Franken and Coleman: TIED in new poll

Coleman 47% Al Franken 46%

Norm Coleman moved into a staticall dead heat in the newest poll released last night (2/13/8). Although it’s somewhat small poll, 650 respondents, I remember Survey USA was pretty much spot on in 2006 with numbers here in Minnesota.  

Coleman 47%
Al Franken 46%

Coleman 51%
Mike Ciresi 40%

Coleman 58%
Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer 30%

http://kstp.com/...

That is a hell of a swing considering everyone up against Coleman was down 20 points last year.

•  I like Al Franken. He is a progressive. And...

  ....it will be nice to have some one in Congress to make the Republicans look like the asses they are, but in a SNL kinda way.

  by sephius1 on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 05:47:39 AM PDT

•  Damn

  This would be a fantastic pickup.

  by Jaiwithani on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 05:49:59 AM PDT

•  Good to hear, as it seems like Franken is going

  to get the nomination.  People are always moaning about Franken's past (the book, the radio show) coming back to haunt him.  It isn't as though Coleman doesn't have a ton of baggage, too:  he has  been a Bush Boot Licker for seven years and his votes generally reflect that.  If you want something that haunts, it seems to me that being a Bush toady is about as good as it gets.

  It is fairly unusual for an incumbent to be even in the polls this far away from the election, is it not?  How's that Bush licking working out for you, Norm.

  by feelingsickinMN on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 05:50:08 AM PDT

  •  I should say also that all three Senate

    candidates in MN are of a rare and high quality so I don't give a damn, as long as Norm bites the dust and hits the road out of our state.

    by feelingsickinMN on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 05:52:06 AM PDT

    •  I want Al to win... I used to listen to his

      AAR show.  He is smart, he is serious about this country and what needs to happen in this very scary era.  He may be a wee bit too cautious, but with an elightened staff and good people around him, I trust him to make the kind of decisions that a real progressive would make.  I don't think he will end up to be a Ken Salazar or a Jim Webb.  I hope he gets the nomination and wins.  When is their primary?  Isn't that about over?

      by victoria2dc on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 06:44:22 AM PDT

      •  Primary later in summer

        Nominating convention in June

        by parryander on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 07:21:55 AM PDT

•  This has always struck me as a tough race...

  ...Franken, though I love him, strikes me as very polarizing and divisive. Coleman, on the other hand, has voted against Bush just enough times to convince a chunk of low-information voters that he's the moderate consensus-maker they so desperately crave.

  I'm not saying Franken can't win, just that it won't be the cakewalk last year's polls might have suggested.

  by StuckBetweenStations on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 05:53:55 AM PDT

  •  How much do you think it

    will hurt Franken if Coleman runs on how "OMG he wrote a book calling Rush a big fat idiot!!! 11!!! He called conservative talk show hosts liars!! 11!!!"  I don't know if it's already well-known, or at least front-and-center in the minds of most voters.

    The two other biggest strikes are having struggles with the Air America franchise, and taking the Kerry/Edwards/Clinton "for it before I was against it" position on Iraq.

    by BlueEngineerInOhio on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 06:03:16 AM PDT

  •  Yeah the right wing hates him...

    but when the people really begin to listen to him, you'll see that they will vote for him.

    by victoria2dc on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 06:45:27 AM PDT

•  Jack is my guy.

  He is still unknown but he is the most Wellstone like of the 3 candidates.

  http://www.jackforsenate.org

  by Demrock6 on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 05:57:03 AM PDT

  •  Yes, Jack is the strongest

    progressive voice of the three.

    by Prairie Populist on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 07:02:18 AM PDT

•  Franken was ahead a few days ago

  Probably just statistical noise back and forth now.  Hopefully he hangs through to the end...because he's good enough, smart enough, and doggone it, people like him!!

  by BlueEngineerInOhio on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 05:59:45 AM PDT

•  when is your primary?

  So much energy in the political races this year has been sucked into the Presidential primaries, that there are all these exciting Senate races happening, too.

  I am in NC and we have a primary in early May, with a terrific progressive candidate, Jim Neal, running in a dead heat with another, more traditional Dem candidate. He wants to unseat the absent Elizabeth Dole, rubberstamper to Bush. You can see him speak on YouTube and see he is the kind of Democrat we need in the Senate(you know, the kind with spine!) Or check his website, Jim Neal for Senate and throw him some netroots support!

  Mild disclaimer: I volunteer for his campaign - the first time in my 50 plus years I have really felt energized to do this. Thanks, Daily Kos, for pushing me out of my apathy! It feels great to have candidates to support.

  Would love to hear about other races that aren't in the headlines!

  by Chun Yang on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 06:07:28 AM PDT

  •  We primary in Sept, which isn't that great since

    it leaves a fairly short amount of time for campaigning.  I don't know how effective it would be to move the primary up a couple of months.  We take our very short summers here seriously, don't like them interrupted!

    by feelingsickinMN on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 06:17:25 AM PDT

  •  nominating convention

    for the DFL nod is in early June

    by parryander on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 06:29:53 AM PDT

    •  Old and faulty memory, but am I not correct in

      remembering that Arne didn't get the Repub nomination for Guv the first time around, but went on to win the primary in Sept.?  Strange things can happen.

      by feelingsickinMN on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 06:38:28 AM PDT

      •  yes -

        I thought Arne was a last minute candidate when Grunseth dropped out (hanky-panky in a pool)(God, what I would give for Arne back in office...)
        I just mentioned the State DFL convention because we have yet to nominate a senate candidate. There are candidates who bypass the nominating process - Dayton was one, but they generally don't do very well. It's also a real slap in the face to those of us who bother to sit through these conventions and pay some attention to whats going on...

        by parryander on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 06:49:37 AM PDT

        •  I heard Arne on MPR a few months ago and I

          mourned, actually mourned, for the loss of such a Republican--and I have never voted Rethug in my life.  At least he is now an indie, but still, what has this state come to that a Pawlenty can be elected.  The quality in the Republican party in MN is totally gone, so far as I am concerned, and apparently Arne agrees with me.

          by feelingsickinMN on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 06:55:38 AM PDT

          •  Three way races

            have made folks like Pawlenty-o-nuthin gain office. Can't forget Jesse.

            by parryander on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 06:59:54 AM PDT

            •  All three candidates will "abide"

              The 3-way split will not mess up the November election or even the September primary, if there is one.  Al Franken, Mike Ciresi and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer have each agreed (publicly and often) to pull out of the race if someone else gets the party endorsement at the June state party convention.

              So party unity is not a November problem, unless there is no endorsement in June.  Or unless someone breaks his promise.  If the June convention, however, doesn't vote to endorse anyone, then a 3-way November race could be a very big problem.  That would be an outcome that Minnesota Democrats should avoid, in my opinion.  

              by Charles Underwood on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 09:39:12 AM PDT

              •  indeed!

                (Hi Charlie - I'm a huge fan of your Peace Calendar)

                by parryander on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 01:41:54 PM PDT

•  Better not hope Hillary is at the top.

  Because Minnesota is not in any way important to her.

  by brooklynbadboy on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 06:13:27 AM PDT

  •  Purely my own speculation, but I think you

    are correct in that an Obama nomination will be much more effective in the coattail department than a Hillary nomination.  This is definitely an Obama state, as evidenced by the caucus.

    by feelingsickinMN on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 06:19:23 AM PDT

•  Reasons for optimism

  

  From this poll alone, you'll notice Coleman doing very well among the 18-34 age group. That is primarily name recognition. As the campaign begins, assuming Franken wins the primary, he will get a larger share of that age group. Currently Franken is winning among those over 50. That bodes well for him as that age group votes in much higher numbers anyway.

  Another thing to notice is that self-described liberals only made up 15% of this survey. That ought to go up significantly as the election nears. Franken wins almost 90% among them.

  And of course Coleman's own dismal approval ratings factor into the equation.

  by Scarce on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 06:19:50 AM PDT

  •  I suspect that the 18-34 group will turn out in

    bigger numbers if Obama is the candidate, and I also suspect that they won't be as bothered by Franken's f-bombs, etc., as older voters.  

    by feelingsickinMN on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 06:30:55 AM PDT