The Rest of the Race

At this point, most Kossacks are looking forward to the contests on March 4th. Clearly, so is Sen. Clinton. She appears to be skipping Wisconsin entirely in her desire to campaign in Texas and Ohio. The question that struck me today was this: How badly must Sen. Clinton defeat Sen. Obama in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania, in order to regain the lead in pledged delegates when Denver rolls around? In my analysis, I'll be looking at contests before and after March 4.

All delegate counts come from CBS. Puerto Rico info in this link.

I'm not a professor. I don't have exclusive polls at my fingertips. I've never taken a statistics class. Nevertheless, it's useful to have an estimate of what Clinton will need on March 4th to stay in the race, no matter how rough it is.

In this analysis, I'm completely disregarding superdelegates.

Currently, Obama holds a 135 pledged delegate lead over Sen. Clinton. How will it be affected by the rest of the contests?

Let's start with Wisconsin. As I said, it looks like Clinton has abandoned the state. With a strong ground organization fueled by both hundreds of activist college students and volunteers streaming up from Chicago, it looks like Obama will win this state handily.
Projected delegate breakdown: 43-31 Obama

Hawaii -- Obama's state of birth, and a caucus state? A blowout in the Pacific.
Projected delegate breakdown: 14-6 Obama

Rhode Island -- This one is tough. Polls show Clinton in the lead, but with a 27% "uncommitted" rate among voters. I'll give this one to her.
Projected delegate breakdown: 9-12 Clinton

Vermont -- This one's impossible to read. I'll go ahead and call it the same way as New Hampshire went.
Projected delegate breakdown: 7-8 Clinton

Wyoming -- Finally, an easy contest to call. Obama wins the caucus by a huge margin.
Projected delegate breakdown: 9-3 Obama

Mississippi -- This state looks like a combination of LA and GA. I'd imagine that Obama will win the popular vote by a landslide, but the delegate count will be closer than you think.
Projected delegate breakdown: 20-13 Obama

Let's imagine that Guam goes 2-2.

Indiana -- This one is also tough to call. Let's say it goes the same way as Ohio, accounting for the likely flood of volunteers from Illinois and and the lower black population. I live in Indiana, though, and this state has a huge potential upside for Obama.
Projected delegate breakdown: 30-42 Clinton

North Carolina -- Thanks to SUSA doing a completely random and recent poll of NC, this one is easy to call. Of course, this prediction is subject to change after an Edwards endorsement.
Projected delegate breakdown: 63-52 Obama

West Virginia -- Just looking at the results for Western Virginia gives you all the info you need on this one.
Projected delegate breakdown: 11-17 Clinton

Kentucky -- I don't see Obama doing any better than Tennessee or Indiana here.
Projected delegate breakdown: 21-30 Clinton

Oregon -- This is Washington State minus Seattle, I think.
Projected delegate breakdown: 29-23 Obama

Montana -- Obama runs away with it.
Projected delegate breakdown: 11-5 Obama

South Dakota -- Ditto
Projected delegate breakdown: 10-5 Obama

Puerto Rico -- Does Obama's 50 state strategy include Puerto Rico? Maybe it doesn't have to. Obama got the endorsement of the governor in a winner-take-all state dominated by party politics. But Puerto Ricans are generally pro-Clinton. And yet, the delegates are allocated more based on the party leaders than on the popular vote. This race is so weird that, at this point, it is virtually uncallable.

Whoa. So we've suddenly got 55 delegates that we have no idea are going to go one way or the other.

Anyway, onto the statistics. Obama has about a 279-249 advantage from today until the end of the contest, not counting Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. This means that he will have about a 165 delegate advantage the day before the Puerto Rico primary, not counting the Big Three states.

If Hillary is destined to win Puerto Rico, then she will need around a 115 margin of pledged delegates from Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. There are 492 delegates up for grabs, so Clinton will have to win about 62% of the vote overall in those states to get a lead in pledged delegates, even if Puerto Rico goes her way. If PR goes Obama's way, then the percentages become insurmountable for Clinton.

You can draw your own conclusion on how superdelegates factor into all this. All I can say is that I believe that if a candidate has the lead in pledged delegates, the nomination will somehow, someway flow to them, through backroom deals or however. But perhaps that is a foolish belief. The superdelegate situation is so crazy right now that it is better to let it sort itself out.

•  Tips for a fair result in this contest.

  Whatever your definition of "fair" is. :)

  by motbob on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 11:59:06 AM PDT

•  Writing is on the wall for Clinton!

  I still think Obama is not the best candidate for general. I am afraid he will lose to McCain.

  by Texas Ram on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:04:14 PM PDT

•  Vermont

  I understand that you're being conservative in your projections, but have got to say that the idea that Vermont will go like NH is probably off base.

  The fundamentals in Vermont are very favorable to Obama --

  - Obama has the endorsement of Senator Pat Leahy and Congressman Peter Welch, as well as a very large number of elected state legislators and party leaders. Clinton has much more limited support (although that does include former Gov Madeleine Kunin and the speaker of the state house)

  - Vermont has a history of supporting insurgents in Democratic nominating contests -- Hart won big here in 84, Jesse  Jackson in 88, Jerry Brown in 92, Dean in 04 (even after he had withdrawn). (Bradley would probably have been competitive here in 2000 if the contest had gone on that long)

  -- In terms of campaign contributors, Obama has outraised Clinton from Vermonter by nearly 10-1 ($398k to $44k)

  -- There is an extremely active volunteer Obama campaign in the state that has been organizing for months, with very little evidence of a comparable Clinton campaign

  -- The state is made for Obama -- the state Democratic party is full of the kind of white collar, activists, educated voters who have flocked to Obama -- with a sizeable student population to boot. The base of blue collar Dems in the state is much smaller.

  I don't want to raise expectations, but it seems clear on the ground here in Vermont that it is realistic to put Vermont as a likely Obama win -- I'd be hesitant to project a large margin, but everything here suggests it is unlikely to be a Clinton state.

  by terjeanderson on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:12:26 PM PDT

•  Again, may I remind you...

  Puerto Rico does not get an exemption to hold a winner-take-all event.  It will be split between the candidates.  Any attempt to circumvent the rules will guarantee a credentials fight and the likely exclusion of the Puerto Rican delegation.

  by Randall Sherman on Wed Feb 13, 2008 at 12:54:02 PM PDT