Daily Kos

Hillary Moves More than Half Way to the Prize

by DCDemocrat

Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:18:26 AM PDT

There's been a lot of smoke from the Obama campaign about how well Barack Obama did in "besting" Hillary in delegates on Super Tuesday, but truth always gets its day:

Delegates Won on Super Tuesday

Clinton 784
Obama 758

I learned fairly early in an excessively long education that 784 is greater than 758 by 30.  Let's put it plainly, Hillary won 30 more delegates than Obama.  (I do appreciate the breathtaking significance of Alaska, Utah, and Kansas, but I grew up in California and went to school in New York, so you can understand my bias about their importance.)

Current Overall Delegate Count

Clinton 1045
Obama 960

Since the nomination (without Michigan and Florida representation) requires 2,025 delegates, Hillary now has 52% of the delegates she needs to become our nominee while Barack has 47% of the delegate he needs.

Incidentally, CBS has Hillary at 1,058 and Obama at 984.  With these two metrics, the spread right now is somewhere between 74 and 85, fairly comparable results by AP and CBS.

Tags: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, 2008, elections, delegates (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

Permalink | 156 comments

  •  In either count, (16+ / 2-)

    Recommended by:
    al Fubar, Pacific John, jsmdlawyer, HarveyMilk, Norwegian Chef, penguins4peace, jmknapp, eleanora, doinaheckuvanutjob, Joelarama, anna shane, Owllwoman, ShaShaMae, domma, hillarygrrrl, JoeySky18
    Hidden by:
    blitz boy, vernonbc

    Hillary is now more than half way to the prize.

    Guess what. Kossacks continue to be very rude. I am for Obama, but I'm not a Kossack.

    by DCDemocrat on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:18:39 AM PDT

    •  139 Obama-leaning delegates yet to be counted, (22+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      MarcTGFG, underwhelm, Jonathan, Stevie, DelRPCV, dmsilev, CocoaLove, penguins4peace, westcott, Sol Fed Joe, Big Tex, Skaje, Inland, mbcarl, jct, blitz boy, scardanelli, MikePhoenix, gaiilonfong, jenontheshore, a wolf raised by boys, velvet blasphemy

      so says the article you've linked to:

      Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton held onto a relatively small lead over Sen. Barack Obama. However, there were still outstanding delegates to be awarded in Illinois and Georgia, where Obama fared well.

      A total of 1,681 delegates were at stake in 22 states and American Samoa. There were 139 still to be awarded.
      link

      Aren't you making the same mistake that you accuse others of doing when you claim "Hillary won 30 more delegates than Obama" as if the count given in the artilce were the official final+full count (your phrase "but truth always gets its day" suggests that you're convinced Clinton will lead in the final count of delegates from Feb'5th)?

      Before the full official count, all we have are estimates, and most of those estimates seem to show that when all is said and done, Obama may end up with a slight edge in the delegate count from super Tuesday. No?

      Just say NO to BAYH (for VP)! His war hawking is why!

      by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:35:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Today's NYT did a similar mistake: (2+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        Big Tex, NeuvoLiberal

        Turns out, the delegates from some of the states Obama did well in aren't OFFICIALLY awarded until later---but of course, you have to count the "pledged" superdelegates as if they were "officially" bound to vote for a certain candidate.

        Offshore Oil/NatGas is our Strategic Reserve. Save it for when the rest of the world runs out.

        by Inland on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:33:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  asdf (0+ / 0-)

          AFAIK, super delegates are allowed to change their mind, notwithstanding their pledges prior to getting to the convention. OTOH, also AFAIK, pledged delegates (i.e. those chosen by regular voters at primaries and causes) are bound to support their assigned candidate in the first round of voting at the convention (but are free to choose someone else in subsequent rounds).

          I am with Barack's view that whoever has more pledged delegates from contested primaries and caucuses should be the the nominee.

          Just say NO to BAYH (for VP)! His war hawking is why!

          by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:47:25 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  RIght, so the Times should have (1+ / 0-)

            Recommended by:
            NeuvoLiberal

            either counted only "officially" pledged delegates--leaving out the supers--or included both supers and the delegates yet to be officially certified.

            Including the supers as if they were bound and not including the delegates yet to be certified is the source of the error.  It's not a consistent method.

            Offshore Oil/NatGas is our Strategic Reserve. Save it for when the rest of the world runs out.

            by Inland on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:51:58 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  IMO, Obama campaign should (0+ / 0-)

              put out a memo to the media asking them to highlight pledged delegates. Everything else is fluid.

              Just say NO to BAYH (for VP)! His war hawking is why!

              by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:59:51 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  heh! that's what the race feels like. (2+ / 0-)

                Recommended by:
                al Fubar, NeuvoLiberal

                i started last summer, so it's eight months down and eight months to go in fighting for Hillary. the trouble with Pfloufe's transparent attempt to claim that his candidate won more delegates is that he released hit BEFORE NOON YESTERDAY, and New Mexico has quit counting overnight, to say nothing  of the other locations that were still counting. it was a bluff and everyone knew it.

                how does he expect to convince people to vote for his candidate by lying to them?

                gallup

                Hillary 2008 - Flying Monkey Squadron 283

                by campskunk on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 05:31:12 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Gaps: on 1/20 = 20%. In Feb'05 votes: 0.4% (0+ / 0-)

                  That alone shows who really won on Super Tuesday. Obama overcame whopping double digit deficits to pull into a draw by that day. Thanks for your comment exposing that fact (I am RECing it!).

                  Just say NO to BAYH (for VP)! His war hawking is why!

                  by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 05:35:54 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  yeah, he was supposed to put her away in NH (0+ / 0-)

                    see how it's close earlier in january? the data you cherrypicked (1/20) is the lead hillary built up when people saw he couldn't close the deal after winning iowa. she beat him in new hampshire. the widening lead she has over the past days will expand because obama once again shows on 2/5 that he can't close the deal. he had every resource he needed to put her away, and yet voters just aren't buying it.

                    Hillary 2008 - Flying Monkey Squadron 283

                    by campskunk on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 05:53:29 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  NH frenzy was media's creation. (0+ / 0-)

                      Obama campaign wasn't thumping it's chest about NH prospects. Obama was trailing by some 10-20% in Dec polls for NH, and by 4.5% in January polls before IA. He ended up losing by 2%, which was a strong showing.

                      "the widening lead she has over the past days will expand"

                      Keep dreaming and spinning :)

                      The gap widened in your own graph after NH and NV to 20% (he was faring even worse among Feb'5 states), but it was a flat out tie on election day, 2/5/08.

                      "because obama once again shows on 2/5 that he can't close the deal."

                      He did close the deal by pulling from 20% deficits into a tie.

                      "he had every resource he needed to put her away, and yet voters just aren't buying it."

                      Clinton came in with a 25% advantage from the name recognition she has had, but as of now, all told. Obama has polled more votes (popular votes) all contested races taken together, and probably more regular people chose pledged delegates as well (as should become clear once the dust settles on delegate counting process for Feb'5 states).

                      Obama is overcoming the dominating Clinton name recognition and the mighty Clinton machine, rather impressively.

                      Just say NO to BAYH (for VP)! His war hawking is why!

                      by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 06:08:53 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                  •  How is that a win ...? (0+ / 0-)

                    It wouldn't matter if he closed in from 40 points down - she held, instead of crumbling, and the tide will go out as it came in.

                    The best fortress is to be found in the love of the people - Niccolo Machiavelli

                    by al Fubar on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 06:18:47 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

        •  it's it amazing (0+ / 0-)

          that when Hillary gets real voters and real delegates she's mistaken. IF a tree fall in the forest and no one hears it, is she still wrong?  

          Hillary - Alternative Energy

          by anna shane on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 10:33:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  What a snide mean spirited diary. (2+ / 1-)

      Recommended by:
      JoelNH, Big Tex
      Hidden by:
      tomwatson

      nt

      He's not an African American candidate, he's and American candidate. - Jean Weiss on CNN

      by vernonbc on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:18:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Which delegates? Pledged? Super-delegates? (3+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      DelRPCV, Othniel, doinaheckuvanutjob

      It makes a huge difference exactly which delegates are being counted, which is partially why the various totals lack uniformity.

      • The following news orgs, meanwhile, are electing to present their current tally including super-delegates as they await ongoing returns. Done this way...

      • ABC finds that Hillary leads, 1,038-940.

      • CBS finds that Hillary leads 1,044 to 966.

      • The Washington Post finds Hillary leading 1,000 to 902.

      • And the Associated Press finds Hillary leading 845-765.

      But, then again, super-delegates can change. In which case it might be a good idea to factor them out.  And that yields different results.

      • NBC News has done projections based on yesterday's returns, and they are projecting that last night, once all the votes are counted and the delegates apportioned across the districts, Obama won with 840-849 delegates, against Hillary's 829-839 delegates.

      NBC concludes that Obama is winning in total pledged delegates, too: Obama has 903-912 delegates, and Hillary has 877-885. When super delegates are factored in, however, NBC finds that Hillary edges into a lead, with approximately 1,145 total versus 1,082 for Obama.

      • CNN's method is a bit different. They are not projecting delegate outcomes that haven't been fully determined. Rather, their numbers are based on where their current tallying stands now, as we await all the returns. Done this way, CNN says that Hillary and Obama are basically tied in pledged delegates, 625-624

      "You can't talk to the ignorant about lies, since they have no criteria." --Ezra Pound

      by machopicasso on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:22:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks (0+ / 0-)

        I have been trying to make some sense of the differences in the various accounts without success.  I appreciate the help.

        Now if I can only figure out how in the helll the Texas system (where I live) is suppossed to work, I'll have some chance of sleeping again.

        God and ego are not equivalent expressions of reality.

        by Othniel on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:31:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Go take a math class (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      DelRPCV

      your numbers are way way off, you forgot 139 delegates.

      People decide on Hillary, and then they find reasons why she is superior. They make up fake math, re-write her resume, talk about 35 years of experience, forget about all the welfare reform and nafta. You make the facts fit your beliefs.

      Private Property is the Curse. Those that Buy and Sell Land, and are landlords, have got it either by Oppression, Murder, or Theft

      by pacific ocean park on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:35:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't have any idea what the delegate count (0+ / 0-)

      will ultimately be...close. I will concede that she is still the most likely going to be the nominee in the end mostly because the DNC screwed up the Florida and Michigan thing so badly.

      But I fear you cheer for the demise of the Democratic Party.  Obama is right. Many will not vote for her who vote would vote for him. And the converse is not nearly as true. He doesn’t have her baggage.

      Personally I will not vote for anyone in any future election who wishes to be part of the problem rather that part of the solution on the critical issue of lobbyists and industry PACs. She, like Obama, could have responded positively to Edwards’ challenge to all Democratic candidates not to accept such filthy money, but she could not. She is a corporatist and it is neither in my economic best interest nor in the ecological best interest of my descendants to lend my support such candidates.

      For my entire life adult life I have watched Republicans and Republicans-lites ignore the needs of our People, in particular the need for ecological sanity for the sake our offspring, in favor of those evil institutions who fill their political coffers.  If I can help it, I will not see yet another generation of energized young change seekers disappointed the way we were in 1992.

      It is long past time for the Democratic Party to take a definitive stand.  Are we the Party of the People.....or just the other Party of the Corporacracy?  2008 will give me my definitive answer and I will act accordingly in order to restore my own integrity if nothing else.  

       

      by David Nichols on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:40:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I don't think you are reading (8+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    Big Tex, Skaje, mbcarl, blitz boy, CenterLeft, scardanelli, Mojo Jojo, jenontheshore

    The best estimates have Obama up by 4. Your estimates aren't accurate.

    by MrMichaelMT on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:19:40 AM PDT

  •  are you including... (2+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    penguins4peace, mbcarl

    ..the delagates from Florida and Michigan?  And how many of those delagates are super delagates who can change their mind any time they want to.

    We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

    by delver rootnose on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:26:51 AM PDT

  •  (not that it matters but) You're Wrong (4+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    penguins4peace, Skaje, blitz boy, Mojo Jojo

    by reformdem on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:28:09 AM PDT

  •  superdelegates. yawn. (6+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    jbdigriz, CocoaLove, mbcarl, blitz boy, scardanelli, FishBiscuit

    if Clinton uses superdelegates to "beat" obama at the convention, I will be marching in Denver.  You'll have 1968 again.

    Head to Heading Left, BlogTalkRadio's progressive radio site!

    by thereisnospoon on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:32:34 AM PDT

    •  As bad as that image is (2+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      Inland, scardanelli

      I'm almost certain it would never happen.  Clinton's temporary lead among superdelegates will dry up if Obama keeps leading pledged delegates.  The majority of superdelegates still haven't endorsed and are probably just going to vote for whoever is winning the most pledged delegates.  Even the ones who endorsed are free to change their mind at any point.  They know there will be hell to pay if they overturn the pledged delegate result, the uncommitted ones won't let it happen.

      by Skaje on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:04:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Lets assume Hillary wins the nomination (8+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    jbdigriz, CocoaLove, penguins4peace, westcott, Big Tex, Skaje, mbcarl, FishBiscuit

    with superdelegates, but loses the elected delegates not counting MI & FL.

    I think that causes a big legitimacy problem. Furthermore, I think the Obama movement will for the most part, abandon her.

    Then all the talk about Obama on the ticket as VP will start, which he will turn down if he's smart.

    This is one fucked up scenario. A candidate who can't win over independents and republicans and is forced to raise all her money from big money donors and her own wealth, compounded by a lack of netroots energy, little support from young people & african americans, AND who manages to unite the Republican party against her.

    There's a ton of superdelegates who are unpledged at this point, and I think they will consider this in their calculations. She is looking less electable with every loss. And there should be quite a few more losses over the next week or two, but I expect her to make a surprise stand in Virginia.

    With him from the beginning, with him until the end.

    by brooklynbadboy on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:32:35 AM PDT

    •  I agree that whoever is ahead on delegates (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      Othniel

      ought to get the nomination.

      But a threat to leave the party is no way to sway the superdelegates.

      And, alternatively, if we don't count superdelegates (i.e., change party rules in midstream) it seems to me we ought to count the delegates from Florida and Michigan.

      "To be afraid is to behave as if the truth were not true." -- Bayard Ruskin

      by Joelarama on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:47:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Oh but it IS the way to sway them. (3+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        CocoaLove, Skaje, mbcarl

        People mean something, and they should take that seriously. This party is going to have a LOT of new delegates who don't really give a shit what a bunch of party bigwigs think.

        Now if Clinton wins the elected delegate race fair and square, thats one thing. But if she wins it because of party insiders, fuck the Democratic party. Thats not in any way Democratic. Thats the Bush 2000 way of doing things.

        I think the insiders aren't crazy and wont risk it. They are going to wait and see who comes out ahead in elected delegates, and then endorse that person. Anything else would cause the party to fracture and rightly so.

        I still, however, think Clinton would have a harder time winning over Obama voters than vice versa.

        With him from the beginning, with him until the end.

        by brooklynbadboy on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:56:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, one of the points I was making is (0+ / 0-)

          that the "elected delegate race" perhaps should include the delegates from Florida and Michigan, especially if you are so willing to disregard the rules as set up in advance (i.e. superdelegates).

          Obama and Clinton both were part of the Party that set up things the way they are.

          I would lose all respect for anyone who used "my supporters will leave the Party" as a bargaining ploy.

          "To be afraid is to behave as if the truth were not true." -- Bayard Ruskin

          by Joelarama on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 05:26:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I see it differently (0+ / 0-)

      She's winning the popular vote by far.  Can't elect a Democratic candidate who can't win Democratic votes.  

      by middleagemom on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:51:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not by far, by 50,000 people. (3+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        underwhelm, DelRPCV, pletzs

        I know you'll find this unfortunate, but African-Americans have been long time and VERY loyal Democratic voters. Even when "Reagan Democrats" were voting with the other side, black folks remained loyal.

        Throw those votes away at great peril. Besides, the 50,000 popular vote margin (.4%) will be erased by Saturday.

        Then what?

        With him from the beginning, with him until the end.

        by brooklynbadboy on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:00:22 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  "Legitmacy problem"? Like Bush in 2000? (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      brooklynbadboy

      Like she'd care.  She's running to win the office, not lead the nation.  

      Offshore Oil/NatGas is our Strategic Reserve. Save it for when the rest of the world runs out.

      by Inland on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:37:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Hillary won all the big states (1+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    nycstray

    and she won the popular vote by nearly 100,000 and the popular vote more than anything is the will of the people.  Now Obama is tanking again in the polls, he is plunging in Gallup.

    Obama just thinks its about money.  Hillary knows its about endurance.

    GOOOOOOO HILLLLLLLARYYYYYYY!!!!

    I like the silence of a church, before the service begins better than any preaching. ~Ralph Waldo Emerson

    by Norwegian Chef on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:33:45 AM PDT

    •  100,000 (2+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      Skaje, blitz boy, Mojo Jojo

      100,000 being .04% of the popular vote on Feb 5th...

      by mbcarl on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:41:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  So what, 100,000 more people liked Hillary better (0+ / 0-)

        that is what real democracy is about. If 100,000 people like you more, you win!!

        Hillary= real democratic winner!!!

        And Hillary's half composed of lower and middle classes is not budging. This is class warfare, and the limousine liberals and whine and cheese crowd better get ready for a real street fight.  Because we are not a-budgin 1 inch!

        I like the silence of a church, before the service begins better than any preaching. ~Ralph Waldo Emerson

        by Norwegian Chef on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:48:10 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  No, you don't win that way in a Primary (2+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          Skaje, Mojo Jojo

          That candidates are trying to win delegates because that's what determines who the nominee will be.

          and Obama won.

          More delegates.

          by mbcarl on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:51:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Early voting = HUGE bias towards Clinton (0+ / 0-)

          Were everyone voting on the day of the election I suspect the results would be quite a bit different.

          He'll end the war, you know.

          by Soviet Canuckistan on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:57:14 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Limousine liberals? (1+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          Inland

          Some of you are really internalizing GOP soundbites.

          by Skaje on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:11:03 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Yes, the 85% of the African Americans are... (0+ / 0-)

          ...certainly all limousine liberals.

          If you think the terrorist fist jab is bad... you need to see his terrorist Hokey-Pokey.

          by JeffLieber on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:23:28 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  And that would be because why?? n/t (0+ / 0-)

            I like the silence of a church, before the service begins better than any preaching. ~Ralph Waldo Emerson

            by Norwegian Chef on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:28:06 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  How is that germane to the discussion? (0+ / 0-)

              You referred to Obama supporters as "limousine liberals" and given the fact that a HUGE chunk of his supporters are African Americans from say Georgia and college kids that seems like a fairly baseless claim, no?

              Can we just agree on that?

              If you think the terrorist fist jab is bad... you need to see his terrorist Hokey-Pokey.

              by JeffLieber on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:30:22 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  No! n/t (0+ / 0-)

                I like the silence of a church, before the service begins better than any preaching. ~Ralph Waldo Emerson

                by Norwegian Chef on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:30:56 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Wow. Well, best of luck to "your" Hillary. (0+ / 0-)

                  And don't look for back up when the other side makes equally baseless claims about your candidate.

                  If you think the terrorist fist jab is bad... you need to see his terrorist Hokey-Pokey.

                  by JeffLieber on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:32:05 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Our Hillary has all the backup she needs, (0+ / 0-)

                    100,000 more than Obama did on Super Tuesday, so don't fret yourself any.

                    I like the silence of a church, before the service begins better than any preaching. ~Ralph Waldo Emerson

                    by Norwegian Chef on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:34:24 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  (You realize that not the whole country VOTED... (0+ / 0-)

                      ...on Tuesday so that number is utterly irrelevant. She won in the largest populated states, so naturally her lead in the "vote" count will exist, but a partial sample of voters means nothing in a system decided by delegates. Or is Al Gore currently the President of the United States?)

                      Just cease and desist, at least with me. I'm not your enemy and in the end the state of the game NOW won't matter WHOMEVER wins.

                      If you think the terrorist fist jab is bad... you need to see his terrorist Hokey-Pokey.

                      by JeffLieber on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:38:43 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  As a Democrat and a democrat (0+ / 0-)

                        the will of the voters is paramount.  Al Gore did win then, as Hillary won Tuesday.  Gore surrendered the fight, rolled over and played opossum.  Our Hillary NEVER will.

                        I never said you were the enemy. This is pro-Hillary thread set up to celebrate Hillary, and you are simply raining on our parade, and I am playing an umbrella.  AND BTW ITS "WHOEVER WINS" NOT WHOMEVER WINS. ;-)

                        It may be a game to you, but its dead serious for us!

                        I like the silence of a church, before the service begins better than any preaching. ~Ralph Waldo Emerson

                        by Norwegian Chef on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:44:01 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  What did I say that rained on your parade? (0+ / 0-)

                          If you think the terrorist fist jab is bad... you need to see his terrorist Hokey-Pokey.

                          by JeffLieber on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:44:50 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                        •  False claim about Gore (0+ / 0-)

                          This is false: "Gore surrendered the fight, rolled over and played opossum."

                          Facts about FL'2K

                          1. Gore fought for 35 days: link.
                          1. The rightwing meme "Gore is/was cherry picking districts" is false. The Gore campaign asked the Bush campaign to join them in requesting a statewide recount which the latter refused. This link provides the details.
                          1. This CNN poll shows that 79% of Americans wanted Gore to concede should the SC ruling go against him. link.
                          1. After the verdict, likely signaling that the establishment was abandoning Gore, DNC Chair Rendell publicly called on Gore to concede: link.
                          1. Daschle and other senate Democrats had a power-sharing agreement with senate Republicans which was the reason that no Democratic senator signed on to join the CBC in challenging the certification of Florida's electoral college votes (contrary to some impressions seemingly left by Fahrenheit 9/11 movie's opening scene). excerpt.
                          1. Democrats.com analysis: Gore won Florida.

                          In fact, based on Ed Rendell (who was/is close to the Clintons) calling Gore to concede publicly (when he didn't and shouldn't have done that publicly), I suspect that the Clintons' support for Gore during the recount was lukewarm at best.

                          Just say NO to BAYH (for VP)! His war hawking is why!

                          by NeuvoLiberal on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 05:07:32 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

    •  Endurance? (2+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      Inland, saintsaetia

      Obama just thinks its about money.  Hillary knows its about endurance.

      Is that why she dumped 5 million of her own money into the race because she knows it's about endurance?

      "How can I go off and join FRELIMO, when I've got 9 more payments on the fridge?" Mrs. Conclusion Monty Python

      by Sansouci on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:13:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Can I ask why we're all engaging in this? (0+ / 0-)

      The cheerleading and the name calling?

      And the answer shouldn't be, "Well the other side is doing it as well!"

      We got a process and its going to have to play out, but "Obama just thinks its about money" sounds like my five year old in the back seat trying to process out what she hears on the radio.

      If you think the terrorist fist jab is bad... you need to see his terrorist Hokey-Pokey.

      by JeffLieber on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:16:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Congratulations to your 5-year-old!! (0+ / 0-)

        She sounds like he will certainly grow up to be a real winner, just like our Hillary!! ;-)

        GOOOOOOOOO HIIIILLLLLLLLARRRRRRYYYYYYY!

        I like the silence of a church, before the service begins better than any preaching. ~Ralph Waldo Emerson

        by Norwegian Chef on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:20:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  It's the contempt for Obama supporters. (1+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        Soviet Canuckistan

        Unlike hits on candidates, HRC supporters engage in hits on Obama supporters--naive, childish, starstruck.

        The commenter is simply attempting a parody of Obama supporters, because he thinks that being for a candidate is childish and over the top, and wants to mock them.  What used to be a virtue--motivated supporters liking the candidate--is now a vice, and the targets for contempt are democrats ("limosine liberal"), in Hllary's Bizarro World.  

        Offshore Oil/NatGas is our Strategic Reserve. Save it for when the rest of the world runs out.

        by Inland on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:41:39 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  It is interesting to note that (3+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    Othniel, eagle5, Lysis

    while Hillary Clinton's campaign has argued that the delegates from Michigan and Florida ought to be counted (it's unclear to me whether you are including those), Obama's campaign is now arguing that superdelegates ought not to be decisive.

    It seems to me it's pure politics, which is also to say, it's rather opportunistic.

    And, that's on both sides.  As it should be.

    I just don't want to see any whining about how the Party applied its rules, if it does come down to these factors.

    "To be afraid is to behave as if the truth were not true." -- Bayard Ruskin

    by Joelarama on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:35:03 AM PDT

  •  maybe it's just early (6+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    MarcTGFG, jbdigriz, penguins4peace, Skaje, mbcarl, blitz boy

    but did anyone else need to read this twice?

    I learned fairly early in an excessively long education that 784 is greater than 758 by 30

    ...and still not get it?

    by emptypockets on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:41:09 AM PDT

  •  DCDem, you can't use a partial count... (9+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    underwhelm, Skaje, Inland, mbcarl, blitz boy, MikePhoenix, pacific ocean park, Mojo Jojo, velvet blasphemy

    You account for only 1,542 of the 1,679 Feb 5 delegates.  The uncounted ones have been "won" but not officially certified.  When all 1,679 Feb 5 delegates are allocated, Obama (barely) won more delegates on Super Tuesday.

    by AZDem on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:46:00 AM PDT

  •  DCDemocrat calls Missouri for Hillary Clinton! (8+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    DelRPCV, Karen Wehrstein, Soviet Canuckistan, Skaje, mbcarl, pacific ocean park, Mojo Jojo, velvet blasphemy

    fivethirtyeight.com: electoral projections done right.

    by poblano on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:49:54 AM PDT

    •  She is currently ahead in MO, 40-39. 9 delgs left (0+ / 0-)

      The pledged delegate number is 36-36, as it seems that MO does not do county by county apportioning, which is fortunate for Obama (won 5 counties) and unfortunate for Clinton (won over 100 counties). Too bad, huh, they don't have the NV model which helped Obama.

      But HRC has 4 MO superdelegates so far. BHO 3.

      HRC is winning MO. 9 delegates left.

      BTW - Nice work on your ST predics, Poblano. MN & GA seem to have tilted the numbers towards you and away from me. Good job!

      I'm still hoping NM goes to HRC so I can go 21/22 in my state by state picks. We'll see. You can't win them all.

      thumbs up

      ABC hits home run in debate

      by Universal on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 05:06:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  True she's ahead, but . . . (1+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    mbcarl

    we all know she wanted to be ahead by much more after Super Tuesday.  Obama did well, Clinton did better.  So the race goes on . . .

    by middleagemom on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:50:30 AM PDT

  •  From your link: (5+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    DelRPCV, mbcarl, MikePhoenix, Mojo Jojo, velvet blasphemy

    "However, there were still outstanding delegates to be awarded in Illinois and Georgia, where Obama fared well."

    CNN is doing the same thing, leaving out delegates from states Obama did well in while keeping a deceptive total counter up.

    From your CBS link, a quick look at the breakdowns show them projecting Clinton gets 21 delegates in Alabama, to Obama's 20.  They have Clinton with 15 delegates in Missouri to Obama's 6.  They haven't assigned all of Obama's expected delegates yet.

    And it's not just Obama's camp estimating they won more delegates, from Chuck Todd at NBC, they predict Obama gets anywhere from 840 to 849 delegates, while Clinton wins around 829 to 838 delegates.

    You'll notice the Clinton camp is awfully quiet about this.  They know they narrowly lost the delegate race on Tuesday, it just hasn't all been counted yet by the networks.  The bottom line is, 1681 delegates are tied to the results of Super Tuesday, any Obama + Clinton total that doesn't equal that number is deceptive.

    by Skaje on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 03:56:39 AM PDT

  •  Not that this matters, but in fairness... (8+ / 0-)

    Recommended by:
    DelRPCV, CocoaLove, Skaje, Inland, NYContrarian, Mojo Jojo, a wolf raised by boys, velvet blasphemy

    ...the "missing" delegates (as stated by others) are delegates from Super Tuesday that are in states that Obama won, but have yet to be certified.

    Not even the Clinton campaign is claiming that they won the delegate count on Tuesday.

    In the end of the day Obama won a negligible delegate victory.

    HRC does hold a lead in Superdelegates, but there are 400+ outstanding Superdelegates, which dwarfs the number EITHER of them currently has and those will probably go, en masse, to whomever is winning the elected delegate count at the end of the day.

    Do with this as you wish.

    If you think the terrorist fist jab is bad... you need to see his terrorist Hokey-Pokey.

    by JeffLieber on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:09:59 AM PDT

    •  In essence (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      JeffLieber

      Superdelegates are irrelevant as far as totals go.  They're only useful when they can sway voters with early endorsements, or better yet use their mailing lists and staff to help the candidate's campaign.

      by Skaje on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:15:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's conceptually wrong to count (1+ / 0-)

      Recommended by:
      DelRPCV

      the superdelegates and yet not count the "uncertified" delegate totals.  The NYT should either count just hte legally bound candidates (Obama leading) or count based on the likely affiliation today (Obama leading).  

      Offshore Oil/NatGas is our Strategic Reserve. Save it for when the rest of the world runs out.

      by Inland on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:44:07 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Or at least indicate that there are still... (2+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        DelRPCV, a wolf raised by boys

        ...oustanding pledged delegates to be counted.

        But, yes, I agree.

        They are doing all, especially the diarist, a disservice with their wording.

        If you think the terrorist fist jab is bad... you need to see his terrorist Hokey-Pokey.

        by JeffLieber on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:49:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, it DID indicate it in the graph (1+ / 0-)

          Recommended by:
          JeffLieber

          in the paper edition I was reading...but I had to make a point of looking for it, which I did because I knew the CW at DK was that Obama had won more delegates and the NYT had Clinton winning a hundred more.

          It was hard to find.

          The diarist, of course, will be thrilled to imply that something untoward has happened when the Super Tuesday count changes in a few weeks.

          Offshore Oil/NatGas is our Strategic Reserve. Save it for when the rest of the world runs out.

          by Inland on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:54:40 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  You can't be serious n/t (0+ / 0-)

    by boydog on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:55:28 AM PDT

  •  1090 - 1048 HRC lead is WORST case for HRC (0+ / 0-)

    This is if the NBC 'best case BHO ST scenario' comes true (849 BHO, 829 HRC {not counting either Am Samoa, Dems Abroad [Total = 10 delegates]}).

    A. Super Delegates, from RealClearPolitics.com and CBSNews.com:

    HRC: 211
    BHO: 128

    B. Early state delgs won:

    HRC: 48
    BHO: 63

    C. Total 'A' + 'B':

    HRC: 259 (211 + 48)
    BHO: 191 (128 + 63)

    D. NBC's BHO 'best case scenario' for ST (- 10 AM Sam, DA delgs):

    HRC: 829
    BHO: 849

    E. Total 'C' + 'D':

    HRC: 1088 (259 + 829)
    BHO: 1040 (191 + 849)

    F. + Hillary already won Am Samoa, 2-1

    HRC: 1090
    BHO: 1041

    G. + If BHO shuts out HRC in the 7 delegates avail. from Dems. Abroad:

    HRC: 1090

    BHO: 1048

    That is, Hillary would still be up by 42 delegates when Super Tuesday is all said and done, with all delegates considered (including superdelegates), IF everything goes BHO's way according to NBC and if BHO wins Dems Abroad 7-0.

    Barack Obama, at best -- without either FLA or MI considered -- trails by a minimum of 42 delegates, and he trails in the popular vote of all voters in the Democratic primaries and caucuses so far during this nomination process. Not to mention how much he trails by in the popular vote if crossover GOPers and Indy popular votes are discounted.

    Any way you slice it, HRC is still ahead, both in delegates and in the popular vote.

    Refs:

    RCP: Dem delegate totals
    CBS News: Dem delegate totals
    NBC: Super Tuesday delegate numbers

    ABC hits home run in debate

    by Universal on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 04:56:13 AM PDT

    •  Don't bother them (1+ / 1-)

      Recommended by:
      eagle5
      Hidden by:
      DelRPCV

      with facts, they have their faith, they have their hymnal, and by Barack, they're going to sing their song.

      by jsmdlawyer on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 05:01:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  See, why did you have to go there? (2+ / 0-)

        Recommended by:
        DelRPCV, a wolf raised by boys

        From above...

        Not even the Clinton campaign is claiming that they won the delegate count on Tuesday.

        In the end of the day Obama won a negligible delegate victory.

        HRC does hold a lead in Superdelegates, but there are 400+ outstanding Superdelegates, which dwarfs the number EITHER of them currently has and those will probably go, en masse, to whomever is winning the elected delegate count at the end of the day.

        Do with this as you wish.

        If you think the terrorist fist jab is bad... you need to see his terrorist Hokey-Pokey.

        by JeffLieber on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 05:06:00 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's the contempt again. nt (0+ / 0-)

          Offshore Oil/NatGas is our Strategic Reserve. Save it for when the rest of the world runs out.

          by Inland on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 05:13:32 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  More faith based analysis (0+ / 0-)

          those will probably go, en masse, to whomever is winning the elected delegate count at the end of the day.

          Really?  A superdelegate who publicly committed to Hillary Clinton and worked for her is going to get to the convention and say "well, y'know, it just wouldn't be FAIR for me to vote for Clinton since those other delegates are voting for Obama.  I'd better go over and join them"?

          What empirical evidence, either the statements of such superdelegates or prior history, do you have for such an astonishing claim?

          And if Clinton is narrowly ahead on pledged delegates as the convention approaches, do you similarly "expect" that the Obama superdelegates will swarm "en masse" to Clinton?  Or is this a one-way faith based analysis?

          by jsmdlawyer on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 05:15:26 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]