Shhhh

There's no "truce".  There's no "cease-fire".  I almost feel like noticing it will jinx it.  But there's no active fighting going on between Israel and Gaza at the moment.  Apparently there are talks, which is the best development I've heard in many months.

Is there anything the US could do now to nudge things in the right direction?

I hope the US does very little right now.  Bush and Condi do nothing very well, and I hope no impulse to grab for a legacy will upset things.  Egypt has the point on this one, and maybe we can stand ready to help them with it.

I would love to see Israel do something positive here.  Maybe make some move unilaterally to ease some of the restrictions on Gaza.

The Israel/Palestine situation has been going on for more than my lifetime, and I see no reason to expect things will get much better between now and 1/20/09.

So instead of the Bush administration, say the Obama administration is in charge.  If you were Obama's Middle East advisor, what moves would you suggest here?

•  Seconded

  which is the best development I've heard in many months.

  I agree completely.  I hope it lasts.

  by weasel on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:30:29 PM PDT

  •  agreed

    just don't hold your breath.

    Aren't they sending Dick Cheney out there.  I can't imagine how he's going to help bring anybody together...

    by MJ via Chicago on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 05:43:28 PM PDT

  •  I'm with you

    Weasel, I don't know if it was you I was talking to, I think it was.  You mentioned whether killing those Hamas leaders a few weeks ago was worth the potential blowback, I said I wasn't sure but you could be right, then I did disapprove of the major action over the weekend a week ago...

    Looks like we were both wrong, I think saving their own skin is a major factor for Hamas and IJ leaders in all of a sudden being interested in a real deal.  If Israel hadn't taken out those leaders and launched an operation, the status quo would just be continuing now.  As monstrous as that is..  Lincoln and FDR made plenty of monstrous decisions themselves.

    Knock on wood, of course.

    by unfounded on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 07:50:03 AM PDT

    •  Dammit,

      Why'd I say anything

      Rockets on Ashkelon end 4 day lull in violence

      My bad, guys.

      by unfounded on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 08:37:19 AM PDT

•  I don't have a really good answer.

  Maybe wait for a bit and see how things proceed. Talk to the various Arab governments separately and reassure them that we'll support any action they take that would be helpful. Of course, if I was Obama's ME adviser I'd have told him to talk to Hamas by now.

  by klizard on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 07:05:25 PM PDT

  •  I really didn't expect one

    On re-reading, it does seem like I'm asking DailyKos for the key to World Peace.  I figure if there's a key out there, someone would have found it by now.

    Talking is key, and I would advise Obama to talk to a whole lot of people.

    by Ralph Kramden on Mon Mar 10, 2008 at 07:36:39 PM PDT

•  About that Cheney visit...

  I can state with absolute certainty that the same two things will happen as with Bush's visit and with Condi's visits:

  1.  He won't accomplish anything;

  2.  Traffic will be a mess.

  by dfb1968 on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 01:21:06 AM PDT

  •  He's just there to show the flag.

    by Pumpkinlove on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 01:48:44 PM PDT

•  Lull over. Rockets fired on Askelon.

  These long range Katyusha rockets again, fired after an eight day lull in Israeli reprisals and the Egyptian mediation efforts.

  According to Reuters:

  The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine claimed responsibility for the rocket strike, the first against Israel since Sunday, saying its "battle against occupation is continuing."

  by Eric S on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 08:37:39 AM PDT

  •  Very interesting that it's PFLP

    That's under the PLO umbrella and theoretically under Fatah.  Of course, if they're in Gaza and managed to actually get ahold of those rockets, they're actually working with Hamas.

    So Hamas has them shoot the rockets, it's a Fatah group!  Hamas isn't responsible.

    by unfounded on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 08:44:21 AM PDT

    •  The bogeymen want nothing but peace! n/t

      by Eric S on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 08:49:31 AM PDT

    •  Another question...

      The Katyusha rockets are bigger, more sophisticated, and thus require a more substantial manufacturing process.  

      Hamas was the last to acknowledge firing them, but it appears that now, any old faction has access to them... does this really make sense?

      by Eric S on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 09:06:42 AM PDT

      •  That's why I conclude

        That it can only be with Hamas's permission and blessing that they have these rockets..  and probably they know full well if they cross Hamas, the supply will dry up.

        Therefore, Hamas likely blessed this particular attack, breaking an 8 day ceasefire.  It's possible, hopeful even that PFLP was acting out of free agency and will be cut off from delivery of more rockets in the future since they've proved themselves irresponsible.  But that's likely wishful thinking, given the evidence we have.

        by unfounded on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 09:12:56 AM PDT

        •  Yes, plausible lie-ability. n/t

          by Eric S on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 09:15:01 AM PDT

      •  Hamas is being trained in Iran and

        have brought back trainers.. maybe they are sharing.

        by Pumpkinlove on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 01:49:28 PM PDT

  •  Katyusha?

    Do you have any particular evidence that it was a katyusha rocket?

    by weasel on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 11:34:38 AM PDT

    •  Qassams can't reach Ashkelon

      Could be a more advanced mark II qassam of some kind but I'll go with the simplest answer at this point..  they were firing Katyushas at Ashkelon a week ago cause Qassams couldn't reach, why not now

      by unfounded on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 11:54:55 AM PDT

      •  Israeli intelligence disagrees

        They've made the claim that soon Palestinians will be able to manufacture an "unlimited" number of rockets that can reach Ashkelon.  And some Qassams have reached Ashkelon in the past.

        by weasel on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 12:19:28 PM PDT

        •  Operative word, "soon"

          Listen man I have nothing invested in this being a Katyusha or a jerkmeoff mark IV missile, last week Katyushas were hitting Ashkelon because the current Qassams can't reach, I think it's reasonable to conclude, absent other evidence, that this week it's the same story.

          Any comment on Hamas's responsibility for this attack from their territory and likely with their weapons, breaking the ceasefire?  Are you going to make the argument that the 5 teenagers constituting PFLP manufactured better missiles than Hamas can manufacture on their own?

          by unfounded on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 01:56:42 PM PDT

          •  Operative word also "past"

            Since Qassams have hit Ashkelon in the past, nothing prevents them from doing so in the future.

            I have no idea who fired the missile, though I see no reason to doubt PFLP's claim.  One wonders why they are doing so.  They obvious reason would be to spike the truce and restart a fight between Hamas and the IDF.  

            That would be bad.  I'm against it.  I won't bother asking your opinion since you've long since made it clear.  

            by weasel on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 03:14:44 PM PDT

            •  Yeah, I'm against it too

              I'm just of the opinion that since PFLP has roughly the capabilities of your local high school football team when it comes to military action, they prob got the missiles from Hamas.

              Hopefully, they were being free agents and Hamas will put a stop to it while Israel holds off from overreaction in the short term.

              And you're right that Qassams have hit Ashkelon before I think, I remembered reading about a few incidents after posting that..  not that it matters which kind of missile it is.  

              by unfounded on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 04:17:11 PM PDT

•  Tell him it won't be solved by

  hope and change.

  by Pumpkinlove on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 01:44:12 PM PDT

  •  On the contrary

    As you point out, hope and change are not sufficient.  But they are necessary.  Or are the current administration policies working?

    The change I'd like to see is a day 1 commitment to work for a resolution, not a last-minute scramble for a "legacy".

    by Ralph Kramden on Wed Mar 12, 2008 at 05:34:15 AM PDT