13:26 AM PDT

•  It's not a mystery...

  Some delegates are technically "undetermined" because they will be officially allocated later (for example, by Washington's state convention).

  But those "undetermined" delegates are only technically undetermined.  Everyone knows what the determination will be because the pledged delegates will be voting for them.  So the outcome is know, just not official.

  CBS seems to have done the best job of understanding the rules, and displaying the "determined by not officially allocated" delegates.

  by AZDem on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:15:40 AM PDT

  •  agreed

    I'm partial to the CBS estimate myself.

    I sort of admire NBC's decision not to make an estimate for superdelegates, though.

    by social democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:17:59 AM PDT

  •  building a mystery

    A letter at TPM suggests those undertermined delegates may be a bit more variable than we might like:

    I took part in a discussion about the Minnesota DFL caucus system last night with a three people who had attended their respective precinct caucuses and been elected delegates. In all three cases the overwhelming ballot count went for Obama, but my friends are Clinton supporters. Obama's supporters tended to cast their ballots and go, and thus Clinton people, often longtime local party activists, were given the nod for just being willing to take on the responsibility, i.e., without even being asked their preferred candidate.

    The other thing to know is that these are not Presidential convention delegates. There are four levels, from precinct to state level, state senate and congressional district in-between I believe.

    Uy!

    by dcdanny on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:26:28 AM PDT

  •  The superdelegates

    are the mystery really, aren't they?

    There sure seem to be a lot of them.

    Do CNN and/or CBS show projections for each individual superdelegate anywhere?  I'm actually surprised their projections aren't further off.

    Then again I've been on vacation without TV or the internet for the last 2 weeks... (I'm still wondering why Gravel wasn't on my DemocratsAbroad ballot...)

    by signals on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 02:32:24 AM PDT

    •  Here's a list of those who have committed

      Superdelegate List

      by badlands on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:32:45 AM PDT

•  NBC IS estimating the superdelegates

  The superdelegate count is in there somewhere.  The difference is they want to separate the concrete numbers from the soft numbers.  The pledged delegates are unmovable, they either vote for Hillary or vote for Obama because a primary or caucus told them to.  Superdelegates can change their preferences on a dime.  To say one candidate has so many delegates if you add in the PLEOs is pointless if that number is subject to change.

  by obligatorydiscord on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 03:50:07 AM PDT

  •  Have a look...

    ...here.

    by social democrat on Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 12:35:37 PM PDT