Hillary & The Habsburgs: Solution by Self-Destruction
Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 04:11:02 PM PDT
Being a European History nerd (I'm very slowly getting my doctorate with night classes) I have an almost irrepressable urge to compare events and places in history. I've lately been reading up on the histories of Poland and Austria, and I have just lately hit upon a parallel of sorts. In their quest to cling to power, to cling to relevance, to claim the mantle of "civilization," such as it was, Hillary's campaign is starting to remind me of the Habsburgs' self-destructive quest for relevance which ended with Austria-Hungary's dissolution in 1919, effectively erasing what had been a major power for over three centuries.
Existing in Greatness
One of the Habsburgs' great fears was irrelevancy. They had, by 1914, been coping with the fear for a long time, and were determined to act on it. The Empire had survived not because it was beloved by its inhabitants, but because foreign powers viewed it as necessary to the balance of power and because many of its inhabitants feared the chaos that would accompany it's destruction. Hillary has been allowed to succeed in the Democratic party for much te same reasons. Democratic voters found her useful in keeping a Senate seat in their hands, and whatever problems they may justifiably have with her, she kept the seat away from the Republicans and prevented the many lower-ranking state Dmeocrats from arguing over who should occupy it. For a time, both Hillary and the Habsburgs tolerated this arrangement; it kept them relevant and it kept them at least marginally involved with world events. But by 1914 it was apparent that the Empire, while still a force of some strength, was not the great determining power it's dynasty has wished to build. Here, we see the decline of Clinton after her election, as the party nominates Kerry and Edwards with little to no thought of even asking Bill or Hillary whom they would have picked. Kerry lost, but it was he (and Howard Dean) who were now the dominant voices, just as a Germany defeated at Algecrias was nevertheless seen afterward as the dominant power in Central Europe. The Clintons and Habsburgs had failed to continue to exist in greatness. Mediocrity was unacceptable, and they determined to find a way to recover themselves.
Reclaiming Power: 1908 and 2006
Reclaiming their "vital place" was the mission of both Clinton and Habsburg in lead ups to World War I and 2008. Just as Bill went on tour with Bush to promote Katrina relief, and Hillary trumpeted her fundraising numbers against anemic GOP opposition, so too the Habsburgs became involved with the Boxer Rebellion suppression and the annexation of Bosnia in 1900 and 1908 respectively. Both were designed to show that the dynasties were far from finished, but both ultimately showed how hollow the claims of greatness had become. Austria-Hungary had merely torn a province from the crumbling Ottoman Empire which she had administered for 30 years, and the Boxer participation was limited to a small contingent that dwarfed even the French's small offering. Similarly, Bill had to team up with Bush to give his plea for help the extra weight he desired, and Hillary's fundraising numbers were more indictaive of her incumbency than her true support.In each case, at attempt to demonstrate greatness merely masked a decline in power and influence; both were grasping for relevance in a world increasingly used to not asking their permission.
Solution by Bluster: 1914 and January, 2008
In both camps there was by now a need to assert power by force. In Austria-Hungary, the Chief of the General Staff, Conrad von Hötzendorf, promoted war against, Italy, or Serbia, or at any rate against someone, to reassert that the state's power was still there. Mark Penn promoted Hillary as the "Inevitable" candidate, and essentiqally dared anyone to question this. In both cases, the defiance came from a source that many had dismissed previously; in the case of the Habsburgs, from tiny Serbia, and in the case of the Clintons, from a junior Senator from Illinois. Both threatened not only the victories that the dynasties required to maintain their relevance, but both threatened to expose the dynasties for the empty husks of their former selves which they in fact were. Just as Hötzendorf ticked off numbers of men mobilized and artillery pieces built, all of which masked the Habsburg army's inefficiency and waste, so too the Clinton campign claimed experience that, when closely examined, was not nearly as impressive as it first seemed. Both were at this point relying more on the threat of force than force itself, both hoping, I believe, that bluster alone might carry the day.
Defeat in Battle: 1916 and February, 2008
Eventually the fight, with both Clinton and Habsburg simultaneously welcomed and dreaded, came to pass. In both cases, the insurgent was able to put up surprising resistance, helping to further discredit the dynastic claims of a right to rule. Both Hötzendorf and Solis-Doyle dithered on where and how to best project their strength, ultimately frittering away both money and initiative while continuously claiming that the defeats were inconsequential. Austria-Hungary trumpeted with great fanfare the narrow victory at Krasnik, and Clinton trumpeted her win in TX, both ignoring that strategically they were little better off than before. Both resorted to defending territory they should rightly already hold and labeling it a victory, as the Habsburgs did in Ionzo and the Clintons in Ohio. An increasingly surreal feeling began to be felt at the repective courts; a feeling that surreality increasingly prevailed.
Final Defeat
The Habsburgs' story ended, as the Clinton one seems now fated to do, with bargaining. Emperor Karl, knowing his imperium was fragile, possibly close to disintegration, sent out secret peace feelers to the Allies, offering to federalize the monarchy and grant full democracy, but by then the Central Powers' position was such that the Allies were not interested in such deals. Clinton's offer of VP seems a curious parallel; it had little chance of succeeding, but if it did, it might yet allow the Clintons to cling to relevance, to greatness.
I do not know if the end results will paralle each other. For the sake of the party I hope Clinton does realize the futility of further competition, and the possible bad consequences of a coup by superdelegate. But I believe that, as in 1919, a powerful family will eventually see relaity for what it is, and gamely accept the fate written for it by history
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