Dem v. Repub turnout: THE BIG STORY

Great omens for November!

Total Dem turnout is running way ahead of total Repub turnout in all the swing states, and -- amazingly! -- even in some southern states.

Details below the fold.

In Missouri, which last voted for a November loser in 1956, total turnout yesterday was 820,000 Dems, 585,000 Repubs.

In Georgia -- Georgia! -- total turnout was 1,041,000 Dems, 953,000 Repubs. I live in the Atlanta suburbs. I never thought Georgia would go for a Democrat in November again in my lifetime. Looks like I'm gonna be wrong . . . at least if Obama is the nominee. (In the south, and maybe elsewhere, I assume most of the upsurge in Dem voting is accounted for by young Obama voters, independent Obama voters, and African-American Obama voters. If you think I'm wrong, comment away.)

Minnesota -- hold onto your hats -- 202,000 Dems, 59,000 Repubs. Open caucuses on both sides -- but a greater than 3-to-1 advantage for Dems!

Alabama: 533,000 Dems, 551,000 Repubs. This one stays red, but not by much.

South Carolina was 530,000 Dems, 441,000 Repubs. One of the reddest states in the country!

New Hampshire was 282,000 Dems, 232,000 Repubs.

Iowa . . . Iowa . . . hey, I have to go to work! Somebody please find the Iowa numbers and post them in the comments. I'm sure I remember us being way ahead.

The tea leaves look favorable! Love those goat entrails! Woooohooooo!

All numbers above from CNN as of about 8:30am today -- a few precincts still to report in some states.

•  Iowa Numbers

  Dems 227,000
  Reps 120,000

  by B P Pgh on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:16:01 AM PDT

•  Very telling. n/t.

  by jamaicanblood on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:18:44 AM PDT

•  Turnout numbers

  were all I was really looking at last night. Who cares which Dem "won" Missouri? The delegates are awarded proportionally. The turnout numbers were the real story. And guess what? It has a happy ending for Democrats.

  by hazzcon on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:25:28 AM PDT

•  Georgia

  2004- 629,728 democratic votes (according to Georgia state web site
  2008- 671,158 votes counted at this time for Obama

  by crazyshirley2100 on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:28:35 AM PDT

•  Obama Lost to Clinton in Massachusetts

  But he got more votes than all the Republicans combined:

  As of 9:30 a.m.:

  Clinton 695,899
  Obama 507,329

  Romney 250,575
  McCain 201,245
  Huckabee  20,047
  Paul  12,959
  Giuliani   2,604

  by hockeyrules on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:37:17 AM PDT

•  another case to be made for Obama

  I think Obama gives the Democrats the first legitimate shot at winning southern states in decades. Not a certainty by any means, but with Hillary I doubt there's even a chance.
  You cannot deny that he is energizing first time voters like we haven't seen in a long time, and that's what we need.
  I am not a Hillary fan, but I won't demonize her, she has done much to be admired, but with McCain as the Republican, I truly believe that she is in the worse position to beat him. Her "experience" argument, which is her most effective weapon against Obams means nothing against McCain.
  I listen to a lot of talk radio and I can't tell you how many self identified Republicans I've heard who are actually taking a long look at Obama, and who would never, under any circumstance vote for Hillary. You add that to the numer of Dems, many on this site, who have pledged that they would vote for McCain instead of her and it frightens me.
  My worst case scenario is that Obama wins the delegates decided in the primaries, but not by enough to get the nomination, and the Super delegates give it to HRC at the convention.
  That would discourage all those first time Obama voters and cement the already strong anti-Hillary sentiment in the party.

  by fat old man on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:42:58 AM PDT

  •  I think the superdelegates will fall in line.

    (a) They want to win.

    (b) If we lose, they don't want to be blamed.

    by HeyMikey on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:40:35 AM PDT

•  And this is what it's all about...

  ...Hillary, Obama, whatever.  A box of rocks could beat the Republican nominee (seeing as we have already had a trained monkey as president for the last 8 years.  And I use the word "trained" with some trepidation...)  So please, peeps, no more hyperbole along the lines of, "If (fill-in-the-blank) wins, say hello to President McCain!!!", because it innn't gonna hap'n....

  by Ken in MN on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 06:47:00 AM PDT

  •  I'm not so sure.

    Sure, some of the increased Dem participation is due to revulsion at Dubya and the GOP. But I suspect a lot of it is Obama driving up Dem turnout for African-Americans, young voters, and independents. If Hillary is the nominee, a lot of folks who would turn out for Obama will stay home instead.

    The Dem base will turn out for Obama just as much as for Hillary.

    by HeyMikey on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 10:44:48 AM PDT

•  I was watching the same thing

  And terribly proud of Missouri Dems for getting out and doing their job.  This is encouraging.  I think it's not as telling as it seems at first glance, because I suspect a lot of elephant lovers are staying at home because there's no (R) candidate that they're beholden to.  They'll go out and punch their straight ticket in November regardless.  Still, it's very good to see the Democratic turnout in the south!

  by ShowMe Indie on Wed Feb 06, 2008 at 07:21:10 AM PDT