Exit polls MS - Republicans, White Indep vote Clinton?

Conservative people who like McCain and don't like Democrats made up over 40% of Hillary's primary vote totals in Mississippi!  Pelosi we need you!!!

Republicans (13% of turnout) and White Independents (another 13% of turnout) gave a big boost to Hillary in MS, making up a large portion of her support.

70%  of those who said neither Clinton nor Obama have a clear plan for the country picked clinton
74% of those who said both do picked Obama

74% of those who have a strongly favorable opinion of Mccain picked Clinton
75% of those who have a strongly unfavorable opinion picked Obama

25% of those who say that Clinton is not honest and trustworthy picked clinton
7% of those who say that Obama is not honest and trustworthy picked Obama

19% of those who say that clinton does not inspire them, voted for clinton
4% of those who say that obama does not inspire them, voted for obama.

87% of those who are inspired by neither clinton nor obama voted for clinton

78% of Republicans picked clinton
59% of White independents picked clinton

56% of conservatives picked clinton

from reading the CNN exit polls

It looks like Republicans and White Independents saved the day for Hillary. There seem to be a sizable minority of Hillary voters who: like McCain, think she is not trustworthy, and are not inspired by her? She scored big on the voters who are not inspired by her or Obama...

Interesting.  if 13% R + 13% white independents voted for Hil, this would be 26% of total turnout, and close to 50% 40% of her total vote??? Am I figuring this correctly?

Repubs + White Independents as percentage of total turnout has more than doubled since Alabama's primary.

From comments: below

Identification  Clinton  Obama
Democrat        22.4%    46.9%
Republican      10.0%     3.0%
Independent      8.2%     8.7%

I got each of these figures by multiplying the pecentage of the electorate in each self-identification category times the percentage that each candidate got.  I'm not sure whether it only adds up to 99.2% because of rounding error, or because of votes going to other candidates.

As I figure it, this means that 44.8% of Clinton's vote came from Republicans or Independents, and 24.6% of her vote came from Republicans.  Given the fact that many of these Republicans are people who think very highly of McCain, it seems quite likely that they're Hillary's Limbaugh contingent.

•  ok, gotta go. so this diary aint formatted

  too well.

  but am I reading the stats right? is it possible that about 50% of her vote came from non-dems?

  by biscobosco on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:03:43 PM PDT

  •  The Limbaugh & Conservative Talk Radio...

    ...pushed this - it hadn't happened anywhere else - started happening in Texas due to Republicans not having anything else to do.

    by there will be blood on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:18:02 PM PDT

    •  course that means they dont get to vote

      R in local races...

      by biscobosco on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:32:10 PM PDT

  •  More than that, it's incorrect.

    You claim 40% of her votes came from republicans, but then show that repubs were only 13% of turnout.

    She currently has 47% of the overall vote.

    Plus, when Obama was getting the republican vote, he was praised. What gives?

    by MouseOfSuburbia on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:49:29 PM PDT

    •  No I say "REPUBS and WHITE INDEPENDENTS

      by biscobosco on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 07:07:36 PM PDT

•  In Alabama

  Repubs were 52-45 for Hillary. In other states, Obama used to be winning big with crossover Republicans.

  What changed? McCain sewed up the nomination and GOPers decided to f*** with the Dems by voting for Hillary en masse.

  by Nathaniel Ament Stone on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:04:56 PM PDT

  •  That's pretty clear that that's what happened.

    That's part of why blacks were only 49% of the vote.

    by DemocraticLuntz on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:06:09 PM PDT

    •  80% straight up racists

      plus 20% Limbaugh-inspired "strategic voters" who happen to also be racists even if this particular vote was intended to prevent McCain from going up against the better qualified Black guy.

      Don't think for a minute Ferraro's comments weren't directed at these folks.

      by Christopher Day on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:15:08 PM PDT

      •  In Texas

        CNN estimated 13%, more than enough to cover Clinton's margin of error.

        by MrMichaelMT on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:31:13 PM PDT

  •  racist vote

    The racist vote is breaking heavily for HRC.

    by Nathan in MN on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:08:00 PM PDT

    •  racists and republicans

      a match made in heaven.

      by biscobosco on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:16:57 PM PDT

    •  You're a racist for saying that. n/t

      by MouseOfSuburbia on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:50:17 PM PDT

  •  yup

    instead of the southern strategy, we have the Limbaugh-ger strategy. It stinks.

    by biscobosco on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:09:31 PM PDT

  •  Where did you get 52%-45%?

    CNN.com is reporting that Hillary won among Republicans 77%-23%.

    by leevank on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:24:09 PM PDT

    •  in alabama?

      by biscobosco on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:24:44 PM PDT

      •  Oops, I misread it

        I thought you were talking about Mississippi.  No more beer for me.

        by leevank on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:45:39 PM PDT

    •  here ya go

      in alabama
      White Independents(9% of turnout) voted Hillary 64%
      Republicans (5% of turnout ) voted Hillary 52%

      so turnout non-dems voting in dem primary rose dramatically, and Hillary got a nice boost in both White Independent, and Republican vote (though her R vote boost was larger)

      I am not sure how closely Alabama and MS compare, since I dont know much about the south, but those are the exit poll numbers.
      http://www.cnn.com/...

      by biscobosco on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:31:23 PM PDT

    •  Be fair...

      They only accounted for 13 percent of the turnout.

      Be honest, people. Lies are lies.

      by MouseOfSuburbia on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:51:18 PM PDT

•  strategic voting

  by kubla000 on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:05:18 PM PDT

•  racial divide

  I think this is the beginning of the racial divide in the primary and probably into general election, especially in the south

  by Secretasianman on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:08:44 PM PDT

  •  I dunno.

    its a regional/racial divide definitely. Plenty of Whites in Texas voting for Obama. and plenty in very white WI, and VT.

    I dont know that the race voting among dems was any different. The difference was that so many Republicans voted for Hilary.

    i do think it is the Limbaugher effect.

    by biscobosco on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:15:57 PM PDT

    •  racial divide

      will only really exist in the south. Look at Alabama and parts of Georgia and Louisiana, Clinton won white Democratic areas, Obama won black Democratic areas. It only exists in the deep south I think, not in Vermont, Alaska, Wisconsin, Idaho, etc.

      by nrafter530 on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:17:31 PM PDT

      •  yeh.

        by biscobosco on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:24:14 PM PDT

•  Hey, It's Mississippi

  What do you expect out of that state?  It will go for McCain by something like 68-32, with the 32 being all the African American voters.

  by tailor324 on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:20:41 PM PDT

•  They are playing head games

  This is what I've been commenting on for days. The exit polls in Texas showed that those who were most conservative went for Clinton. These are NOT crossover votes. They are shams.

  Now remember, Pennsylvania is a closed primary. I believe it will be a lot closer than the polls show.

  by MrMichaelMT on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:30:24 PM PDT

•  You're close to right

  Interesting.  if 13% R + 13% white independents voted for Hil, this would be 26% of total turnout, and close to 50% 40% of her total vote??? Am I figuring this correctly?

  Here's how I compute the percentages of the total electorate:

  Identification  Clinton  Obama
  Democrat        22.4%    46.9%
  Republican      10.0%     3.0%
  Independent      8.2%     8.7%

  I got each of these figures by multiplying the pecentage of the electorate in each self-identification category times the percentage that each candidate got.  I'm not sure whether it only adds up to 99.2% because of rounding error, or because of votes going to other candidates.

  As I figure it, this means that 44.8% of Clinton's vote came from Republicans or Independents, and 24.6% of her vote came from Republicans.  Given the fact that many of these Republicans are people who think very highly of McCain, it seems quite likely that they're Hillary's Limbaugh contingent.

  by leevank on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:44:31 PM PDT

  •  yeah thanks.

    you include black independents, and I factored them out, because I figured very few black independents were "paradoxical limbaugh voters" while quite a few Inds will be.

    So it looks like my orig guesstimate of 50% was close to the mark.

    Lets see how Hillary spins this. I think its a big deal, and I hope that Dem Leadership is going to take notice.

    by biscobosco on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 06:55:06 PM PDT

•  Obama did fine with white Democrats

  I really hope he points that out, and others as well.  Saw on TPM "Whites go for Clinton, Blacks for Obama" and it's simply not the case.  He got, what, at least 40% of white Democrats?

  by jakester on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 07:29:39 PM PDT

  •  I dont think so..

    better than white republicans, (well there arent a statiscally significant number of black republicans anyway)

    but not so good. only 30%

    if you average white non-repubs (D and Ind) he gets only 35%.

    but 78% of Repubs voting voted for Hil.

    among whites, he did best among independents.

    by biscobosco on Tue Mar 11, 2008 at 10:08:42 PM PDT