The Tipping Point?
Tue Feb 12, 2008 at 11:01:19 PM PDT
Maybe I'm biased, and believe me, this is not to suggest anything other than a continued and even escalated full-throttle push for us Obama supporters all the way to the finish. But watching the returns from the Potomac Primaries and the speeches by Obama, McCain and Clinton, I'm thinking that we may be at the "tipping point" in this campaign. I just don't see a path to the nomination for Hillary, and, given that, I suspect that much of her support will wither away in fairly rapid and dramatic fashion. Barring some major, unforseen event, Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee for President of the United States. Here's why:
- It's almost impossible for Hillary to end up with more pledged delegates than Obama. He currently leads Clinton in pledged delegates 1129 to 995. She's obviously looking to make her last stand in Texas, as evidenced by her presence there tonight. But it looks like an Alamo kind of scenario to me. Obama is making inroads into the Latino vote (I think the numbers from Maryland today were 53-47), there is a large black vote there, and a lot of the state looks like the Western caucus states that Obama has absolutely dominated. Plus, it's a hybrid caucus/primary, and because of how the delegates are selected, I've seen some analyses that show that even if he loses the popular vote, he'll probably come out with more delegates than her.
Meanwhile, the next two contests are Wisconsin and Hawaii. Obama was in Wisconsin today speaking to a crowd of 20,000 plus an overflow room. He's won every neighboring state, so I see no reason why Wisconsin won't be another huge win for Obama. Hawaii is his native state and it's another Western caucus, albeit with a different ethnic mix. His Indonesian/American sister Maya and her Chinese husband might help bring in the Asian vote, and the rest of the state will probably be excited to be able to provide a little boost to a native son. I see another huge Obama victory there.
Back to the rest of March 4 -- Rhode Island and Vermont will at best be a wash for Hillary based on the experience in Massachusetts and Maine. That leaves Ohio. Surely a nice prize, and we'll see what happens. But I don't see a big win for Hillary here either. Decent sized African-American community and no big Latino, immigrant or "feminist" vote.
And here's the rub. If she doesn't come out of March 4 with a substantial lead, there's still more Obama-friendly states to come: Mississippi, Oregon, Indiana (neighboring state to Illinois), North Carolina, South Dakota and Nebraska. There's also Kentucky, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Puerto Rico that might be more favorable, but I just don't think that they'll be able to save her. Ultimately, it looks like March 4 or bust for Hillary.
- Florida and Michigan will not save her. If Obama has more delegates, his supporters get to decide whether to change the rules ex post facto for Florida and Michigan, and there's simply no way that they would do that.
- The superdelegates will not save her. First, they have no interest in going against the popular will of the people in their own party, especially when Obama polls better against McCain than Hillary does and has shown a great potential to grow the party with young, new voters and independents. Second, most of the superdelegates in her corner were early endorsers who bought into her inevitability. When it becomes clear that she will not win, I suspect that many of them will jump ship. The black electeds who are out of step with 80-90% of their constituents in many cases, might be leading the way. I imagine that there is a lot more negativity toward the Clintons in the Party establishment than might be thought: this is after all the President who managed to lose the Congress for 12 years and failed to pass on the Presidency to his Vice-President.
So there you have it. Obama will win the most pledged delegates, Florida and Michigan will not be seated until after the nominee is chosen and the superdelegates will shift to Obama. I expect that this thing will end very soon after March 4.
Meanwhile, McCain looked positively horrible tonight. After months of fighting against the strong field of Democratic candidates, McCain seems upon first glance to be easy work for Obama. Maybe others are seeing something I'm not, but I just didn't hear one single positive rationale for his candidacy other than some fear-mongering based on gross distortions of Obama message of hope and change. Just weak. I'm greatly looking forward to working even harder for Obama in the general election.
Fired up and ready to go!
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