Rasmussen: Clinton 46 / Obama 40

Rasmussen joins every other poll showing strong Obama momentum in the last hours before Super Tuesday voting begins, with a 5-point swing towards Obama from yesterday's rolling average. This is the highest Obama has ever registered in this poll.

Additionally, Rasmussen Markets now has both Clinton and Obama shares trading at approximately 50 each.

Full numbers for both parties after the jump.

Rasmussen Polls
Democrats
  Clinton 46 (49)
  Obama   40 (38)

Republicans
   McCain  33 (33)
   Romney  30 (29)
   Huckabee 22 (21)

Rasmussen Intrade
   2008Dem.Nod.Obama  47
   2008Dem.Nod.Clinton 51

•  But she's still winning...

  So we need to expect her to win tomorrow while working hard against that "inevitability."

  http://www.dailykos.com/...

  by VirginiaDem on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:10:07 AM PDT

  •  I agree....boots on the ground, folks!

    by slinkerwink on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:11:02 AM PDT

  •  I agree

    But I'm excited about the Omentum. Rasmussen was one of the few pollsters still showing a big Clinton lead with no O-Mo.

    by Jaiwithani on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:11:33 AM PDT

  •  re

    Agreed. She is going to win.

    But if she wins by less then 150(?) or so delegates, she loses...

    by cookiesandmilk on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:11:57 AM PDT

    •  re

      How Rumsfieldian of me. I know.

      by cookiesandmilk on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:12:27 AM PDT

    •  Proportional Allocation

      will make 150 a lot of ground to make up with few big states left.

      GOTV 2/5 for sure.

      by xopher on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:15:22 AM PDT

      •  I don't think she'll lead by that much.

        But the promary calendar does favor him throughout the balance of februray.  Look for him to add an additional 40 or so delegates over any deficit he has by the beginnning of March.

        by snout on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:25:59 AM PDT

        •  He should kill on 2/12

          Maryland, VA, DC will go heavy for Obama.

          by nightsweat on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:31:55 AM PDT

  •  Everyone needs to Rec VirginiaDem's diary

    Need to set expectations properly everyone!

    by grasstank on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:13:41 AM PDT

  •  If you need encouragement, take a longer view...

    or look at the movement in California.

    From the perspective of two months--Dec 4 to Feb 4--Obama has gone from also-ran to neck-and-neck.  This has been largely due to movement in Obama's numbers, not Hillary's, and has included a disproportionate swing from supporters of other candidates, black voters beginning to believe that a black candidate could win, a still-growing youth movement, and nationwide recognition that Obama has started a Movement.

    Anything but a conclusive loss by Obama on Feb 5 will just confirm all of those changes in the electorate, and keep that momentum going into my state, Washington, on Feb 9th--where Obama is leading the Democratic race.

    BTW, the news this morning is that RON PAUL is leading among Republicans here!!!  Mwahahahaha!

    by oscarsdad on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:39:39 AM PDT

•  People really need to stop reading so much

  into daily tracking polls.  A week ago, the site was going crazy because Obama had closed the gap to three points in Rasumessen.  Three days ago, Clinton had a 6 point lead, which then grew to 11, and is now back at six.

  Changes in a daily tracking poll usually represent the limits of small samples rather than momentum.

  by Partially Impartial on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:15:04 AM PDT

  •  I agree to some extent.

    The MOE represents the limits due to sample size.  The changes in a daily tracking poll include this imprecision, PLUS any difference between the set of people polled and the rest of the nation.

    THOSE differences aren't taken into account in any way except by comparing different polls--and to the extent that pollsters share information about how to collect a representative poll, the set of polls fails to represent a part of these differences, too.

    In plainer language, the differences from day to day in tracking polls reflect problems with the pollsters' MODELS, which aren't easy to account for no matter what you do.

    by oscarsdad on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:45:51 AM PDT

•  Friday was the big Clinton day

  Hillary's number skyrocketed on Friday (18 point lead for Clinton that day I think). But since then Obama has probably tied or even led her. The odd Friday blip recedes and Obama's numbers head up. Gallup, by the way, had the same pro-Clinton bump on Friday that was eliminated by a HUGE jump for Obama on Saturday. If Rasmussen had a poll out tomorrow it would show a dead even race or maybe an Obama lead.

  by Elrod on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:15:37 AM PDT

•  On the Republican Side

  The McCain dip (can't really call it a Romney surge) is pretty interesting. I wonder if the Limbaugh offensive is getting a little traction.

  In any case, see my sig!

  by Natural Anthem on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:16:13 AM PDT

  •  LOL--The McCain dip

    Is that a dance move, or something to put on chips?

    Or maybe it's a dunce political operative?

    by oscarsdad on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:47:24 AM PDT

    •  What's got me concerned

      is the possibility of a McCain double dip.

      According to a Clemson University study, it spreads germs.

      And of course the final word on double dipping comes from a classic Seinfeld:

      "that's like putting your whole mouth right in the dip."

      by Natural Anthem on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:57:22 AM PDT

•  I predict Obama...

  because the flip I just did came up heads.  It seemed as accurate as any way to predict tomorrows outcome.

  by filmgeek83 on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:19:44 AM PDT

  •  That makes Hillary 'tails'?...

    Backs-up slowly to avoid the flames...

    by RichM on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:25:58 AM PDT

  •  Given recent polls, toss of a fair coin is a

    reasonable predictor.

    But what are you trying to predict, winner of the popular vote, or delegate count?  Because as seen in Nevada, they aren't necessarily the same.  And across multiple states, they are even less the same.

    by oscarsdad on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:42:03 AM PDT

•  Ignore these polls. THERE'S WORK TO BE DONE.

  I sense growing complacency and even smugness. We can't have that now.

  Took a lot of work to get here. Never stop.

  Do what you can today and tomorrow.

  Go Obama!

  by chicago DEM on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:20:48 AM PDT

  •  One man's complacency is another's goad to action

    ...as in, Obama's supporters' complacency is a Hilary supporter's goad to action, and

    Clinton supporters' complacency for the general election would be the Republicans' goad to action.

    Did I mention I agree with you?

    by oscarsdad on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:49:58 AM PDT

•  Rasmussen also shows

  Obama up in California

  by Moonwood on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:27:01 AM PDT

•  It is a horse race..maybe a photo finish..

  Which will make tomorrow interesting, or not. Everytime I think it will be a close one, it ends up being a blowout one way or the other.. I wouldn't be shocked to see that happen, but it would be fun to see some close finishes tomorrow.

  by bdr4981 on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:27:47 AM PDT

•  In my Opinion

  Obama wins on Super Tuesday even if he is behind in the National Polls by 5 points or less.  The reason for this is quite simple.  Due to Hillary's name recognition, she is consistenty ahead in states until Obama gets a chance to run ads and campign in those states.  So it stands to reason, that Hillary would run better in the 25 states that Obama has not campaigned in.  

  National Polls mean nothing other than to show momentum.  

  by Boston on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:32:33 AM PDT

•  weekends skew older

  I was expecting Hillary's weekend bump and the shift back this morning. If Rasmussen's pattern holds true, Barack will pull closer in tomorrows results that will be reported tomorrow as the weekend numbers rotate out.

  real news would have been good numbers for Barack yesterday or bad ones today.

  by Bobeau on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:41:02 AM PDT

  •  Weekend?

    Today's result is all weekend - Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. It should therefore be the most pro-Clinton of the polls.

    More likely culprit is noise.

    by Jaiwithani on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:57:36 AM PDT

    •  ok

      I agree we are looking at Fri/Sat/Sun numbers. Fri and Sat famously skew older (which could explain Clintons good report yesterday), but I have to admit I have a hard time justifying Sun replacing Thurs and leading to a good report for Obama.

      anecdotally, I would guess that its easier to reach younger voters on Sun than Thurs (a bigtime party night), but I am not aware of any rule of thumb.

      Noise is of course a far more likely explanation as you say.

      by Bobeau on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 03:29:46 PM PDT

•  Closing that gap...

  Heard Hillary was crying yet again today... maybe she's seeing these polls too?

  What a baby.

  by kubrick2008 on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:48:16 AM PDT

  •  Ah, feel the unity

    feel the hope, the change, it's all over you, man.

    by skohayes on Mon Feb 04, 2008 at 08:54:42 AM PDT