Seven Percent

It's worth mentioning that in October 2007, only 7% separated Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the dKos reader straw poll. By the end of January, that gap had grown to 65%.

Is that because the Clinton supporters left in droves? No.

The most recent dKos reader poll that I found, from 1/30/2008, was right after John Edwards left the race.

Obama's support went from 41% to 76%. It was only the second time that Edwards did not lead the dKos straw poll dating back to 12/2006 (which was the first poll following former frontrunner Russ Feingold's announcement that he would not run). Obama's low point was in October 2007, when his support dropped to 16%, behind Edwards and Chris Dodd, who at 21% that month received a huge bounce for standing up on FISA.

Clinton's support went from 9% to 11% in the 1/30/2007 poll, a gain of 2%. It has never gone higher than 11%, and has been as low as 3% (using the same 12/2006 endpoint -- though if one goes back farther, it was at 2% in early-mid 2006).

Clinton, her campaign, and/or her supporters failed to win the hearts and minds of dKos readers, plain and simple. It wasn't happening over the course of 2007, and surely it won't happen now, barring some sensational, earth-shattering news about Obama.

•  Glad you made your comment into a diary...

  ... thanks.

  by highacidity on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 12:21:17 AM PDT

  •  For future reference

    Thought it might be worthwhile to restate it in diary form, yes -- thanks for your encouragement.

    by wanderindiana on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 12:25:43 AM PDT

•  The comment that got me going.

  The Edwards people, and HRC the lightning rod

  This is a comment in two parts that might just go together, I don't know.

  Edwards supporters dominated this site, once upon a time.

  I believe many are still here, and that more of them broke for Obama when Edwards bowed out of the race. I, for one, fit that description. And I'd guess that Kos' regular straw polls seem to support this theory.

  People should consider that Hillary Clinton has never enjoyed popularity at this site. To boot, given the opportunity to reach out to this community, beginning with her YearlyKos 2007 appearance/near debacle, she and her campaign have only managed to exacerbate the pre-existing hostilities. It's not just that she's a natural lightning rod; it's that she walks into this proverbial storm on stilts, carrying a 10-foot steel pole, daring the electricity to defy her.

  And somehow, the lightning bolts still behave like lightning bolts. It shouldn't surprise any of us.

  My two cents.

  by wanderindiana on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 12:35:25 AM PDT

•  Plenty left

  Plenty left in droves.

  I remember many of them, some of whom were long time posters who've been here for years. Now I see them on more balanced or pro-hillary sites and never see them posting here anymore.

  Now I can count on one hand the Hillary supporters I see -- and even then they are few and far between.

  by GregNYC on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 12:59:02 AM PDT

  •  The numbers say otherwise.

    Unless those who left made a point to come back and vote in Kos' straw polls, Clinton's community support from October 2007 through the end of January 2008 remained consistent, near 10%.

    Perhaps they have left over the past month and a half, but there was indeed a point where the difference in support between Obama and Clinton was pretty negligible.

    Of course, many refuse to accept the reality that this community slowly came around to supporting Barack Obama.

    Each side had a near-equal chance to make their points with the community at that moment: one side did, and the other didn't.

    Just sayin'.

    And, btw, if you're interested in trying to explain why the majority of Edwards supporters went for Obama instead of Clinton, I'm listening.

    by wanderindiana on Fri Mar 14, 2008 at 09:20:13 AM PDT