Nature Abhors a Vacuum, or The Growing Pressure to Know Who Will Face McCain

Nature abhors a vacuum.  We all know this, and just the other day I saw a bunch of trees kicking the crap out of an Electrolux.  Now that John McCain is the de facto Republican nominee, we're going to see increasing pressure, fomented by our restless, adolescent media, to clarify his Democratic opponent in the General Election.

Follow me down for my analysis.  Why?  Because I've been predicting since late summer that McCain would be the Republican nominee, and I therefore must be right about everything else.

Ever since Super Tuesday night, and building considerably with Mitt's sad, sad withdrawal yesterday, the media have been talking much more about which Democrat poses a greater challenge to McCain. Obama seems to be the more common choice, aided by the recent poll showing him beating McCain, with Hillary tied.  But more generally, this meme is going to help Obama, aided as it is by a potent combination of statistical evidence, well-established memes about Hillary Hatred on the right, and the increasing ubiquity of anecdotal support of Republicans for Obama.  I'm sure there are conservatives -- mostly women -- who would support Hillary.  But given the paucity of anecdotal evidence, it seems that she's suffering from these voters' reluctance to declare their preference.  Obama's success story this primary season, on the other hand, is based partly upon his appeal to non-Democrats.

Now that McCain is the de facto Republican candidate, the question of which Democrat makes the stronger GE opponent has lost its theoretical air.  Not too long ago, folks had to consider this question along multiple vectors, i.e., which one can beat Romney or Guiliani or Huckabee?  Of course, a lot of us thought the answer was "anyone besides Mike Gravel."  Now, however, we have Mr. Maverick as our opponent, and the key considerations are going to clarify quickly.

Some opinions from this Obama supporter:

1.  Hillary hatred on the right is real, and perhaps more importantly is perceived to be real.  It will be cited ad nauseam as perhaps the only way to unify conservatives in support of John McCain, and it will hurt her in the primaries.

2.  With either Clinton or Obama, we'll see gender and racial gaps, with women and minorities more likely to support the Democrat.  I'm not sure I'd buy right now any argument that women and Latinos would be less likely to vote should Obama be the nominee.  With African Americans, I think there's likely to be a little dropoff in actual voting if Clinton is the nominee, because I think they're a less certain voting bloc than are women generally, and we've already seen how the prospect of electing a black president has led to huge turnout in this bloc.  The big question is the size of the Republican advantage among white men.  There's no question in my mind that the gap would be larger if Clinton is the nominee.  There's a welter of considerations here, and I don't know how they'll affect perceptions of who's more likely to beat McCain.

3.  We're seeing in the Democratic contests a considerable age gap, which I believe would persist if Obama is our nominee.  This gap works both ways: First, older voters consistently prefer Clinton, and I think they would prefer McCain over Obama.  This hurts us most especially in Florida, but I find myself ready to believe the Florida Kossack who asserted that his state is already beyond our reach.  In other states with high proportions of older voters, I think Obama's appeal to younger voters at the minimum would offset McCain's advantage with the over-65 crowd.

4.  Low-income voters have also favored Hillary.  I have no idea how their votes would shift in the GE, but I suspect that, as they're also more likely to be low-information voters, they would be more likely to support McCain out of ignorance of his record or policy positions.  In the primaries, I think they'll continue to favor Clinton.

5.  Perhaps most importantly for the near-term effects on undecided primary voters and caucusgoers, our choice of nominee will have a profound effect on the tenor of the GE campaign.  In a sense, it becomes a question not only of who do you want to be our nominee? but also of what do you want to hear about endlessly this fall?, and this latter question I think significantly aids Obama.  Face it, if Clinton is our nominee, we're going to hear endlessly about "the culture wars of the '90's," about "the co-presidency" and "how much conservatives hate Hillary."  We've been allowed to ignore up to now the extent to which she is a lightning rod in conservative circles, but we'll be reminded continually from here on out.  If Obama is the nominee, we'll hear a mix of "historic firsts" and "potential racial divide."  But let's face it, one of our candidates comes with a lot of baggage, fairly or unfairly.  Call it "the perception of a lot of baggage."  I think that perception will weigh heavily on a lot of voters.

Finally, the increasing pressure to determine our nominee is going to magnify perceptions of momentum.  Given that most of the remaining states in February favor Obama, this urge for clarity favors him.  And given the numbers of undecided voters, the thing to watch for here will be the presence or absence of strong last-minute swings toward one candidate.  The effect could be powerful both symbolically and practically: As we've seen, a narrow primary victory may not actually yield an advantage in delegates, whereas a big victory tips the allocation of delegates strongly in the winner's favor.  In other words, if undecideds break strongly in Obama's favor in the next week's contests, he could by the 13th have both a real advantage in pledged delegates and the perception of major momentum--which will translate into actual momentum.  Then the Clinton campaign will feel increasing pressure to try some negative campaigning, and the meme of Clinton divisiveness and "the political wars of the '90's" will be reinforced.  To put it another way, if Bill starts speaking out again, making dog-whistle statements, he'll reinforce these memes.

Or maybe I'm completely wrong.  But I was right about McCain -- even when he was penniless and in fifth or sixth place in the national polls.

•  re:Tips and Flames?

  by deminva on Fri Feb 08, 2008 at 07:29:19 AM PDT

•  Vote/No Vote

  I've already been reading republican incumbents saying they can't wait to have Hillary as the Dem candidate. Not a pundit, an elected official.

  Hillary hatred isn't just among conservatives and republicans.  As evidenced on these boards, there are a lot of liberal dems who would vote for her either not at all, or only under duress.

  So, all the demographic stuff we're seeing as to who gets what votes is valid, I think MOSTLY for this primary cycle.

  If Obama is the nominee, I see high dem voter turnout, lots of independents voting Obama, with some Obamacans as well.  People who are older (like me) are not going to just roll over and vote for the old white guy because there's a young black guy running.

  Dem women aren't just going to vote for McCain because Hillary didn't get the nod.  And Hispanics, while probably not happy about it, won't vote for the guy who wants a 100 year war, just because the dem candidate is black.

  I really kind of feel sorry for Hillary right now.  She calculated her run based on a weakened republican party, and no one being able to stand up to the Clinton machine.  

  She didn't calculate the Obama variable.

  He has proven that he can take on the Clinton bulldozer on every front.  There is lots of dirt to be had on McCain. Yesterday at the conservative forum, McCain made a point of reassuring his audience that he will be nominating conservative justices to the SCOTUS.  That in itself is scarier than hell.  This should become an issue for the dems in the remaining primaries. There is more dirt to be had on the Clintons.

  We Democrats can have a Democratic president next year, if, and only if, his name is Obama.

  by pvlb on Fri Feb 08, 2008 at 08:41:34 AM PDT