The math still isn't HRC friendly

OK - After seeing some of the notorious "non-reality" based people discuss how HRC is up 26 in PA and "closing" in NC, I wanted to bring us all back to reality.

I did a small bit of analysis on the elections between now and the convention.

Join me below the fold.

Current Count of delegates (source: Real Clear Politics):

Cat:  pledged   supers      total
HRC:  1246       248        1494
BHO:  1414       213        1627

Being VERY charitable, suppose that HRC takes PA 60/40, West VA, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico also at 60/50.

And even more charitably, they split the other states 50/50 (with an odd rounding up to HRC)

Cat:  pledged   supers      total
HRC:  1666       248        1879
BHO:  1561       213        1809

Ignoring (for a moment) the 105 pledged delegate lead, HRC finishes the nomination race 70 delegates behind.

For her to get to 2025, she would need another 216 super delegates to give her 2025.  With 334 currently unpledged, she would need about 65% of them to go to her.

That assumes no new defections and a very charitable split of the remaining pledged delegates.

Sorry - I just don't see it happening.

Update: Math Corrected.  Never was my strong suit.

•  Tips and Flames

  I just don't get why the supporters don't see this.

  by DrWolfy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 08:58:34 AM PDT

•  Its over and has been for...

  sometime. So all the noise between the supporters should be redirected against McBush.

  by CTDemoFarmer on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:01:49 AM PDT

•  She has her own math

  

  and that is our problem.

  by Seattlite on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:06:16 AM PDT

•  Yes she is eliminated. No she will not quit.

  HRC is going to take the party down in flames with her.

  Arrogance, entitlement and ambition.

  Nope, I will not vote for her.  Ever.  And that is a change in my positin since the fall based entirely on her conduct in this election.

  by 7November on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:06:34 AM PDT

•  Did you transpose some numbers?

  They dont seem to make sense to me...

  by Craziel on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:06:53 AM PDT

•  You might want to proofread this

  The numbers don't add up across (notably BHOs delegates should be 1627, not 1246 in the first table).

  by kaptanoglu on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:06:54 AM PDT

  •  Fixed... thanks.

    by DrWolfy on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:15:23 AM PDT

  •  same with hrc's

    1246+248=1494 not 1414

    In fact, overall the math in this diary is sooooo flawed that it should probably be deleted or corrected.

    by jeroly on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:15:41 AM PDT

•  I think

  it's not that the Hill campaign is ignorant to the fact presented soo clearly by DrWolfy. It's because of the nature of Hillary and her supporters to have what's called a "group-think" syndrome. That's why no matter how you wanna explain or enlighten them, there's no chance that they will really change.

  God Bless Obama!!

  by jakartaman on Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 09:28:48 AM PDT