the argument - a contrarian view
Sun Mar 16, 2008 at 04:49:04 AM PDT
As the Democratic primary battle continues, we continue to hear concern that it will damage the party, that we need quickly to come together and refocus our attacks on John McCain and not on one another. After all, many party officials will say, it is hard to imagine any scenario where Clinton can catch up with Obama in elected delegates and only barely possible that she could in popular vote, and of course it is too late for her to catch him in states won. Yesterday I heard this argument from one of the most important Democrats in Virginia, who argued that we needed to get field operations organized as part of a unified party, and it was hard to do that until they knew for whom they were organizing. All of this constitutes the argument
I am an Obama supporter. I fully expect that he will be the nominee at the end of the day. And I have decided that I disagree with this argument, which is the conventional wisdom of most Obama supporters.
As I look back earlier in this cycle, Obama was not an effective debater. The numerous debates have enabled him to hone his skill to the point that he would be a formidable obstacle for any Republican, and clearly will be a commanding presence on a stage with John McCain. That is one indication of the advantages of an extensive campaign.
While I have great concern about the types of attacks offered by the Clinton campaign - and have explained why I view her campaign as a justifiable reason not to support her - I think even these are actually serving a positive purpose. Obama is receiving a far more thorough vetting than he might have received absent a continued vigorous campaign. He has had time and opportunity to work out his responses, and as the coverage of his explanation of Rezko by the Chicago papers demonstrates, this enables him to take even areas of potential weakness and use them to demonstrate once again his strengths - his willingness for transparency, his ability to handlo the questions thrown at him by the press, his core integrity. And in the process he may realize that he is fully capable of winning the press to his side sufficiently to offset whatever McCain has gained over the years in his "straight-talk" approach to the press. And the openness OBama is showing may even force McCain to have to answer questions about things he has avoided in the past as he has used his chumminess with those who cover him to sidestep direct challenges on more troublesome areas.
But what I have written is subtext, and not the core of why I take a contrarian view. That core has two main parts, and a third possible additional one.
The first is I think that by allowing the Clinton campaign to continue further, say through May 6 and NC and Indiana, Clinton supporters will see they have had every opportunity to try to make their case to persuade Democrats to their point of view and will not feel resentful that party elders stepped in and deprived them of that opportunity. At some point it will be necessary to bring the process to an end. As an Obama supporter I do not fret about Pennsylvania. My own opinion is that Clinton will win the state by less than double digits in the popular vote, and I accept the current assessment of Chris Bowers that she is likely to gain an advantage of at most 10 delegates. While people like Mark Penn might want to try to use that as part of their big state argument, the acknowledgment by Governor Rendell that either Obama or Clinton could win the state in the general election will undercut that argument. And absent a huge win in Pennsylvania, which I do not see happening, Obama will win NC , probably comfortably, and will do no worse than split in Indiana. At that point the numbers will be so overwhelming that Clinton will be unable to close the gap. If we assume that at the end of May 6 Obama's lead among elected delegates remains anything near its current margin, of around 150, consider this:
May 13 West Virginia 28
May 20 Kentucky 51
Oregon 52
June 1 Puerto Rico 55
June 3 Montana 16
South Dakota 15
TOTAL additional 217
Now those numbers include District-level, At-large and PLEO delegates, but not super-delegates. And even were Clinton to win 70% of these delegates, which is not really possible, she would still trail in total delegates. In fact, were Obama to go into May 13 with a 150 elected delegate lead, and he were to do no better than split the 73 delegates in Oregon, MT and SD 36-37, there would be less delegates left (144) than his margin.
So at some point the numbers will become impossible. Not yet, not even after Pennsylvania.
In the meantime, the process of continuing the primary contest means that Obama staffers and volunteers are out making every effort at registering additional voters - in Pennsylvania some of what is happening is getting independents and Republicans to re-register as Democrats, and in all states it is getting new voters to register for the first time. I think it might be easier to get people to register when they are going to vote in the very near term - a primary or caucus - rather than 5-6 months in the future in a general election. I believe the continued primary contest means the Democratic party has a chance to significantly expand the electorate in its favor, and this will have positive consequences not only in the presidential contest, but also in down-ballot races. At the same time the Obama campaign and local Democrats will have the opportunity to develop networks and structures that will be useful in the general election campaign.
There is an additional reason, but one which can cut both ways. A continued contest means a continuation of intense media scrutiny. Granted, that could magnify any missteps, and of course reporter will be inclined to maximize any possible discord they detect between the camps of Clinton and Obama, as it makes for a good story line. But in the meantime, it provides massive free media, during a period of time when McCain may have struggle for media oxygen. And the continued high visibility of Obama will get people more used to the idea of seeing him as commander in chief, as someone who would be coming into their living rooms for four years as their president.
So that is my contrarian view. I think it is beneficial for the primary contest to continue, with vigorous competition, at least through May 6. I think overall it will benefit Obama in the Fall. And as an Obama supporter, I believe the continued scrutiny is to his long-term benefit.
I suspect that many reading this will disagree in part or in full with my analysis. So be it. And Clinton supporters are likely to argue that even after May 6 it is still possible that she could close the elected delegate count toa point where the superdelegates could make the difference in her favor. About that latter point, I think it worth noting that if one divides superdelegates into elected office holders and others, Obama is now either ahead or even among elected superdelegates, and Clinton's entire margin comes from DNC officials and the like. And I think those superdelegates who must directly face the voters would be very reluctant to overturn the nation wide decision of millions of Americans in giving Obama a clear majority of elected delegates. At the end of the day, I will be surprised if his margin among elected delegates is much lower than his current margin, and I would be shocked if it drops below 100. And then, having survived a vigorous contest he will be a better position to reach out to Clinton supporters, who will feel that they have had a more sufficient opportunity to make the case for their candidate, to bring the party together, and to take advantage of the excitement and interested generated by the continued contest.
What do you think?
Peace.
