New York remains one of a handful of states in which Clinton will clearly be victorious on Tuesday by a relatively large (double digit) margin. Current polls show her leading by between 16% and 21%.
New York is likely to be the state which generates the biggest net delegate gain for Hillary. How many delegates will this be?
New York has 29 Congressional districts, 23 of which will elect 5 delegates and six of which will elect 6 delegates.
In addition, 81 delegates will be apportioned based on the statewide vote.
For the 23 districts electing five delegates, a candidate who receives between 50.1% and 69.9% of the vote will receive three delegates. A candidate receiving between 30.1% and 49.9% will receive two delegates.
Gaining 69.9% of the vote in a two candidate race, means winning by almost 40%. It is possible, but not very likely (given a statewide lead of 16% to 21%) that Clinton will win by 40%. In most districts, the most likely outcome, therefore, is a 3-2 delegate win by Clinton. Two of these districts (Meeks and Towns) are African-American, and there is some chance that Obama wins those. Thus, from these districts, Hillary has a net gain of 19 to 23 delegates.
For the six districts electing six delegates,a candidate will win four delegates with 58.3% or more if the vote, which translates to a lead of about 16%.
Of these six districts, two (Rangel and Clarke) are majority African-American. While Obama could win those, it seems unlikely he could do so by 16 points. On the other hand, it seems unlikely that Clinton could do so either. Thus these districts are likely to split 3-3 in terms of delegates.
Two of the others (Nadler and Maloney) are in Manhattan and one is in Weschester (Lowey) and have a significant number of wealthier voters of the type that Obama has been doing well with. While Hilllary should win these districts, it seems unlikely she will do so by 16 points. Again therefore, the most likely outcome is a three to three split.
The final district electing 6 delegates is upstate. Here, Clinton could win by enough to have a 4-2 edge.
The remaining 81 delegates are apportioned based on the statewide vote. If Clinton leads by 20 points, she will get 49 delegates to Obama's 32, for a net gain of 17. If she leads by 16%, she gets 47 delegates for a net gain of 13. On the other hand, if she won by 25%, she would have a net gain of 21.
Thus, Hillary would seem likely to net between 34 and 46 delegates from New York. Now, this is a significant chunk of delegates. But it is not a number that Obama can't offset elsewhere.
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