Per SUSA: Obama Leading in Texas

The latest SurveyUSA poll from the Lone Star State has some fantastic news for Barack Obama: he is currently leading the race for the Democratic nomination. The demographics of the poll are revealing: Obama has cut into some of Hillary Clinton's key voting blocs. A local radio station has a streaming discussion of the results and implications here.

More importantly, the poll reveals that the Obama momentum from the month of February hasn't slowed. 25% of the respondents in the sample had voted early, with Clinton leading narrowly among this group. In essence, Texas is the reverse of the California primary. Clinton must overcome this tight early race if she wishes to take the state of Texas on March 4th.

The Obama campaign has been aggressively courting early voters everywhere: The Field reports that an Obama rally in Cincinnati, Ohio drew 11,000 people. After the rally, the campaign commandeered buses to give prospective voters a ride to the polls.

This is an exciting race - and I have to say that I'm fired up!

UPDATE: The poll can be found here. Obama is up 49-45.

UPDATE 2: Clinton holds a narrow lead among early voters. I messed up: the PERCENTAGE of people who voted early was high, but Hillary actually leads this group narrowly at the moment. There are a few more days to go, however.

•  Yippee!!!!!! n/t

  by First Amendment on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:03:53 PM PDT

  •  you think we had an edge on that poll?

    LOL

    GoBama!

    by valadon on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:33:50 PM PDT

•  Tips/flames

  ?

  by scimitar on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:04:03 PM PDT

  •  Help us do the Texas Two-Step!

    Sorry to jump in, but this is really, really important. EVERYONE: email every Obama supporter you know in Texas, and remind them to VOTE and CAUCUS for Obama.

    PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT!
    Download a fact sheet in English OR Spanish from the Resource Center and send it on to them! Barack the Vote, and Barack-us the Caucus!

    Ok. Back to your regularly-scheduled commenting. :-)

    by kath25 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:25:47 PM PDT

    •  A few days ago I posted a comment

      about my friends in Lubbock who were supportive of Obama. Three friends, three personal calls from me, and three votes for the O!

      If you have friends/relatives in Texas, get on the phone, people!

      by scimitar on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:28:44 PM PDT

      •  Vote and Caucus!

        They have to go BACK to their polling location on Tuesday March 4th at 7:00 p.m. and sign in for Barack. That's it. We need our supporters to come back and caucus so we can get the maximum number of delegates.

        Educate your Texan friends and help Barack do it up.

        by kath25 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:30:12 PM PDT

        •  Help needed for El Paso

          Help wake El Paso up for Obama!

          Background details (why El Paso needs special attention) are in this diary I posted yesterday:

          Hill, Bill, & Chelsea visited my town this week -- but I wanna see Barack

          Please help get the word out to southwesterners to call their friends in El Paso!

          by ivote2004 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:59:55 PM PDT

  •  Any info on when the next Ohio Susa comes out?

    by Junglered1 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:56:08 PM PDT

•  huge surge hear!

  Obama up big in latest TX SUSA poll.

  http://cbs11tv.com/...

  Still, voters in North Texas seem to be pouring into the Obama camp. Since our last poll one week ago, Obama has gained 4 points and Clinton has lost 5. Clinton held a two-point lead among locals, and Obama leads 57% to 38%.

  by shlenny on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:04:37 PM PDT

•  obama is down by 15 points

  as far as I am concerned.

  by onanyes on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:04:58 PM PDT

  •  don't get too cocky!

    ;)

    25 points down is what i've heard. I'm not unestimating the Amarillo Democratic vote!

    by RBH on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:06:43 PM PDT

  •  Why?

    by la urracca on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:07:07 PM PDT

    •  Because

      "Fools are destroyed by their own complacency"

      I will always pretend he is the underdog until it's November and he has 270 electoral votes.

      by nrafter530 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:11:57 PM PDT

      •  OK. Got it. He is "down 15". Or 30. n/t

        by la urracca on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:14:10 PM PDT

        •  OMG.. He's down at least 40!!!!!

          I'm going to block an hour or two to make calls tomorrow..

          and I just gave another 50!

          by wclathe on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:36:04 PM PDT

          •  GOBAMA! FIRE IT UP!! YES WE CAN!!!!

            by concerned on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 09:47:39 PM PDT

    •  You're missing out on the fun of "Down 30"

      it's a post-NH thing

      by RBH on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:12:08 PM PDT

    •  He's saying we shouldn't get cocky.

      And we shouldn't.

      by LJW on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:23:04 PM PDT

    •  'I'll be the nominee' - Hillary Clinton last year

      Any questions?

      by sgilman on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:39:03 PM PDT

      •  I propose a 3rd party...

        Hillary for America!

        by cardinalzen on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:55:54 PM PDT

      •  OK, OK...don't pile on.. I may be slow...

        but I definitely got it!
        And as someone said above ( a great idea, too), tomorrow I will be phone banking ( in Spanish ...if you speak Spanish , they need people to make calls) for Texas.

        by la urracca on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 09:01:26 PM PDT

  •  Good for you!

    In your fantasy world, Clinton can be the President too.

    by CanAm on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:07:11 PM PDT

    •  I think you misunderstand his point

      His point is: PHONEBANK.

      by beanbagz on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:08:10 PM PDT

      •  yes, I see that now...my apologies.

        by CanAm on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:11:39 PM PDT

  •  are you STILL on with this 'down by 25' riff?

    This thing is over.  And even if it wasn't, and he WAS down by 25, that would make me weep, not work.

    by Tuffie on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:11:56 PM PDT

    •  right

      We should think "tied", not down 25. Down 25 is just sad. That's not at all what's happening. What's happening is we have a chance to win this thing, and we need to take it.

      by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:14:09 PM PDT

      •  Let's go for the gusto!!!

        by valadon on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:35:50 PM PDT

    •  down by 5 then. :-) n/t

      by onanyes on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:14:10 PM PDT

    •  It's not over until

      Hillary says it's over, like it or not. Get back to work!

      by johnsonwax on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:20:00 PM PDT

      •  Hillary wins texas

        can't wait to hear it.

        by ldog1970 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:31:48 PM PDT

        •  perhaps...

          ...chalk it up to that advice she's getting from some new advisor, 'Dewey'.  Seems he had some degree of success against this 'Truman' guy.

          by teedz on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:41:17 PM PDT

        •  You May Need To Rethink That

          by dpc on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 09:21:02 PM PDT

    •  he was down by 25 for 11 months (n/t)

      by Major Organ on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:35:19 PM PDT

•  what is the early voting %? n/t

  by maineiac on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:05:23 PM PDT

  •  I don't think they can report that

    That would be the same as beginning to count during the day on election day and posting running totals.
    It'll surpress voter turnout at the end if people know that the state is already "won", and that could throw the outcome.

    So all we have is anacdotal evidence from polls of people who say they already voted.  But you won't see official numbers.

    by Norm in Chicago on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:08:18 PM PDT

    •  well

      I saw data on early voting for California and had read that they were going to have this number.  In any case, it's from a poll and is not the actual results.

      by maineiac on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:12:52 PM PDT

      •  My local news said the poll of early voters

        was a 5-point lead for Clinton.

        KTRK:

        Cinton does lead among people who've already placed their early vote, 51 to 46 percent. We will see if that lead holds when early voting ends on Friday.

        by dewberry on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:19:40 PM PDT

        •  I think you're right

          I was listening in on radio and they said that they wouldn't give the numbers, but  it looks like HRC does lead among early voters. I'll update the diary to reflect this.

          by scimitar on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:22:01 PM PDT

          •  It's..

            ..51-46, Clinton, amongst early voters.  HOWEVER..  bare in mind that this trend is likely to switch as momentum continues to propel Obama, while more have second thoughts about Clinton(Saturday to Monday..).   The debate is make-or-break for Hillary.  I think she made a mistake about going hard after him this weekend, now she'll surely be questioned about that.   So will Obama.  If her plan was to debate substance, there'll only be so much and it'll be clouded by the much-more personal areas that are sure to be debated.  If I were her, I'd just sail to March 4th and give an incredibly-gracious and unifying concession speech.

            by Setrak on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:26:22 PM PDT

        •  I thought early voters were going Obama? So

          that's not welcome news, right?

          by jeff in nyc on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:27:19 PM PDT

          •  Yes and no

            Obviously if the trend holds, Obama loses Texas.  Not a good thing.  However, he is in that 5 point cushion that most thought would be right for him.  Definitely a positive.  

            by kilgore2345 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:34:22 PM PDT

          •  they may be......

            see my comment, above

            by penncove on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:41:12 PM PDT

        •  Yep that's right

          by ldog1970 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:32:32 PM PDT

        •  Rasmussen

          shows a different result on early voting.  He has 29% of people as having voted early and Senator Obama up big with the early voters.  SUSA has only 25% having voted early and Senator Clinton leading narrowly.  Given the margins of error I'd say on average that Senator Obama is up by a few points among early voters.  Finally, I do not know how much of these two pollsters are good at picking up subgroups (young voteres and African Americans) who usually don't show up and vote and them coming out to vote big time this election cycle (hence kos' allusion that whatever pollsters say you should probably add a couple points to Senator Obama).

          by True Independent on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:36:35 PM PDT

          •  Crosstabs are sometimes unreliable

            I think the Rasmussen poll is the right one in terms of early voting, but since the sample sizes for the subgroups of these polls are very small in some cases, it's hard to get solid trendlines going.

            SUSA's good, but based on news reports and anecdotal talks with some friends in Texas, I'd hedge my bets that the latter is the right estimate.

            by scimitar on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:41:55 PM PDT

        •  interestingly, the Rasmussen has a different feel

          go here to see what they say:

          "Twenty-nine percent (29%) say they have already voted and Obama leads handily among this group."

          Very different implication from this SUSA poll.  My observation, for weeks now, has been that all the pollsters are having to scramble to keep up with the fast-shifting scene, adjusting their turnout assumptions on the fly.  We'll see about 8 days hence whether SUSA or Rasmussen was closer on this one.....

          by penncove on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:40:11 PM PDT

•  Specific numbers?

  Three pollsters in a row show Obama has taken the lead in Texas. SUSA makes it official as far as I'm concerned.

  BTW, it's clear the Obama campaign pushed early voting in Texas for this EXACT reason. They saw that it produced much of Clinton's margin in California, and didn't want to be dragged down by it again.

  by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:05:42 PM PDT

  •  Not necessarily regarding California

    Exit polls showed Obama losing by around the same margin he actually did. Early voting doesn't seem to have affected the results too much.

    by Michiganliberal on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:08:02 PM PDT

    •  Actually

      Exit polls showed those who showed up the day of the election were evenly split between Senators Obama and Clinton.  The 9 point margin was entirely due to the 20 point lead she had in early voting which accounted for nearly 35% of the entire vote.

      by True Independent on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:38:17 PM PDT

      •  From what I can see,

        CNN exit polls show Clinton winning 53-42. I assume that all exit polls were taken on the day of the election, as that's the definition, and they don't seem to give breakdowns by early voting/etc.

        by Michiganliberal on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:45:53 PM PDT

        •  They adjust them to match the results (nt)

          by anonymit on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 09:34:52 PM PDT

  •  here's the numbers

    http://cbs11tv.com/...

    New CBS 11 Poll Puts Obama Ahead Of Clinton
    Reporting
    Jay Gormley
    FORT WORTH (CBS 11 News) ―

    In a new poll conducted for CBS 11 News and 1080 KRLD, Barack Obama has moved ahead of Hillary Clinton among Texas Democrats.

    The new figures show Obama with 49% and Clinton with 45%. SurveyUSA polled 704 Texans who have already voted or said they are likely to vote.   The margin of error is +/-3.8%, so the poll very nearly shows a statistical dead heat.

    Still, voters in North Texas seem to be pouring into the Obama camp. Since our last poll one week ago, Obama has gained 4 points and Clinton has lost 5. Clinton held a two-point lead among locals, and Obama leads 57% to 38%.

    "We were just overwhelmed by the level of support and the amount of people from Dallas that came to see him," said Debbie Mesloh, a spokesperson for the Obama campaign. "He's going to come back. Dallas is a crucial area for us and is incredibly important."

    The biggest change comes with Hispanic voters. A week ago, Senator Clinton had a 30 point lead, but now that lead is down to 13 points.

    Even among females in Texas, Clinton is losing her grip. She was up 27 points last week. her lead has now dwindled to 11 points among women voters.

    "We are focused this week on making sure people get to the polls to vote early. We're driving them, we're calling them and we're knocking on doors," said Jessica Santillo, a spokesperson for the Clinton Campaign.

    Among Republicans, the latest results show John McCain with a solid lead over Mike Huckabee, 56% to 32%.  SurveyUSA polled 484 likely and actual Texas Republican voters, and McCain leads by 24 points.

    McCain has increased his lead since our last poll, gaining 6 points.  Over the same timespan, Huckabee has lost 5.  The margin of error in the Republican poll is +/-4.5%.

    by maineiac on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:09:21 PM PDT

  •  For as crappy as a campaign as she has ran...

    Getting out the vote early in California was very smart.  

    Glad the Obama campaign plagiarized this.

    by kilgore2345 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:10:05 PM PDT

    •  Well, in the states

      where she showed up, she ran pretty good campaigns. Had she run those kinds of campaigns everywhere, we might be looking at a different picture right now. But fundamentally, that wasn't a money issue as much as her supporters would like to believe given that both candidates had about the same amount to spend going into super tuesday. Hillary just decided to give it to Penn and failed to mobilize the volunteer base.

      Now, I don't think she can stuff that genie back in the bottle no matter how well she changes her strategy in Texas, Ohio, and PA.

      by johnsonwax on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:25:22 PM PDT

      •  I have to agree with that

        she should have made a better presence in these other states.

        Hey maybe she should go to mississippi and shake things up there what do you think?

        by ldog1970 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:36:32 PM PDT

        •  I think her time has passed. n/t

          by johnsonwax on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:43:27 PM PDT

          •  Anybody

            who quotes that diehard repulican crook Falwell.  Has no say with me.

            It's ok though i garantee Falwell got his in the end just like a lot of others will!!

            by ldog1970 on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 01:57:21 PM PDT

    •  california does not have early voting

      they have absentee ballots that a lot of people like to use for convenience.  BUT unlike floridians who started mailing their ballots in DECEMBER, california absentee ballots went out the day after new hampshire and most voted between nh and nevada, the best time for the clinton campaign. however, no one in CA can claim that they voted before they even knew who BHO was because this was AFTER iowa.

      early voters tend to be older retired people who ALWAYS  
      vote and the fact that its close among early voters is a good sign for senator obama

      by maxnyc on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:25:44 PM PDT

      •  yes, you're right nt

        by maineiac on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:27:47 PM PDT

  •  The issue with early voting

    When the polls close in Texas, the first results out will be the early vote results.  It will likely come out as a large "percent reporting" as well.  Whichever candidate wins that "first result" reporting gains a leg up in the media reporting.  Both sides want people going to bed having heard that they are "winning", especially "winning big".

    by noice on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:43:37 PM PDT

    •  by the time they go to bed

      shouldn't there be final, 100% counted (or at least like 97%) numbers? Or is Texas just so big it'll take them a few days to count?

      by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:50:24 PM PDT

      •  Depends

        Perhaps not "go to bed" but "change the channel".

        There are no races further west to keep people watching, many stop watching once more than a small percent of the vote is in.  20% in, and attention wanders.

        by noice on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 09:04:16 PM PDT

        •  hmm...wow

          I can't stop watching till 115% is in. But alas, that's the pathology of a political junkie.

          by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 09:08:12 PM PDT

•  When is

  the next time a SUSA poll will come out for Ohio?

  by LiberalBill04 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:07:06 PM PDT

  •  Doesn't Matter...

    I live in Cleveland.  I know Ohio.  He has made gains, but I don't think he can make it up.  I would love for the Buckeye state to deal the final blow to the HRC campaign, but it will probably be Tejas.

    by EntrWriter on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:09:33 PM PDT

    •  Being a Clevelander myself,

      I'd have to agree with you.  I'm confident that we can narrow the gap, but I don't think we'll finish it off.  Why is it that Ohio has to keep screwing things up?

      Anyways, us student campus coordinators just had a conference call with Obama yesterday.  Compared to other campaigns that I've worked on (granted, there haven't been all that many since I'm still a student) it's incredible that he actually does not seem to take his supporters and his volunteers for granted.

      Are you going to be at the pre-Debate rally tomorrow?

      by LiberalBill04 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:13:52 PM PDT

      •  Keep it close!

        You can do it!

        by jordans11 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:18:24 PM PDT

        •  Believe me,

          we're working on it :)

          by LiberalBill04 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:19:40 PM PDT

          •  Can the debate change things?

            if Hill goes all nasty and Obama looks like a growup?

            by jordans11 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:22:59 PM PDT

            •  Very well could be.

              I'd hate for her to go negative and end up hurting Obama's chances in the GE, but if she implodes, who knows?

              It's extremely disappointing that the major party folks in OH (Strickland especially) have gotten behind Hillary.

              by LiberalBill04 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:24:38 PM PDT

              •  "Meet me in Ohio!"

                She's got to come out guns blazing because she thinks she may be able to win this still.

                I have a feeling he's going to make her look petty.  Anyway--- doesn't matter at this point, just keep doin' what you're doin, it seems to be working ;)

                by jordans11 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:26:08 PM PDT

                •  For her to come out guns blazing

                  would not be a surprise in any way at this point, considering what's she's been doing for the past two days.  To be completely honest, I never really held negative feelings toward Senator Clinton until she exploded at him after being "honored" to be with him at the debate, and mocked him and his supporters.  I found that offensive and hypocritical.

                  by LiberalBill04 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:29:16 PM PDT

                  •  I have to say

                    you act as though Obama hasn't said a harsh word about the woman.

                    Hell she had to walk over to him before the damn debate to say hi.  He sure wasn't going to do it.

                    Those fliers are the exact opposite of what Obama has been out here trying to get you all to beleive in.

                    Ok, forget that.  Anybody here give me one good solid peice of proof that Obama is going to fix or do away with NAFTA?  That he will actually take on the lobbiest in washington to bring more jobs back to Ohio and the rest of this country.

                    The man voted present 150 times in the illinios senate.  Do you know what that means?  That's 150 peices of legislation that for one reason or another he didn't like and instead of taking a stand on them he saved face.

                    He caved on his nuclear policy that he introduced no less because the nuclear ceo's thought it was to harsh.

                    He didn't vote for a cap on credit card intrest because he thought it was to high(good thing).  However; instead of doing anything he left it lying there.  Thank god Hillary and John Edwards along with other Dems had the guts to vote for it.  Even though it didn't make them look too good in the eye's of the credit card companies.  

                    We could be looking at 90 percent intrest on credit cards if they all took Obama's stand.

                    I'm not saying Hillary hasn't had some moments she has,but when the chips start to fall she isn't going to run away to save poitical face.

                    Just think about it that's all i'm asking.  Maybe do some research of your own.  Republicans are definetly ready for Obama if he is the nomine.

                    They will destroy him in the general.  I'm already hearing some of it just today.  I'd link it to you if i knew how still new here.  I haven't figured it all out yet.

                    by ldog1970 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:53:48 PM PDT

                    •  Right

                      Because Hillary supporters are the only informed voters.  She isn't going to run away to save political face.  She has been doing that her whole political career.  What do you call her vote on Iraq?

                      by hn on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:56:35 PM PDT

                      •  Iraq?

                        Do you even know what that vote was actually for?  Based on your comment i don't think so.

                        That vote was to put the U.N. inspectors back in Iraq to assess Sadam's nuclear and biological capabilities.  The authorization of force was just a small part of that bill.  Nobody told her or the other Dems that bush was going to pull out the inspectors who were telling him "AIN'T NOTHING HERE"!!  So that he could bomb them.

                        At least Hillary was in the senate and talking to everybody she could.  Doing her own research trying to make sure this was not a rush to war.  THEY WERE ALL LIED TO BY BUSH AND CHENEY.  Do you really think that if Hillary or any other Dems knew what his intentions were they would have voted that way?

                        Meanwhile; Obama was in Chicago making a stump speech basically.  Good speech, but typical of him running his mouth when there is no pressure on himself.  Have you forgotten that he has voted excatly like Hillary and other Dems every time the funding bill for that war comes up?  He sits there and tells people he will make a stand for us and our troops.  Yet votes just the opposite behind closed doors.

                        Why?  TO SAVE POLITICAL FACE PERIOD!!!

                        So apperently; yes i am much more informed than you are.

                        by ldog1970 on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 02:11:39 PM PDT

                    •  Present votes in the Illinois Senate can actually

                      Present votes in the Illinois Senate can actually stop a legislation from being passed. Because the majority needed includes ALL votes, not just nay and yea. The rules are different from the ones in the US congress. So voting present actually serves a purpose.
                      You can track the NYTimes article on that written by some former IL Senator.
                      Those 150 present votes out of thousands of votes he made all served a purpose. Most of the time to signal an opposition to something in the legislation that wasn't fundamental but that needed to be rewritten or addressed.

                      So stop this smear that he somehow is lazy on uncommitted to his work as a legislator. That's is cheap and untrue. (Same applies to a lot of you other statements..., but I will leave it to others to counter them)

                      by magatte on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 10:50:03 PM PDT

                    •  I strongly suggest...

                      You research Illinois civics before going here.  Most of the present votes were strategic.  You shouldn't assume that he didn't want to take a stand.

                      by EntrWriter on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 09:39:39 AM PDT

                      •  My point exactly

                        Couldn't have said it better myself.  HE DIDN'T WANT TO!!!  

                        by ldog1970 on Tue Feb 26, 2008 at 02:13:47 PM PDT

              •  Well..

                ..how many mayors in Ohio endorsed him today?  Three plus the former mayor, that WAS backing Clinton?  Teamster, SEIU, UNITE HERE.. and I really think John Edwards.  Anyone notice how he's going to be working with Moveon.org/SEIU/VoteVets to end the war?

                by Setrak on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:28:28 PM PDT

      •  Disappointing

        I really want this to end on March 4 and, if he wins Ohio and Texas, there would be no question.

        by hn on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:20:26 PM PDT

      •  Actually

        if these trends continue I suspect that a number of HRC supporters will not come out to vote -- why vote for someone who is sinking?  So take everything with a grain of salt as it is only those who actually show up to vote, not polls, that determines who wins.

        by True Independent on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:40:05 PM PDT

        •  Not only that, I understand that the they can

          only poll those who've voted before, so, first time voters are not represented in these poll results.

          And, I further understand that MANY more first time voters are voting for Obama.

          More reason to be hopeful--NO reason to be complacent.

          :-)

          by Samwoman on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 09:02:55 PM PDT

      •  Hope someone is checking the voting machines...

        in Ohio....there were some emmmmmmmm problems last time.  

        Keep up the great work !!!!!!!!!!

        by Badabing on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:41:27 PM PDT

        •  Electronic voting machines worry me

          But one of my poly sci professors is convinced that it is much more difficult to hack into a voting machine rather than stuff a box with ballots.  I guess he doesn't put much thought into who is running the voting machine companies, not to mention the possibility of malfunction.

          by LiberalBill04 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:46:56 PM PDT

      •  I am a journalist, LiberalBill

        While I can express my opinions here, I generally cannot attend political rallies.  I'll confess to breaking that rule this past Saturday because it was an assignment for my son's social studies class. ;)

        by EntrWriter on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 09:06:01 PM PDT

•  HRC's a wounded wildcat

  Nothing to turn your back on. Polls win nothing. They're a bunch of phone calls. Lose your focus and you can still get mauled on the 4th.

  by moon in the house of moe on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:07:40 PM PDT

  •  exactly

    Everybody make more calls! They seem to be working!

    by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:08:40 PM PDT

    •  Bleeding poll numbers, teeth bared

      looking for ANY opening, for us to let down our guard even a little, hyper-alert, facing the death of her run, considering any and all options to avoid a crushing humiliating route. Just when you think you have her, befuckingware. She is soo dangerous right now.

      by moon in the house of moe on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:15:45 PM PDT

  •  wildcat = sexist comment

    by bluestatedude on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:24:28 PM PDT

    •  Arizona Wildcats

      Kentucky Wildcats, a million high schools name Wildcats...all sexist.

      by kilgore2345 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:27:03 PM PDT

      •  No more wildcat

        strikes.

        by wader on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:43:53 PM PDT

        •  That's the other one!

          Thanks.

          by kilgore2345 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 09:10:45 PM PDT

    •  Really? What about a wouded bear? or possum? no

      Possums just roll over and play dead, so that's not right either.

      by jeff in nyc on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:29:42 PM PDT

      •  Or a Pissed off Pootie Piranha ?

        Obama will be his confident quiet and statesman like self in the debate. I think he sprays himself with his favorite after shave before debates. Its called: Cool  As A Cucumber.  

        I say Bring it on, and get it over with.

        by Badabing on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:51:48 PM PDT

    •  Baloney

      by internationaljock on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:39:57 PM PDT

    •  could be either sex

      by moon in the house of moe on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:48:35 PM PDT

    •  hardly

      it's a common expression used as a metaphor to describe someone, anyone, backed into a corner.

      Examples readily found here and here.

      Amusingly enough, the book title of the first link there is called Danger Along the Ohio.

      by teedz on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:55:52 PM PDT

•  Jeez at least quote the actual poll results

  When you post a diary

  1. Make it worth our while to read, not just a teaser for clicking to another article

  2. In this case, actually post the polling results

  3. I have a feeling that this would end up on the front page (i.e. I think Kos knows about this) so probably no need to do a diary!

  4. Pie

  by jgkojak on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:07:53 PM PDT

  •  I updated the results about a minute after

    I posted, because I was looking for the link. I heard the results on the radio first.

    by scimitar on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:10:08 PM PDT

•  There's more

  Here's the article from the KTVT website:  

  In a new poll conducted for CBS 11 News and 1080 KRLD, Barack Obama has moved ahead of Hillary Clinton among Texas Democrats.

  The new figures show Obama with 49% and Clinton with 45%. SurveyUSA polled 704 Texans who have already voted or said they are likely to vote.   The margin of error is +/-3.8%, so the poll very nearly shows a statistical dead heat.  

  Still, voters in North Texas seem to be pouring into the Obama camp. Since our last poll one week ago, Obama has gained 4 points and Clinton has lost 5. Clinton held a two-point lead among locals, and Obama leads 57% to 38%.

  "We were just overwhelmed by the level of support and the amount of people from Dallas that came to see him," said Debbie Mesloh, a spokesperson for the Obama campaign. "He's going to come back. Dallas is a crucial area for us and is incredibly important."

  The biggest change comes with Hispanic voters. A week ago, Senator Clinton had a 30 point lead, but now that lead is down to 13 points.

  Even among females in Texas, Clinton is losing her grip. She was up 27 points last week. her lead has now dwindled to 11 points among women voters.

  "We are focused this week on making sure people get to the polls to vote early. We're driving them, we're calling them and we're knocking on doors," said Jessica Santillo, a spokesperson for the Clinton Campaign.

  The Hispanic vote is also leaving the Clinton camp.  If these numbers hold, it really is over.

  by oxfdblue on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:08:26 PM PDT

  •  Quote of the night

    "...Clinton is losing her grip."

    This is true in so many ways!

    by mhtims on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:32:56 PM PDT

  •  oh, nice

    In a new poll conducted for CBS 11 News and 1080 KRLD, Barack Obama has moved ahead of Hillary Clinton among Texas Democrats.

    mmmm, so how which way are the indies & repubs going? :-)

    by soros on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:47:39 PM PDT

  •  looks like he's ahead by .2%

    if you take the MOE into account. Good news, but far from definitive. I'm happy, but still worried....

    by betson08 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 09:17:35 PM PDT

•  can u please post the actual new poll numbers

  as well as the early voting numbers...i think the link is overwhelmed right now..thnx

  by maxnyc on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:08:47 PM PDT

  •  ok...thnx n/t

    by maxnyc on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:09:47 PM PDT

  •  49 Obama, 45 Clinton

    by maineiac on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:10:09 PM PDT

    •  full news story above

      See my post higher up - it's the full story, although it doesn't give the early voting numbers. Maybe we can get those soon.  The server is overwhelmed.

      by maineiac on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:11:19 PM PDT

•  Crosstabs?

  The link seems to be down.

  by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:09:40 PM PDT

  •  This was the one everyone waited for

    Survey USA is the gold standard, so if they say Hillary is down, she's down.

    I imagine everyone wanted the crosstabs at once.

    by andgarden on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:12:20 PM PDT

    •  Crashing SurveyUSA

      Says something that so many people are online at 11pm Eastern trying to check a poll site to crash their site.  I would be fascinated to know what their traffic numbers are.

      by evcoren on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:42:04 PM PDT

  •  Some Interesting Crosstabs

    Clinton leads among the 25% who have already voted, 51-46.  Huge gender gap--Obama leads among men 57-35 and Clinton leads among women 53-42.  Also big age gaps, with Obama leading big among 18-34 and 35-49 year olds, basically splitting the 50-64, and Clinton with massive 68-28 lead among those 65+ years old.  Hispanics (28%) and Whites (47%) are almost identical breaking 52-39 and 56-39 for Clinton, respectively (yes, Clinton is doing better among whites than Hispanics).  Blacks (21%) go for Obama 85-13.  Clinton has narrow 49-47 lead among Democrats (74%) and Obama has large leads among Republicans and Independants.

    by Sicembears on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:37:44 PM PDT

•  I think SurveyUSA's website is down!

  talk about traffic!

  by rapcetera on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:09:47 PM PDT

  •  I've been waiting for an hour!

    It gets to be 8 o clock and then BAM it's gone!

    by jordans11 on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:13:25 PM PDT

  •  Yeah, it's a pity.

    I was trying to find a recent Ohio poll.

    by bhagamu on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:15:18 PM PDT

  •  Seems back now (nt)

    by kenboy on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:55:29 PM PDT

•  Does Hillary's campaign

  release the numbers attending her rallies, or only the super-delegates that attend?

  by Krum on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:09:48 PM PDT

  •  Enough with the big rallies and speeches!

    /snark

    by Over the Edge on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:17:32 PM PDT

    •  and no more WORDS!!!!!!

      by bawbie on Mon Feb 25, 2008 at 08:18:18 PM PDT

      •  Stop hoping!!! Settle for Hillary!

        Life sucks, you can't change anything, so you better