Wisconsin Primary: Young Voters Choose Democrats 4 - 1

Cross posted from Future Majority.

The final results from the Wisconsin primary are in, and CIRCLE is done crunching the data.  Once again the story is the same - youth turnout in the Democratic Primary almost doubled, increasing from 91,120 in 2004 to 175,841 in yesterday's contest.  Young voters were 16 percent of the Democratic electorate, up from 11 percent in 2004.  The overall turnout rate for young voters (Republican and Democrats) was 25 percent, 11 points lower than the overall turnout rate of 36 percent.

Yet again, young voters chose Sen. Barack Obama by wide margins.  70 percent of young voters chose Sen. Obama over 26 percent who voted for Clinton.  Obama performed slightly better among 18 - 24 year olds than he did the older cohort, but the differences were modest at best.

The big story continues to be the massive turnout in favor of Democrats.  The graph we produced at Future Majority after Super Tuesday, already out of date after last week's Potomac Primaries, is even more off now (if anything these margins are larger), but still quite illustrative of just how large an advantage young voters will be for the Democrats this cycle.  

As I describe in my book, Youth to Power, Senator Obama didn't create this youth movement.  It began back in 2003 and showed its strength in 2004 when the youth vote increased substantially for the first time in over a decade.  We saw it again in 2006 when a wave of youth participation voted 60 - 38 percent in favor of Democrats and helped drive Sen. Jon Tester, Sen. Jim Webb, and Rep. Joe Courtney into office.

What's happening now is that Senator Obama is tapping into - and amplifying - that movement through a combination of message and - most importantly - substantial investment into reaching out and engaging young voters.  The Democratic Party and candidates up and down the ticket would do well to learn some lessons from the Obama campaign.  They too can benefit from the increased progressivism and participation of young voters if they reach out, speak to our issues, and put real resources into organizing young voters in their districts.

•  tips

  by Michael Connery on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:08:39 AM PDT

•  If this keeps up...

  The Republicans will try to raise the voting age to 30...

  That is why we need to scare our youth that the 100 years war and wars at any cost will mean that your ass will/can be drafted!!!

  Nothing motivates a student more than the fear of being drafted...

  by dvogel001 on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:12:11 AM PDT

  •  And cap it at 40.

    The Republicans will try to raise the voting age to 30...

    by pat208 on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:17:05 AM PDT

    •  LOL!!!

      by dvogel001 on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:42:19 AM PDT

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  Find our your senators names, call and ask to speak with them and tell them you strongly oppose S. 1959, the Violent Radicalization of Homegrown Terrorist Prevention Act; ask for their fax number and send a signed letter.
  Please help and keep American free, the way it was intended....protect our constitution...here is the link where you can find all the information: http://educate-yourself.org/...

  PLEASE HELP!!!

  by luckyluci on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:12:33 AM PDT

•  I would caution this on all Dem/Repub comparisons

  The Republicans have their nominee. There is no reason for them to go to the polls. While I agree that the Dems are crushing them in turnout, since Romney dropped out, I think most comparisons leave out this important factor. Republicans have no reason to show up.

  by Travis Stark on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:13:04 AM PDT

  •  This has been going on

    I disagree - in this instance in particular.  Huckabee has consistently scored better among the Republican candidates among youth.  So young voters do still have a dog in the race to some extent.

    Also, the graph above ONLY illustrates data taken before Romney dropped out of the race, so the comparison holds.

    by Michael Connery on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:28:42 AM PDT

•  The ratio is probably worse when you take

  out Ron Paul's numbers.

  by duha on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:14:37 AM PDT

  •  Actually

    Actually, if you look at the CNN polls, Ron Paul consistently scored lower than Huckabee, McCain, and Romney among conservative youth.  

    Removing one of them from the equation would be far more detrimental than Ron Paul, whose support among GOP youth at the polls never topped 20%.  In no state did Ron Paul win the Republican youth vote (defined as 18 - 29 here and in all calculations from CIRCLE).

    by Michael Connery on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:30:13 AM PDT

    •  you still don't get it.

      Huckabee youth voters will vote for McCain in the general.  Romney youth voters will vote for McCain in the general.

      Ron Paul voters will not vote for McCain in the general.  It doesn't matter if the other people's youth voters were larger.  Those voters aren't going anywhere.

      by duha on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:45:42 AM PDT

•  What's important to realize

  is that those scoffing at youth voting back in the 90s had a smaller youth vote.  The echo boom is largely (though not solely) concentrated in Millenials, who were born 1982-2000 or so.  2004 was their first crucial election, but over half of the generation was unable to vote!

  So while the youth vote is currently trending Democratic, that whole three times voting pattern has not been established. Many Millenials still haven't voted at all!

  by Nulwee on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:14:38 AM PDT

  •  True

    This is true, though I would put Millennials down as 1978 - 1996.  The name comes from the college/highschool classes of 2000, and most pollsters put it down as this age range.

    But you are right, only the very oldest of Millennials are hitting their 3rd election this year.  A vast majority have never cast a ballot.

    By 2015, Millennials will be 1/3 of the electorate.

    by Michael Connery on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:32:06 AM PDT

•  Hmm

  Wisconsin last night: CNN exit poll demographics:
  Democratic vote by Gender
  Men   42%
  women 58%

  Democratic vote by Age
  18-30   16%
  31-45   22%
  46-60   34%
  60+     29%

  The youngest quartile of the voting population still vote the least.  Only 16% of the voters this time, a decrease from 18% on Supertuesday.
  CNN Election Center:  Wisconsin demographics

  by Rolfyboy6 on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:15:50 AM PDT

•  Does anyone have a good link to...

  ... the fascinating piece of research that the NY Times reported on last year? The piece made two points:

  1. People tend to stick with the political orientation they set in their 20s.

  2. The newest voters are the most Democratic-skewed cohort since, well, mine - born in the early 50s.

  I'd love to be able to find the piece (which I've searched for in vain), and to be able to bring it out to stress the importance of nominating Obama, and winning in November. It could seal a Democratic numerical advantage that could endure for decades (literally!).

  by pat208 on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:16:35 AM PDT

  •  Not sure if this is what you are talking about

    but its similar...The Progressive Politics of the Millennial Generation

    by WellstoneDem on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:25:26 AM PDT

  •  No but

    Not a Times piece, but you can find information on both of those things here:

    Partisanship is a habit (pdf) - Young Voter Strategies

    The Progressive Politics of the Millennial Generation - ew Politics Institute.

    Not to be a press whore, but you can also read my book, which covers all of this.

    by Michael Connery on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:35:51 AM PDT

•  oh, hell, yes we can!

  oh boy

  by condoleaser on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:18:59 AM PDT

•  Good work!

  In Dane County, admittedly where the very liberal U. of Wisconsin, Madison is, the Democratic turnout was Obama 66% and Clinton 33%  

  Here's a mind-boggling stat:  in Ward 34 of that county, there were 2,000 democratic voters and only 53 Republicans.  McCain got 29 votes there and Obama 1,486.  

  by fflambeau on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 07:43:02 AM PDT

  •  34th Ward

    old hippie homeoweners, underemployed musicians/artists, and the highest concentration of lesbian parents in the country.

    In the '02 Governor race, the Republican finished behind both the Green and the Libertarian. in 2000, Nader ~25%

    by ben masel on Wed Feb 20, 2008 at 11:34:00 AM PDT