"...At the Expense of Everything Else"
Wed Mar 12, 2008 at 09:40:50 PM PDT
Cross-posted on MyDD.
Merry Christmas, John McCain!
Well, in a year where all of the signs were pointing to decisive Democratic victory in the November general election, the progressive movement is imploding, deadlocked on how to handle controversial primary votes cast in Michigan and Florida and bickering over controversial comments made by 1984 Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro.
Be you a Clinton partisan or an Obama partisan, the headlines should be making you very nervous right now. The racial tensions that exploded after the New Hampshire and buried at the Nevada debate have exploded again and neither campaign seems likely to back down.
The cycle of offense and apology — on racial grounds and others — has become a familiar feature of this campaign. But both campaigns swerved deliberately from the pattern Tuesday, choosing confrontation over delicate compromise.
Ms. Ferraro's resignation from Hillary Clinton's finance committee, a largely ceremonial post for major fundraisers, is unlikely to end the turmoil, especially with progressive MSNBC commentator Keith Olbermann making a special comment on Hillary's campaign on tonight's show. From the Huffington Post:
It's a significant moment, because it marks the first time a full-throated special comment will have been directed exclusively at a Democrat. Not just the Democrats, whom Olbermann accused along with the Republicans last May for failing to do anything to get the country out of Iraq, but one particular Democrat — a Democrat whom, incidentally, he did a special comment defending in July after the Defense Dept. sent her a letter accusing her of facilitating anti-U.S. propaganda by demanding to know whether the administration had conceived of an exit strategy from Iraq.
I stopped downloading Olbermann's podcasts last summer because I felt that his angry tone was not good for the progressive movement and I often felt negative emotions--anger, frustration, grief--after listening to his shows. This will have the effect of driving away even more Clinton supporters from his show and further dividing progressive activists.
As if the racial tensions were enough, the momentum toward re-votes in Michigan and Florida has come to a halt, with the Florida Democratic Congressional Delegation declaring its opposition to any kind of re-vote:
"Our House delegation is opposed to a mail-in campaign or any redo of any kind," the state's Democratic House delegation said in a statement sent to CNN by the office of Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
Senator Clinton would prefer to seat the delegations in their current form, which would net her between 56 and 111 delegates, depending on how the uncommitted delegates in Michigan are allocated. That said, she is willing to hold new primary contests. The Obama campaign, however, appears to be opposed to holding new primary contests, perhaps preferring to split the delegates 50-50:
Mr. Obama’s did not spell out his Plan B, but he said that any revote would be problematic, particularly if conducted by mail in Michigan and Florida, two states that have never conducted a mail-in election. He said he would like to see the Michigan and Florida delegations seated in an "equitable" way, without spelling out what that would mean.
Obama advisers declined on Wednesday to say what a fair distribution of delegates would look like but have floated a plan to apportion the delegates 50-50, wiping out any advantage that Mrs. Clinton might have gained from the votes in January and essentially making the two states meaningless in the nomination fight.
As I wrote a few days ago, polling data has made it very clear that, despite Senator Obama's belief to the contrary, he will not automatically receive Senator Clinton's supporters should he be the nominee, especially if she goes down under heavy fire of racial accusations and unresolved votes in the Florida and Michigan. Polling data in Michigan has made it very clear that the core supporters of both candidates have no compunction about voting for John McCain should their candidate lose.
If Clinton wins the nomination, just 50% of Obama voters say they would be even somewhat likely to vote for her against John McCain. Thirty-five percent (35%) say they are Not at All Likely to vote for Clinton in the general election.
On the other hand, if Obama wins the nomination, just 52% of Clinton voters would be even somewhat likely to vote for him against John McCain. Twenty-five percent (25%) say they are Not at All Likely to vote for Obama in the general election.
Racial politics. Illegitimate elections. With the progressive movement spiraling toward a train wreck, I can’t help but recall the words of Simon Bolivar, the South American revolutionary whose movement helped to free a continent from colonial rule, only to it slip into the chaos of civil conflict:
"We have achieved our independence at the expense of everything else."
With the wind at our backs, with the progressive movement on the verge of a great victory in the fall, are we going to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? Is the nominee going to clinch the nomination at the expense of alienating a crucial part of the progressive coalition?
It’s time for the adults to intervene to prevent this tragedy from unfolding. Al Gore, it’s time to pick up the phone.
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