If Obama wins, it's 4-8 more years of triangulation & emboldening of the Right
Sat Feb 23, 2008 at 10:53:16 AM PDT
I recently picked up Obama's book "The Audacity of Hope". I have not finished it yet, but he makes no attempt to explain what he means by 'the audacity of hope'. The first chapter, Republicans and Democrats, reads like a screed straight from the New Republic summarizing all the platitudes that pundits have been making about polarization in the last few years. He praises Reagan effusively, not only Reagan's optimism but also his authoritarianism and traditionalism, before sheepishly stating 'I admit, I am a Democrat.'
This continues in the next few chapters. He tries to act like an impartial observer who can see both sides, yet he always comes down on the liberal side at the end. Obama seems like a liberal who doesn't know he's a liberal or tries to pretend that he is not in order to make himself seem more reasonable.
I don't see how this message can possibly hold up. If he wins, he'll have to make decisions that either piss off the other side, and thus betray his image as a moderate who wants to bring both sides together, or really triangulate to the center, and thus betray the liberals who supported him and their real concerns and differences with the right and the center over policy. Either way there will be a betrayal and a disillusionment.
We've seen this game all played before. In 1992, a young new governor from Hope was elected President, who tried to transcend the liberal and conservative labels. Obama suggests, in "The Audacity of Hope", that Bill Clinton had gotten it correctly, with the exception that his draft dodging and sex scandals made him seem like a 60s extremist. So basically, Obama would go back and do what Bill Clinton did again without the draft dodging and the sex scandals.
But the problem with triangulation of the Clinton years wasn't just the scandals. Clinton actually did try to move to the center in policy - it wasn't just rhetoric. It was the betrayal felt by progressives that demobilized and demoralized progressives and left the energized right-wing as the only strong activist movement standing. And that demoralization of the Democratic base left the Republicans in a stronger position than ever. If Obama does the same thing, expect the same dynamics to play out.
If Obama on the other hand governs as a liberal, then there will be another betrayal. A lot of people who read The Audacity of Hope and listened to his message about considering both sides will be angry that he has taken consistently liberal sides on all the issues. Or, they will simply stop believing that he can really bring both sides together and remember the issues that keep them apart.
Like Bill Clinton, Obama is an unbalanced ship and whichever way it falls, it will not be pretty.
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