The Betting Money's Now On Obama

So, not just the money of $750,000+ individual donors, making average donations of about $100 each, but the big online betting money too?

I'm not a betting man.  But I have given my $106.02 to the next president of the United States, Barack Obama.

Looks like this is only the second time that Obama has been shown the wager-leader.  The last time was the day before the NH Primary.  I know, I know, but he hung on for South Carolina, and won BIG.  Then he matched the Clinton-machine, delegate for delegate, vote for vote, and BEAT her on number of states.  AND, won some distinctively non-Dem regions, as well.

Finally, a clear indication of who actually WON on Tuesday.  You may scoff at this diary, but the people I trust to predict the primary outcome, are the ones putting their big money where their big mouths are.

As well, of course, the ones putting their little money where their big mouths are.............like me.

Caveats for the Clinton-lovers..........

Intrade markets, for those unfamiliar, are aggregations of public perceptions. They tell you not whether Obama or Clinton is more electable, but whether or not people think they are electable. And while a reliance on collective wisdom can often prove wrong (Obama, after all, was predicted on Intrade to win the New Hampshire primary), oftentimes it is right. In 2006, Intrade markets foretold every individual Senate race result, though its traders predicted the GOP would keep the Senate.

•  tips for a marginally worthless diary?

  by AlyoshaKaramazov on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:25:38 PM PDT

  •  Strangely enough UK bookies have it the other

    way, HRC will be in the WH. I'll search for the links.

    by Asinus Asinum Fricat on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:28:49 PM PDT

    •  ah, thanks

      how are their histories for getting it right?

      by AlyoshaKaramazov on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:29:48 PM PDT

      •  Pretty accurate is their records, but you know,

        I have to take this with a grain of salt, like the polls.

        John Mc Cain   6/4
        Barack Obama   7/4
        Hillary Clinton 2/1
        Mike Bloomberg   25/1
        Mike Huckabee   40/1
        Ron Paul   66/1

        (as of today)

        by Asinus Asinum Fricat on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:33:51 PM PDT

        •  Another one, with link:

          http://www.online-betting-guide.co.u...

          by Asinus Asinum Fricat on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:38:36 PM PDT

        •  Bloomberg above Huck??

          Man, that's gotta piss off the Huckster.  Beaten by someone who ain't in the race, and won't be, now that McCain's the guy.

          by AlyoshaKaramazov on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:57:57 PM PDT

        •  So they have Obama as the favorite as well

          n/t

          by acerimusdux on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 01:04:15 PM PDT

          •  Yes, but at 7 to 4, HRC is 2 to 1.

            It means nothing really.

            by Asinus Asinum Fricat on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 01:19:14 PM PDT

  •  IEM

    Another market, the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) run by the University of Iowa, but for real money, had Obama shares at $.557 and Hillary at $.434. Hllary shares dropped $.15 after Super Tuedsay. Accounts holding shares of the Dem winner are paid $1.00 per share.

    by VClib on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:41:22 PM PDT

    •  that was my main point, yes

      that while we're trying to decide who won on Tuesday, the money-perception seems to be Obama did.

      by AlyoshaKaramazov on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 01:00:25 PM PDT

•  Not so fast...

  Rush limbaugh is hosting a fundraiser for Hillary: http://www.dailykos.com/...

  by Kunicks on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:30:05 PM PDT

  •  Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa?

    by AlyoshaKaramazov on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:30:29 PM PDT

  •  It's raining money, halleluja it's raining cash..

    From the abc news story about  her campaign not being in as much financial distress as they've said
    

    by darthstar on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:32:17 PM PDT

•  No more betting for me

  I took a bath on the super bowl.

  by Psychotronicman on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:30:33 PM PDT

  •  better than taking a bath

    IN the Super bowl.

    No curtain is big enough to hide the warbles.

    by AlyoshaKaramazov on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:59:01 PM PDT

•  Intrade

  Intrade markets foretold every individual Senate race result

  Only because the polls did as well.  Intrade is just gambling for people who read blogs (or whatever) and think that, therefore, they have some sort of unique, privileged information over the rest of us.  In fact, they simply have more money to blow.

  by cardinal on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:31:27 PM PDT

  •  simply not true

     I traded the Senate races last year and it is simply not true that the market predicted all the senate races results (specifically Webb)

     In addition, at what point in time are they saying these "predictions" were made? Often these markets are not very liquid and prices very widely. Are they talking about the day of the election? day before? What?

     I don't want to incurage people to gamble but for people who pay attantion and don't bet with there heart Intrade is the easiest place possible to steal money especially while the results are comming in. People react to early election results with 1% of the vote in and one candidate having a big lead as if it actually means something

     Man was Missouri fun tuesday

    by fabacube on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:47:55 PM PDT

•  yeah, i bought hillary futures after iowa...

  ...when the nervous nellies depressed the price lower than it is now. they were all crying after new hampshire :-)

  by campskunk on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:32:10 PM PDT

  •  I bought Obama during Tuesday night at 38

     when the silly people were thinking that it was a good HRC night (the day started at 50) and took some profit today

    by fabacube on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:53:22 PM PDT

•  I bet he can beat her too

  I've invested about $600 into his campaign.  More than I have really.

  A vote for Hillary is a vote for McCain.

  by kubrick2008 on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:37:29 PM PDT

•  He's the favorite now -- enjoy! n/t

  by Universal on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:38:13 PM PDT

  •  yeah, it changes daily

    it seems.  Happy that it's happening, though.

    by AlyoshaKaramazov on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 12:53:32 PM PDT

•  They also had Obama winning California

  On Super Tuesday, the ask for Hillary to win CA was only 29.60

  by acerimusdux on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 01:08:13 PM PDT