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A subtitle should be: super-delegates look in here!!

Rasmussen put out new head-to-head match-ups between McCain and Obama and McCain and Clinton in the battleground states of Pennsylvania and Oregon.

Here's what you're saying to yourself: "Pennsylvania and Oregon, battleground states?  No way.  Not in this year of all years, those are safe Democratic states!"  Really?  Read on:  

First, the top-line news:

Pennsylvania:
Obama 49%
McCain 39%

McCain 44%
Clinton 42%

Oregon:
Obama 49%
McCain 40%

McCain 45%
Clinton 42%

Now, let's break it down.  First, Pennsylvania, in which, I'll remind you, Hillary Clinton has huge leads in the primary polling.  But take a look at this:

In an early look at potential general election Presidential match-ups in Pennsylvania, Barack Obama leads John McCain while McCain is in a toss-up with Hillary Clinton.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Obama attracting 49% of the vote while McCain earns 39%. However, in a McCain-Clinton match-up, the Arizona Senator has a statistically insignificant two-point lead, 44% to 42%.

Pennsylvania, the state that according to its governor, wouldn't vote for a black guy.

Next up, Oregon.  OREGON!!! I mean, c'mon, even Kerry won Oregon.  After all that's happened, this should be the most reliably blue state in the country!  Not with Hillary Clinton at top of the ticket:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll in Oregon shows John McCain leading Hillary Clinton 45% to 42%. However, Barack Obama leads John McCain 49% to 40%. McCain leads Clinton among voters not affiliated with either major political party but Obama leads McCain.

Ah, but don't worry, pollster extraordinaire Mark Penn told us that Clinton would get a huge bump from women voters in the general election.  Um, no:

The current poll finds Clinton leading McCain by four points among men but trailing the Republican by eleven points among women. Obama leads McCain by fourteen percentage points among women and by five among men.

Now, I don't know about you, but I think winning Pennsylvania and Oregon in the fall is incredibly important.  Those states clearly matter.   Without them, we won't have a chance.

So super delegates, pay close attention.  If you're role is to do what's in the best interest of this country, there really is no choice to be made.

P.S.: Here come all the Clinton supporters telling me head-to-head match ups are meaningless now.  Yes, maybe one or two.  But the patter is clear, and the evidence is overwhelming.  So, you're dealing with a weak hand if you try to make that case.

UPDATE: Forward these numbers to a super delegate!

Originally posted to dansac on Sun Feb 17, 2008 at 10:40 AM PST.

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